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Important 1991 NYT Article on Iraq's Future (3 June 1991)

As far as the New York Times goes, this is THE early article on:
* Gulf-War infrastructural damage (including CIA repair estimates)
* War-time disease increases
* Looming health crisis
* Inflation
* Long-term economic impact
* The sector-by-sector similarities between Under Secretary General Martti Ahtissari's report (the 
report where he described the damage done to Iraq as "near apocalyptic") and official U.S. 

The article incorrectly portrays Iraq's then- and future oil production capabilities, but overall 
it helps to rebutt claims that there were no early and clear indications that a post-War civilian 
Iraq was going to be devestated without sanctions and completely destroyed with them.

With regards,
  Nathaniel Hurd
  Boston, USA

Copyright 1991 The New York Times Company   
The New York Times 
June 3, 1991, Monday, Late Edition - Final 

SECTION: Section A; Page 1; Column 5; Foreign Desk 
LENGTH: 2186 words 
HEADLINE: U.S. Officials Believe Iraq Will Take Years to Rebuild 
BYLINE: By PATRICK E. TYLER,  Special to The New York Times 

   Three months after the Persian Gulf war devastated Iraq's military and many of its civilian 
industries, the country remains
seriously incapacitated, facing a potentially catastrophic health crisis this summer and many years 
of rebuilding its civilian
economy, Bush Administration analysts say. 

A comprehensive assessment of the damage from the intense 43-day allied bombardment remains 
classified within the Administration, which has been reluctant to divulge details. But an overview 
of the damage to key sectors of Iraq's economy emerged in recent days from a series of interviews 
with Administration analysts, who agreed to discuss it if they were not identified. 

The assessment indicates that Iraq's electrical power industry may have been damaged well beyond 
the intentions of allied war
planners, who developed a still-secret weapon that dropped thousands of metallic filaments onto the 
electrical network at key points to create huge short-circuits and blackouts on the night of 
January 17th, when the war began. This was followed by
precision strikes on power plants. 
Most Power Still Out 

Even now, 80 percent of the the nation's power grid is out of service, and electrical shortages are 
aggravating the crisis in health care. 

In addition, allied warplanes wrecked Iraq's civilian telecommunications system, described as a 
total loss by one estimate; and the bombing campaign seriously damaged the national network of 
roads and bridges, crippling commerce in a nation that
straddles two major river valleys, those of the Tigris and the Euphrates. Generally, the war damage 
seems less visible in
Baghdad than in many areas of the countryside. 

The critical sector of oil production, the dynamo that drives Iraq's economy, requires a major 
infusion of cash, about $1.5
billion, to get its export pipelines going at prewar levels; and Iraq may not be able to maintain 
its gasoline production without
Western technology, spare parts and expertise in the near term. Because of the international trade 
sanctions imposed after the
invasion of Kuwait, however, Iraq has been unable to import urgently needed equipment and has not 
sold a cargo of oil, its
principal source of income, since last August. 

One of the major mysteries remains how many Iraqi soldiers and civilians died. United States 
intelligence agencies assert that
they have not addressed this question and the Bush Administration has not indicated any official 

Intelligence officers connected with the United States Central Command conducted what they 
described as a purely mathematical exercise at the end of the war to estimate Iraqi war dead by 
subtracting prisoners of war and an assumed percentage of deserters and then assigning a mortality 
rate to those Iraqis who remained on the battlefield. 

By this method, the command derived an unofficial death toll of about 100,000 Iraqi soldiers, and 
Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf, the allied commander, was said to have provided this unofficial tally 
in private briefings to members of Congress. 

Some analysts have questioned this unofficial number, arguing that the United States estimate of 
540,000 Iraqi troops in the war zone overstated the size of Iraqi forces and that desertion rates 
were underestimated. They also argued that such a large
number of battle deaths would have been accompanied by at least as many wounded, and that no 
evidence of this has been detected by foreign relief agencies working with Iraq's medical system. 

The Iraqi Government has not come forward with any authoritative estimate of war dead. Other 
unofficial estimates of Iraqi war
dead have put the figure at 25,000 to 50,000. 
Civilian Death Toll 

Allied war planners sought to minimize civilian deaths in Iraq, though there were notable mistakes, 
including the attack on an air raid shelter in Baghdad that apparently killed more than 300 

A report issued this month by the environmental group Greenpeace estimated the number of Iraqi 
civilians killed during the war
at 5,000 to 15,000, based on a review of statements by allied officials and other unofficial 

Overall, the American analysts say, the Iraqis are struggling precariously under a patchwork of 
short-term fixes and remedies
that will probably deteriorate in the months ahead if the Bush Administration maintains trade 
sanctions in an effort to force
President Saddam Hussein from power. 
Similarity to U.N. Report 

The Bush Administration's internal findings parallel those reported by a special United Nations 
mission to Iraq in March, which concluded that because of the damage inflicted on it, "Iraq has, 
for some time to come, been relegated to a pre-industrial age, but with all the disabilities of 
post-industrial dependency on an intensive use of energy and technology." 

Some Administration officials had criticized the United Nations report, prepared under the 
supervision of Under Secretary
General Martti Ahtissari, for describing the damage to Iraq with terms like "near apocalyptic." But 
in their detailed review of
each sector of Iraq's economy, the United Nations and United States assessments are not 

The Central Intelligence Agency estimates a national repair bill in Iraq of up to $30 billion, 
about half of which would have to
come from hard currency earnings on resumed shipments of oil to world markets. Add to this the $8 
billion Iraq owes this year
on its $80 billion in national debt, none of which has been paid, and a yet-to-be-determined bill 
for war reparations to Kuwait,
and the outline of Iraq's post-war economic crisis takes an ominous shape, with or without Mr. 
Risks of U.S. Policy 

Some analysts within the Administration suggested that its policy of maintaining sanctions was a 
risky course, both because of
its impact on the Iraqi people and because it may backfire or fail. 

One senior analyst said that as the Bush Administration discovered last fall when sanctions did not 
dislodge Iraq from Kuwait, there is no direct linkage between economic pain and political change in 
a police state like Iraq. This makes a sanctions-based strategy "inherently unpredictable," he 

"To the extent Iraqis are convinced that life will be abnormal and harsh as long as Saddam is 
around, that is clearly an incentive for change," the senior analyst said. "But in a regime based 
on fear, the primordial interests of survival suggest that people would rather go hungry than take 
the risk of being dead." 

United States analysts say they do not know how much Mr. Hussein has in the way of hard currency to 
buy food and medicine
in the short term, which he has been permitted to do since the United Nations began allowing 
humanitarian shipments on March
22. While $4 billion of Iraqi cash is frozen in foreign banks, they say Iraq is close to exhausting 
its cash reserves. 

At the outset of the war, the Bush Administration said its objectives included the elimination of 
Iraq's offensive war making ability and weapons of mass destruction. But in carrying out a strategy 
to achieve these goals, the Pentagon appears to have miscalculated the multiplying effects on 
public health of its large-scale destruction of Iraq's electricial power system, which fed civilian 
as well as military industries. 

The system powered water purification and sewage treatment plants, the loss of which led to a sharp 
increase in disease during and after the war. 

A report issued by a Harvard University study team this month said that "the collapse of electrical 
generating capacity has been a crucial factor in this public health catastrophe." The team 
predicted tens of thousands of additional war-related deaths by the end of the year, a finding the 
Administration has not disputed. 

"Without electricity, hospitals cannot function, perishable medicines spoil, water cannot be 
purified and raw sewage cannot be processed," the study team's report said. 
Short-Circuiting Power System 

Many of Iraq's electrical power plants were struck on the first night of the allied air war. Iraqi 
engineers and technicians later told Western visitors that allied warplanes dropped thousands of 
metallic filaments onto electrical transformers and power lines, causing a spectacular 
short-circuiting process. 

"It was really metallic threads, like a person's hair, very fine," said Julia Devin, a member of 
the Harvard team that toured Iraq in late April and early May and who returned with samples of the 
filaments collected from Iraqi plant technicians. 

An Air Force official this week confirmed the description of the attack. 

Tomahawk cruise missiles and guided bombs dropped from warplanes thereafter destroyed individual 
generating units, and these repeated attacks knocked out half of the country's generating capacity 
and damaged a large part of the other half, according to one Administration analysis. 

An Iraqi official last week said engineers had restored 1,580 megawatts of generating capacity out 
of what Western officials
say was a prewar level of about 9,000 megawatts. 

The Iraqi Government announced this week that eight-hour daily blackouts will be a continuing 
feature even where electricity
has been restored in major cities. Many smaller towns and villages still are without electricity. 

The longer term prospects for repairing the system may deteriorate due to the country's lack of 
access to Western technology, spare parts and expertise. 
Communications Badly Hit 

Of equally high priority on the allied target list was Iraq's telecommunications sector. Bombers 
struck telephone exchanges,
microwave relay stations and cable networks, along with dedicated military links. 

The multibillion-dollar telecommunications system that Iraq had built with state-of-the-art Western 
technology is the most
severely damaged segment of Iraq's civilian economy, United States analysts say. 

"The Iraqis are going to have to completely rebuild the system and they cannot do it without 
foreign equipment and expertise,"
said one analyst. 

While some telephone and telex circuits to the outside world and among major Iraqi ministries and 
military complexes have
been restored, most Iraqis are likely to be without telephone service for the foreseeable future. 
Oil Production Resumed 

Iraq resumed oil production in April and, according to a Central Intelligence Agency estimate, 
could be exporting one million
barrels per day -- about a third of its prewar production level -- by summer's end if sanctions are 
lifted. With a $1.5 billion
investment in new pumps for its export pipelines through Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Iraq could be 
exporting 2.7 million barrels
per day by the end of 1992, according to the C.I.A. estimate. 

Refining oil for domestic gasoline consumption has been more problematical. Most major refineries 
suffered serious damage
and Iraqi engineers will need foreign assistance and parts to repair them. 

Repairs at two large refineries enabled Iraq to lift gasoline rationing this month, but United 
States analysts say they are not sure the country can maintain gasoline output without access to 
spare parts and chemical additives produced outside the country. 
Damage to Transportation 

Iraq's highway and rail system is pocked by bomb craters and downed bridges. About 40 major bridges 
across the Tigris and
Euphrates Rivers will have to be replaced, which can probably be done without foreign assistance, 
analysts say. Another 10
bridges are seriously damaged. 

Perhaps as important as this damage, Iraq's only tire factory, whose output served the whole 
country until it shutdown last fall, remains idled by lack of access to imported raw materials. 

Though Iraqi military engineers have worked around much of the damage with temporary bridges, 
transportation disruptions and bottlenecks, especially in southern Iraq around Basra, will have a 
significant impact on traffic and distribution for many
months if not years. 
Public Health Endangered 

The threat to public health in Iraq is of great concern to international relief agencies and health 
experts. Daily power blackouts are causing re-contamination of some drinking water supplies and 
threaten the country's ability to operate sanitary hospital wards and operating rooms, where 
refrigeration of drugs, vaccines and blood is of critical importance. 

Some back-up generators have failed for lack of fuel and parts. 

United States analysts said the compounding effect of continued poor sanitation in many parts of 
the country, the onset of
summer heat and shortages of doctors and nurses could speed the growth of cholera, typhoid and 
gastroenteritis that may
already have claimed tens of thousands of lives. Many foreign health workers left Iraq before and 
during the war and have not

Inflation has priced baby formula above the income level of many poor families, and transportation 
problems along with the
closing of many regional health clinics have seriously retarded the level of health care 
services.Increasing child mortality is the most serious concern, public health experts and relief 
officials say. 

GRAPHIC: Photo: The classified assessment of damage to the Iraqi economy from the intense 43-day 
allied bombardment has indicated that most of the country's power industry and telecommunications 
system were heavily damaged if not totally destroyed. The ruins of a telecommunications building in 
Baghdad after allied bombing attacks. (Rick Reinhard/Impact Visuals)
(pg. A8) 
Map of Iraq highlighting Baghdad (pg. A8) 
LOAD-DATE: June 3, 1991
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