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Professor Richard Garfield, an epidemiologist and leading authority on health effects of sanctions, recently updated his estimate  of excess deaths due to sanctions in Iraq. The revised figure is cited in Welch's article . Professor Garfield's latest estimate is 350,000 excess deaths among children under 5 over the period roughly since sanctions began to this year . Note that no claim is made as to the cause of these excess deaths. Also note this is an approximation only, as Professor Garfield is planning to revisit all of these data soon to check and further update estimates. Garfield intends his estimate to be a CONSERVATIVE LOWER BOUND. In using this figure, it's correct to say: "we are confident that AT LEAST 350,000 excess deaths occurred among Iraqi children under five over the period roughly since sanctions began to this year." Garfield's research changed when UNICEF's 1999 survey data became available: - 1) Pre-UNICEF/99 estimates attempted to statistically adjust and project for a paucity of data, while working around prior studies known to be flawed. - 2) Post-UNICEF estimates were based upon UNICEF's representative sample survey for indirect mortality estimation, with excess death estimates calculated using more conservative fertitlity and population estimates than used by UNICEF. Thanks to Professor Garfield for his ongoing work in this area. Regards, Drew Hamre Golden Valley, MN USA (new email: info@uncoverIraq.com) ===  See the citations and links for Garfield at <http://www.cam.ac.uk/societies/casi/info/themes.html#hum>, chiefly <http://www.odihpn.org/pdfbin/networkpaper031.pdf> and <http://www.cam.ac.uk/societies/casi/info/garfield/dr-garfield.html>.  http://reason.com/0203/fe.mw.the.shtml  Welch gives the range as between "August 1991 and last year" though he may have intended '1990'. -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email firstname.lastname@example.org CASI's website - www.casi.org.uk - includes an archive of all postings.