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Dear Fay, The 11th voices uk delegation to Iraq were given a short document written by UNICEF's representative in Baghdad, Carol de Rooy entitled 'Household Food Security in Iraq: Some Food for Thought' and dated 20th February 2002. Noting that 'households' dependency on the food rations has evolved over the past decade to almost total dependency' de Rooy writes that 'As the psychological warfare against Iraq continues to be waged, the nightmare scenario that emerges is the (involuntary or voluntary) interruption of the food-basket that is distributed to all Iraqi families on a monthly basis.' Noting that 'food market prices are extremely sensitive to any changes in the political arena' and that 'after September 11th, the prices of the food-basket itsm increased drastically and the WFP [World Food Programme] had to intervene' he goes on to pose three questions: a) What is the likelihood of the food distribution in S/C [South / Centre] Iraq being interrupted in the near future? b) What would happen in terms of security of food distribution were interrupted? and c) Does the WFP have the capacity to rapidly distribute 350,000 metric tons / month [ie. the current Government food ration] in S/C Iraq if required? The note continues: 'We believe that interruption of food distribution is possible. Pregnant and lactating women as well a yopung children are the most likely victims. Chaos would be the immediate effect. Very rapid intervention by the WFP (in the midst of chaos) would be required to avoid further deterioration of malnutrition and even famine on a large scale.' The following extracts from Save the Children's recent document 'Iraq advocacy strategy, March 2002' concerning the impact of military intervention on children in Iraq may also be useful: 'Bombing Iraq would lead to a humanitarian disaster for which the international community would bear a heavy responsibility ... The combination of degraded infrastructure and ration dependency is a product of the international community’s policies on Iraq, and the UK accepts in principle this international responsibility. Any attacks that targeted sectors used for ration distribution (eg transport) or for public health (eg water, sanitation, electricity) would be an attack on children’s ability to survive.' The same document notes that: 'The international community is partially responsible for the creation of unprecedented levels of dependency in Iraq through rations: Save the Children’s household economy assessment (HEA) of Northern Iraq has revealed an unprecedented level of ration dependency there . There is no HEA data for the centre and south. However, UN accounts of nutrition, child morbidity and mortality show that aggregate indicators of poverty are worse, which suggests that household economies may be in a worse situation . The ration system needs to be changed, but dependency levels are so high that any shock to the system would lead directly and inevitably to a humanitarian disaster, as any risk-mapping based on Save the Children’s recent HEA would show. 'Iraq’s system of food warehousing and distribution system is vulnerable: Save the Children has no information on the food distribution system in the South and Centre of Iraq. However, the distribution system in the semi-autonomous North gives cause for concern. The MOU between the GOI and the UN specifies that the North’s food reserves should be held in the GOI controlled cities of Kirkuk and Mosul. Save the Children estimates that food stocks in the North would not last more than a few weeks if communications between those cities and the North breaks down. Warehousing and distribution systems in the Centre and South could be equally vulnerable to shock.' Best wishes, Gabriel voices uk -----Original Message----- From: F.Dowker <email@example.com> To: firstname.lastname@example.org <email@example.com> Date: 10 June 2002 12:30 Subject: [casi] study on effects of ``limited war''? > >Dear Dirk, >you wrote >``One very high-ranking official of a UN-related organisation, whose name >I won't reveal (because he asked), told us off the record that there has >been a study about the effects of a limited American invasion, only to >topple SH and to turnover Iraqi leadership. The results of this study are >quite astonishing: there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths among >the civilian population, mainly because of the collapse of the rationing >system and the vulnerable Iraqi economy.'' > >Are you able to give any details about this study? Can we obtain it >without compromising your source? Most list members know >enough about the parlous and precarious state of Iraq's civilian >and economic infrastructure not to need a study to confirm this, >but it would be very useful in countering >pro-war propaganda when war on Iraq is back on the media agenda. >It's always useful to be able to quote a credible study. > >Thanks. > >Fay > > >++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >+ Fay Dowker Physics Department + >+ Queen Mary, University of London + >+ E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org Mile End Road, + >+ Phone: +44-(0)20-7882-5047 London E1 4NS. + >+ Fax: +44-(0)20-8981-9465 + >+ Homepage: http://monopole.ph.qmw.ac.uk/~dowker/home.html + >++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > > > >_______________________________________________ >Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. >To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss >To contact the list manager, email email@example.com >All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk > _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss To contact the list manager, email firstname.lastname@example.org All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk