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Thanks for the very good article by Milan Rai. List members may have seen corroborative evidence in the article in last Sunday's Observer (UK) by Faisal Islam and Nick Paton Walsh titled "US buys up Iraqi oil to stave off crisis -- Seizing reserves will be an allied priority if forces go in"; sample paragraphs -- > But the prospect of British and US commandos claiming key oil > installations around Basra by force has pushed global oil diplomacy > into overdrive. International oil companies have been jockeying > position to secure concessions before 'regime change' ... > The US economy will announce zero growth this week, prolonging three > years of sluggish performance. Cheap oil would boost an economy > importing half of its daily consumption of 20m barrels. > But a cheaper oil price could have been reached more easily by lifting > sanctions and giving the US oil majors access to Iraq's untapped > reserves. > Instead, war stands to give control over the oil price to 'new Iraq' > and its sponsors, with Saudi Arabia losing its capacity to control > prices by altering productive capacity. As Milan pointed out, ultra-cheap Middle East oil is not necessarily a good thing for the US, and certainly not for domestic oil-production; but "control over the oil price" through the 'new' Iraq would be very welcome to the Rulers of the Universe. It may just be worth adding that, if Milan's analysis is correct, it is no surprise that oil-company executives are unenthusiastic about the war. As someone said on the list recently, they prefer stability to upheaval. They want to concentrate on their short-term goals and can't afford to entertain long-term adventures aimed at securing future benefits (any capitalist enterprise that neglected securing today's profits because it was manoeuvring for profits a decade hence would soon be out of business). However large sectors of the economy which on the face of it have little to do with oil production also have a big interest in MidEast oil -- eg the financial sectors who will be recycling the petrodollars. So even though the Bush administration is richly peopled with oil-industry nominees, they will probably see it as their job to make decisions that will (in their view) benefit the system as a whole long term, -- even if those decisions conflict with the short-term interest of oil corporations. (Of course, now that a war may be imminent, the short-term interests of US oil corporations also include getting to the head of the queue when the Iraq oil concessions are re-organized after the conflict.) But these are just my guesses. Someone who knows more about the economics and diplomacy of oil could confirm or refute it for us. Andrew Goreing _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss To contact the list manager, email casi-discuss-admin@lists.casi.org.uk All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk