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[casi] Iraq - what next?

For a number of months we have had the view that some form of military action from the US in Iraq 
is inevitable.  The assumption which we made in September appears as this year draws to a close to 
be more and more accurate (although only hindsight has 20:20 vision).

In the last fortnight we have held meeting with various members of the varying Iraqi opposition 
groups, the UK Ministry of Defence and attended the opposition conference at the Edgware Metropole.

We are arguing the following case:

a)  It is important to minimise casualties and think of the Iraqi people rather than just the oil
b) It is a bad idea to have an invasion which results in Iraq ending up being controlled by the US 
government.  This would be bad both for Iraq and the rest of  the world (with the knock on effects).

It is, however, the case that unless there is a clear strategy that involves US support for an 
uprising by the Iraqi people that the US understand can work that they are likely to go for what 
they see as the easy option of invading.

We are, therefore, trying to put such a strategy together.

We will be having further meetings with various people (mainly Iraqis) over the Christmas holiday 

If anyone feels they can add to this process please email me as above.

We think we have successfully made the point that an invasion of Baghdad with the consequent street 
fighting in  a city that is the home to 20% (plus) of the Iraqis in Iraq would be something to be 

We are arguing the case with the Military in the UK that in the event of a decision for some action 
to be taken to remove Saddam Hussain from power the opposition should be given support for an 
uprising before any invasion decision.

Other issues are on the website at

We are looking at the issue of using UN resolution 949 to create safe havens in the South of the 
country particularly in the sacred cities.  One difficulty is how to resolve the issues around 
Kirkuk in the North.

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