The following is an archived copy of a message sent to a Discussion List run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq.
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There is another scenario not mentioned in this article: the attacks on the US started primarily as Ba'ath resistance, and as the US knocks down the Ba'ath and Saddam loyalists, the attacks from them will diminish: *but*, as more innocent people are killed and violated, freedom repressed, life disrupted, and other probems with the occupation remain or increase, other Iraqis will lose patience -- some members of current organizations, and some spontaneously gathering into resistance groups, or acting alone -- and attacks will continue or escalate from these others. Any analysis which does not take the full range of possible dynamic conditions into account will likely miss the mark. Any action taken may change those conditions, rendering those actions ineffective. Speaking of quagmires -- quicksand -- it is important to realize that the deadliest aspect is that when one shifts position trying to get out, the quicksand moves to fill in the space vacated. While kiling the sons might possibly have had a positive effect on some organization they energized, that very killing and the treatment of them afterwards created anger among some other Iraqis (as well as others in the world). If more people are now willing to go to the US in betrayal of Saddam, that will increase the ire of those who resent informers, leading to more killings for betrayal or in tribal revenge -- and a lessening of unity and control. If innocents are killed in attacks on Saddam, that will creat more anger. If Saddam is killed instead of captured that will fuel suspician that he was not taken alive because he would have given information destructive to the US -- perhaps some of which had been censored from the weapons declaration. "Winning the hearts and minds" of some Iraqis will further polarize and alienate those who are not won over. Even rebuilding infrastructure could anger those who reject the prospect of American firms controlling the process and profiting from it. As long as the US is there, acting in a dictatorial manner, nothing it can do can escape making the problems worse in some aspect, and with some portion of the population. ________________________________________________________________ The best thing to hit the internet in years - Juno SpeedBand! Surf the web up to FIVE TIMES FASTER! Only $14.95/ month - visit www.juno.com to sign up today! _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss To contact the list manager, email casi-discuss-admin@lists.casi.org.uk All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk