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Dear Felicity, Beautiful words. The situation doesn't look too good for our Iraqi friends. But there is a lot of solidarity with the Iraqi people, and actions against the war. That should give us a little hopein these difficult times. Can I add a letter from Joe Quandt (Voices in the Wilderness) who is in Baghdad now. Yours in solidarity and struggle for peace. Dirk Adriaensens www.irak.be You can see Joe Quandt live on this link: http://www.msnbc.com/local/wnyt/M231364.asp WE ARE HERE TODAY: OCTOBER 26, 2002 FROM BAGHDAD by Joe Quandt We are in Washington today to protest the foreign and domestic policies of our government. We are in Baghdad today to protest the foreign and domestic policies of our government. We are in Albany today to protest the foreign and domestic policies of our government. Let us have no illusions. In Baghdad, people ask me point blank, "Joe, the war.....when is it coming?" At 1st, I thought the question fatalistic. But the 8-year war with Iran in which 200,000 died, the Gulf War, which took possibly another 300,000, besides wrecking the entire infrastructure, the U.N. sanctions, which in 12 years have cost them an additional million and a half lives-22 years of sustained economic and military conflict have made Iraqis immune to illusions, in the matter of war. Let us, like the Iraqis, have no illusions. I was in the states a month ago when the House of Representatives sold the birthright of 1776. I was in Baghdad when the Senate followed suit. They have begun the process of making George II king in all but name. Every day we watch the extraordinarily creative posturing of the French and Russian governments, who in the end will cut a handsome deal with our government, and then think they've done very well for themselves. Political activist Ghazwan Al-Muhkti says that U.S. coercion and deal making is rendering the U.N. irrelevant. Former U.N. head of Iraqi relief programs Dennis Halliday was even more blunt: "The U.N. is dying." Have no illusions; the U.N. is not going to come to the rescue. You are here today perhaps because you understand how deeply your civil rights are being slashed at, and recreated in the image of the New World Order. Or you grasp all too well that U.S. arms sales around the world make inevitable the endless cycle of big and little wars to come, for the next hundred years. You realize that all future treaties are things of convenience, to be abrogated when their purpose has been served. That the International Criminal Court, the Kyoto Accords, bans on nuclear and conventional weapon testing, research into alternative energy sources, all of these are only impediments to the agendas of this administration. That the War on Terrorism is simply a convenient place to focus American fears now that Communism is dead, and that this war on terrorism, the war on Afghanistan, the war for the oil of Iraq, are only the opening gambits in the U.S. bid to secure the fossil fuel reserves of the entire planet in order that they may dictate terms to the rest of the industrialized world. Ask the shoeshine boys, the art dealers, the cafe operators, the hotel staff, ask anyone in Iraq why the United States is coming here. They have no illusions. How many countries have been attacked by Iraq in the last 12 years?...................... How many countries have been attacked by the United States in the last 12 years? In the case of Iraq, it has been on a weekly basis. Lives mean nothing to this administration, yours or the Iraqis'. Have no illusions. So why are we here today? We are here because we must be. We are here because, in the words of Scott Ritter, "There's a drunk at the wheel, and we've got to get the keys away from him." We are here because the right of assembly has not been taken away from us....yet. We are here because our government is ruining the good name of the American people. We are here because we have children.....and parents.....and loved ones.....and cherished ideals, and everywhere our government drops a bomb, an Osama bin Laden seed is sown. We are here because the answer to war is only more war. We are here because we have problems in our schools, in Corporate America, in our inner cities, problems of violence, ignorance, and greed, and 100 billion dollars spent on brutalizing our brothers and sisters in another country would be better spent on our own problems than in legitimizing the theft of that nation's natural resources, to fill the pockets of the vultures who are running this country. As I wrote this last evening, I watched the sun setting over the Tigris River. Here, in the Cradle of Civilization, one is, perhaps, more keenly aware of the historical imprudence of our government's actions. We are here today because we must be. Because our hearts tell us that the clock is ticking, not quite as loudly as it's ticking for the Iraqis, but time is running out on the American Dream. Have no illusions: An attack against Iraq will be one of the cataclysmic events in American history, on a par with The Civil War and the Great Depression, because it will signal to the world that democratic principals and republican humanism have no more meaning in the American ethos than they did in Nazi Germany. And to send that message is to invite a return to barbarism, but on a scale we must shudder to contemplate. We are here today because we believe that the Battle Of Iraq will not signal the end of civilization as we have dreamt it, but rather, that it will be but the opening skirmish, for us here today, in the long overdo American War On Greed. Thank You ----- Original Message ----- From: "farbuthnot" <firstname.lastname@example.org> To: "Colin Rowat" <email@example.com>; "discussion list Discussion CASI" <firstname.lastname@example.org> Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2002 5:16 PM Subject: Re: [casi] RE: Iraq - Potential Consequences of War > > Hi - I know I am terminally bolshy, but nevertheless I find suggestions of > 'rationally' being forced to overthrow a legitimate regime - however woeful > - appalling. I'd like to overthrow George Bush, could care less what > happens to him, the man's also a terrifying nightmare in my personal opinion > and may plunge the world into nuclear war, but it does not make my wishes > legal. As for 'relatively few deaths' 56,000 military and 3,500 civilians. > Well the latter is why possibly the dimmest US President ever elected has > gone on his never to end, illegal 'war on terrorism' - about exactly the > number who died in the WTC - but these were only Iraqi innocents, so don't > count.56,000 is just over eleven times the entire town of Dunblane. But they > are only youthful Iraqi conscripts, so who cares? > Every life has a name, each is some mother's son or daughter, not a > statistic. > I left the UK for Iraq last month with even taxi drivers saying to me: 'what > has Iraq done this time?' I arrived in Iraq to people saying" 'what have we > done this time?' We know. What they have done is to be unfortunate enough to > be born in a country 'floating on a sea of oil'. Less statistics and more > humanity, for the sake of all our humanity, are needed, I feel. best, f. > > > > >> A contact recommended the following briefing paper:... > >> Paul Rogers, "Iraq: Consequences of War", Oxford Research Group, October > >> 2002, http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/Iraqbriefing.pdf > > > > Thank you Nathaniel. > > > >> War with Iraq: > >> * is likely to result in the deaths of many thousands of innocent Iraqi > >> civilians ... > >> * the regime will aim to draw the US forces into urban warfare in Baghdad. > >> A civilian death toll of at least 10,000 is likely, three times as many as > >> died in the 11 September attacks; this is a low estimate, the experience > >> of urban warfare in Beirut and elsewhere suggests even higher casualties; > > > > I think that it has been recognised on the list that members of the Iraqi > > regime may act 'rationally' if faced with a certain US attack, and depose > > the existing leadership. If this occurs - and I have no idea what > > likelihood to assign to this (but guess that vague US signals as to what it > > regards as acceptable in Iraq decrease it) - then the Rogers scenarios are > > avoided. > > > > If, on the other hand, it does come to war, then Rogers' report may > > underestimate the human consequences by focussing on the direct consequences > > of military action. One of the consistent lessons to arise from the 1991 > > war was that the majority of civilian casualties were indirect. Beth > > Osborne Daponte's study (http://www.ippnw.org/MGS/PSRQV3N2Daponte.html), the > > best that I know of, found that: > > > > <begins> > > According to the methods described in this paper, the number of Iraqis who > > died in 1991 from effects of the Gulf war or postwar turmoil approximates > > 205,500. There were relatively few deaths (approximately 56,000 to military > > personnel and 3,500 to civilians) from direct war effects. Postwar violence > > accounted for approximately 35,000 deaths. The largest component of deaths > > in this reconstruction derives from the 111,000 attributable to postwar > > adverse health effects. Of the total excess deaths in the Iraqi population, > > approximately 109,000 were to men, 23,000 to women, 74,000 to children (6). > > <ends> > > > > Note that even the direct military consequences exceed US deaths in Vietnam, > > which took place over more than a decade rather than few months and to a > > country ten times Iraq's population. > > > > The "postwar adverse health effects" reflect the damage done to Iraq's > > infrastructure, in which its electrical grid played a central role. It is > > hard to imagine it not again being one of the first targets in a new > > campaign. Further, Iraq's infrastructure is generally less robust now than > > it was in 1991: spit and baling wire hold much of it together. On top of > > this, the Iraqi civilian population may also have fewer coping mechanisms > > for dealing with the loss of services: private savings may have recovered > > for some in Baghdad in recent years, but I think that the vast majority of > > Iraqis have experienced a decade of deep poverty. > > > > In 1991 it was recognised that targeting infrastructure put civilians at > > risk, but the US expectation seemed to be that Saddam would fall and a new > > government would allow a negotiated solution. The infrastructural damage > > would give the US leverage over it. Gordon and Trainor quote Lt. Col. David > > Deptula, one of the air war planners, as saying, "Hey, your lights will come > > back on as soon as you get rid of Saddam". (Brig. Gen. Buster Glosson's > > explanation for targeting the infrastructure was that he wanted "to put > > every household in an autonomous mode and make them feel they were isolated. > > ... I wanted to play with their psyche." For perhaps 111,000 Iraqis, his > > playing was fatal.) > > > > Iraqi Kurdistan has certain advantages, but will face at least two > > disadvantages. First, the military situation there will likely be more > > chaotic, with the possibility of clashes between Turkish and Kurdish forces. > > Second, the UN staff currently responsible for distributing the 'oil for > > food' rations will leave very quickly; further, the warehouses are in > > South/Central Iraq. This harvest has been a good one, so there may be > > private savings. > > > > Best, > > > > Colin Rowat > > > > work | Room 406, Department of Economics | The University of Birmingham | > > Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK | web.bham.ac.uk/c.rowat | (+44/0) 121 414 3754 | > > (+44/0) 121 414 7377 (fax) | email@example.com > > > > personal | (+44/0) 7768 056 984 (mobile) | (+44/0) 7092 378 517 (fax) | > > (707) 221 3672 (US fax) | firstname.lastname@example.org > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. > > To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss > > To contact the list manager, email email@example.com > > All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk > > > > _______________________________________________ > Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. > To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss > To contact the list manager, email firstname.lastname@example.org > All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk > _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. 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