[casi] Fear of Financial Collapse Fuels Iraq War Drive

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http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2002/2928why_irq_war.html


This article appears in the July 26, 2002 issue of
Executive Intelligence Review.

Fear of Financial Collapse Fuels Iraq War Drive

by Muriel Mirak Weissbach

When on July 15, with stock markets diving, President George W. Bush
proclaimed that "our economy is fundamentally strong," the international
press was quick to point out that Bush was repeating almost verbatim the
dictum of Herbert Hoover on Oct. 25, 1929, "The fundamental business of the
country, that is production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound
and prosperous basis." Bush's tragicomic statement was amplified next day
by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's blather about the permanent
boom of American consumer spending fuelled by credit from skyrocketting
real-estate prices. But stock values plunged further after the President's
speech, and survived the Ides of July thanks only to a massive intervention
by the Washington-New York "Plunge Protection Team." More of the same
followed Greenspan's Senate testimony.
As markets around the world fell, the dollar, also, was traded at parity
with the euro for the first time since late 1999, and then fell below that.
The benchmark world currency has been sliding vis-à-vis the Swiss franc,
the Japanese yen, and the British pound-sterling. Bank of Japan Governor
Masaru Hayami told the press on July 17 that "the possibility of a
worldwide move to dump the greenback is fairly high," as we detail in our
Economics section.

That dollar crisis which Lyndon LaRouche has been forecasting, as a marker
of the global breakdown of the world financial, monetary, and economic
structures, is now upon the central bankers and national governments. The
way out being sought by a panic-stricken financial oligarchy, is war. Their
profoundly mistaken assumption is, that once a military attack against Iraq
is unleashed, institutional investors will rush to buy the dollar as a safe
haven in the ensuing crisis. They make the fatal error of assuming that
through military means, they can consolidate that "empire" whose financial
foundations are crumbling.

Most straightforward was leading neo-conservative John Podhoretz, in a New
York Post article entitled "October Surprise, Please!" Podhoretz, a
spokesman for the Christian Zionist war-mongers and the "Likud lobby," put
it bluntly: "You're in some domestic political trouble, Mr. President. You
need to change the subject. You have the biggest subject-changer of at all
at your disposal. Use it.... There's a luscious double trap in starting the
war as soon as possible, Mr. President. Your enemies are delirious with
excitement about the corporate greed scandals.... If you get your troops on
the ground quickly, they will go berserk." Two weeks earlier, fascist
"economist" Lawrence Kudlow had told Bush that only a war on Iraq would
save the U.S. markets and economy, boosting the stock exchange by 2,000
points.


Calling Up the Troops

Whereas public discussion of the coming war against Iraq has set a
timetable for "early next year," it is evident, that with the onrushing
dollar and market crash, contingencies are being readied for a nearer-term
move. The military scenarios for an Iraq war, have been leaked in the U.S.
and British press in July with increasing frequency and detail. For
example, the New York Times on July 5, leaked news of a "military planning
document [which] calls for air, land, and sea-based forces to attack Iraq
from three directions—the north, south, and west—in a campaign to topple
President Saddam Hussein, according to a person familiar with the
document."

The plans foresee "tens of thousands of Marines and soldiers probably
invading from Kuwait," as well as "hundreds of warplanes based in as many
as eight countries, possibly including Turkey and Qatar," which "would
unleash a huge air assault against thousands of targets.... Special
operations forces or covert CIA operatives would strike at depots or
laboratories storing or manufacturing Iraq's suspected weapons of mass
destruction and the missiles to launch them."

Though putting all this merely in the preliminary planning stage, the paper
added: "Nonetheless, there are several signs that the military is preparing
for a major air campaign and land invasion," among them, the following:
"Thousands of Marines from the First Marine Expeditionary Force at Camp
Pendleton, California, the Marine unit designated for the Gulf, have
stepped up their mock assault drills, a Pentagon adviser said. The military
is building up bases in several Persian Gulf states, including a major
airfield in Qatar called Al Udeid. Thousands of American troops are already
stationed in the region." Furthermore, "the Pentagon has said it has
stepped up production of critical munitions. The Air Force is stockpiling
weapons, ammunition, and spare parts, like airplane engines, at depots in
the United States and in the Middle East." Other press accounts, though
presenting variations, agree that the operation is on. The July 16 Wall
Street Journal, for example, picked up an earlier wire story regarding a
new "mid-size" war plan, which would deploy only 50-75,000 troops and
massive air power. This version, would require only two weeks to assemble
forces in Kuwait.

The reports of actual troop mobilizations have been independently confirmed
by regional sources. Among the deployments cited are the build-up of troops
into Turkey's Incerlik Air Base, and the introduction of limited numbers of
special forces into Jordan, where bases were to be made available for U.S.
forces. Although the Jordanian government immediately denied the story,
speculation was fuelled by the appearance of former Crown Prince Hassan at
a well-publicized meeting of former Iraqi military officers in London, over
the July 13-14 weekend.

The group of 60-90 former officers discussed how to implement "regime
change" in Baghdad. Led by Brig. Gen. Najib al-Salihi, they debated what
kind of government a post-Saddam Iraq should have, and could not agree.
Najib al-Salihi predicted that once the United States were to attack, the
Iraqi army would collapse; Saddam Hussein would be isolated and attempt to
flee; and with U.S. air cover, rebel ground troops could take Baghdad. He
urged the United States to make clear that it was targetting Saddam Hussein
only, to avoid "two armies facing each other." A committee of 15 officers,
representing all ethnic and religious groups, was set up to plan the grand
operation.


A Meeting for Show

According to well-informed regional experts, the crew that gathered in
London no more represents a viable military alternative, than does the
Ahmed Chalabi-led Iraqi National Congress represent a political
alternative. Any comparison to the military capabilities and experience of
the Afghan United Front (itself not in such good shape), should be treated
with ridicule. The significance of the London meeting was not military, but
political and psychological: It merely made very public—thanks to the mass
presence of British media—that an operation to remove Saddam Hussein is
under way.

The presence there of the former Crown Prince and uncle to Jordanian King
Abdullah II, raised enormous concern throughout the Arab world. As Brian
Whitaker, in the London Guardian, reported, Prince Hassan strode to the
front of the hall, to take a seat next to Sharif Ali bin al-Hussein, cousin
to the last king of Iraq. Prince Hassan told reporters he was there as an
"observer," adding that he supported the "Iraqis' right to live in
democracy, security, and peace."

The following day, the Jordanian Minister of Information, Mohammad Advan,
denied that the government knew about the appearance, "which does not
conform to the principled Jordanian stand on brotherly Iraq." King Abdullah
II also intervened, to counter the impact of Hassan's appearance,
reiterating emphatically in an NBC News interview, that no understanding
existed between Jordan and the United States for a strike against Iraq. The
King also warned that any military action would aggravate Arab
frustrations, isolate the United States
internationally, and spark violence throughout Iraq.

The facts behind Prince Hassan's actions are not known. It may be, that
under massive American pressure exerted on Jordan, using the stick of
military might and the carrot of financial aid, some forces in the Kingdom
are flirting with the option of covertly accepting the U.S. move. It is
reported that other Arab nations, have been briefed by the United States
that "this time" the operation will work surgically, quickly, effectively;
and that anyone who does not go along will find himself in hot water
afterward. Those who choose to comply, could reap the benefits of a redrawn
map of the entire region.

The scenarios circulated include options for an Israeli move to expel the
Palestinians into Jordan, once the attack on Iraq has begun, according to
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's strategy that "Jordan is Palestine."
In this event, the Hashemite dynasty would be relocated to a carved up Iraq
or an equally carved up Saudi Arabia, and assigned new powers. A gameplan
that Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz reportedly discussed with
regional governments, including Turkey, foresees partitioning Iraq, with a
Shiite South, a Sunni Baghdad (with Hashemite presence), a "Turkic" North
around Mosul and Kirkuk, and a Kurdish mountain region.


The Stuff That Nightmares Are Made Of

None of the American and British scenarios and war strategies will work as
planned, as EIR has shown in detail ("It Will Not Be Desert Storm II," EIR,
March 29). As American military professionals have testified, any serious
attempt to overthrow the Iraqi government, would require an invasion force
of 250,000, which is not readily available. It is a chimera that Kurdish
forces in the North and Shi'ite groups in the South could unite to wage
effective war, rallying massive popular support. The Kurds' leaders have
repeatedly insisted, that they are not eager to be U.S. pawns in a game
that could destroy the relative economic and political autonomy they enjoy.
Any aggression by Shi'ite groups would open another can of worms, as some
are backed by Iran, a major power in the Persian Gulf which no one in
Washington wants to enhance.

Lyndon LaRouche stressed in a July 8 interview with Iranian national radio,
that such a war against Iraq cannot be won, because as soon as the United
States attacks, Israel's Sharon will move to his "final solution" to expel
the Palestinians, and most probably attack Iran. Iran, in this case, would
not remain idle. Iraq's response is not known, but it would resist. Turkey
will be thrown into convulsions. Deputy Defense Secretary Wolfowitz tried
to reassure Turkish officials that the United States would not tolerate a
Kurdish entity arising from the conflict; but any break-up of Iraq would
trigger civil war, whose effects would be felt in Turkey.

That the war would ignite protest and conflict throughout the Arab and
Islamic world is, not incidentally, one of the aims of the entire
operation. Chaos of precisely this type, threatening governments across
North Africa, the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and Central Asia, is
conducive to military imposition of a new imperial control.
But this would-be empire is in collapse; such havoc intends
(unsuccessfully) to save the stock market shards of a failed financial
system.


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