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Re: [casi] STRATFOR: Iraq and the Broader War

There is another scenario not mentioned in this article: the attacks on
the US started primarily as Ba'ath resistance, and as the US knocks down
the Ba'ath and Saddam loyalists, the attacks from them will diminish:
*but*, as more innocent people are killed and violated, freedom
repressed, life disrupted, and other probems with the occupation remain
or increase, other Iraqis will lose patience -- some members of current
organizations, and some spontaneously gathering into resistance groups,
or acting alone -- and attacks will continue or escalate from these

Any analysis which does not take the full range of possible dynamic
conditions into account will likely miss the mark. Any action taken may
change those conditions, rendering those actions ineffective. Speaking of
quagmires -- quicksand -- it is important to realize that the deadliest
aspect is that when one shifts position trying to get out, the quicksand
moves to fill in the space vacated. While kiling the sons might possibly
have had a positive effect on some organization they energized, that very
killing and the treatment of them afterwards created anger among some
other Iraqis (as well as others in the world).

If more people are now willing to go to the US in betrayal of Saddam,
that will increase the ire of those who resent informers, leading to more
killings for betrayal or in tribal revenge -- and a lessening of unity
and control. If innocents are killed in attacks on Saddam, that will
creat more anger. If Saddam is killed instead of captured that will fuel
suspician that he was not taken alive because he would have given
information destructive to the US -- perhaps some of which had been
censored from the weapons declaration.

"Winning the hearts and minds" of some Iraqis will further polarize and
alienate those who are not won over. Even rebuilding infrastructure could
anger those who reject the prospect of American firms controlling the
process and profiting from it. As long as the US is there, acting in a
dictatorial manner, nothing it can do can escape making the problems
worse in some aspect, and with some portion of the population.

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