Update 12 April
2003
READINGS ON ECONOMIC
ASPECTS OF THE WAR ON IRAQ
Continuing Iraqi resistance,
the humanitarian crisis, breakdown of law and order, the prospects of civil war
and growing anger in the Arab street (Gulf States particularly vulnerable)
suggest that the scenarios for a protracted and wider conflict and the economic
and political costs of a prolonged occupation must be examined seriously. Some
of these envisage rising oil prices and a global economic downturn -- see the
scenarios below, notably those constructed by senior Yale economist William
Nordhaus in October 2002.
The links below cover some of
the economic discussion. I have also included documents which may not contain
economic analysis, but have implications for mid- and long-term economic and
humanitarian developments. The division of the material into ?Motivations?,
?Consequences? etc. should not be taken too seriously, since many items fall
into several categories.
There is a serious gap in the
literature: I have seen no
projections of the global economic and humanitarian impact under the various
scenarios -- for example, what would happen to oil-importing Asian countries
such as China, India, Japan, Thailand, if oil went to $80 per barrel and stayed there for 2
years?
The documents are in reverse
chronological order within each section.
Please email
URLs or actual texts of any other relevant documents/updates to me at
darnott@iprolink.ch
David Arnott (for the International Peace
Bureau)
Contents
Websites (multiple documents)
Individual items
Economic
motivations
Economic consequences
Scenarios
Selected
articles and news items
WEBSITES
These contain multiple
documents, some of which may also be listed under ?Individual items?. Check them
from time to time for new items and updates.
Campaign Against Sanctions on
Iraq (CASI)
Assessments
of the likely humanitarian and economic consequences of war on
Iraq
http://www.casi.org.uk/info/consequences.html
Center for Strategic
and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA)
Various
analyses by Steven Kosiak
http://www.csbaonline.org/1Latest_from_CSBA/Latest_from_CSBA.htm
CNN
Money
A good place to check how the markets are
reacting to the war and the archives have some useful articles on the
economic aspects of the war.
http://money.cnn.com/
Council on Foreign
Relations, Iraq: Costs of War
http://www.cfr.org/reg_index.php?id=6|35||1#11
Economist
Intelligence Unit
One or two relevant articles accessible to the
unsubscribed
http://www.eiu.com/
Economists Allied for
Arms Reduction (ECAAR)
Half a dozen useful articles
http://www.ecaar.org/
Forbes: The Cost of
Conflict
Forbes.com staff
http://www.forbes.com/home/2003/03/13/cx_ml_0313conflictlander.html
http://www.forbes.com/
Oil in Iraq
Global
Policy Forum
The
most comprehensive set of articles I have seen on oil and Iraq, plus links to
OPEC, online industry journals and the US Energy Information Administration:
Iraq Oil Page (which in turn has a links page)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/irqindx.htm
Inter Press Service
Iraq and Iraq ?Embattled Economy? pages
http://www.ipsnews.net/iraq/index.asp
http://www.ipsnews.net/iraq/index_economy.shtml
National
Association for Business Economics (NABE)
Economic
Costs of the War
A dozen
or so links to serious analyses.
?There is considerable ongoing debate on
what the cost would be for the war and subsequent rebuilding of
Iraq. NABE
will use this page to post links to any estimates we find online. NABE does not
endorse or oppose any of these estimates, and will link to any that we find that
amount to more than just off-the-cuff opinions or posturings. If you know of any online estimates that we
haven't posted here, let the webmaster know??
http://www.nabe.com/publib/warcost.html
Norbert?s Bookmarks for a Better
World
Huge set of links, including a section on the financial costs of
the war
http://www.betterworldlinks.org/book60e.htm
RADSTATS (Radical Statistics list)
Search archives for
Iraq or browse
http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/radstats
Taxpayers for Common
Sense
?An independent watchdog for the taxpayers of today and tomorrow -
Taxpayers for Common Sense (TCS) is a non-partisan voice for American taxpayers.
TCS is dedicated to cutting wasteful spending and subsidies in order to achieve
a responsible and efficient government that lives within its means.
http://www.taxpayers.org/
INDIVIDUAL ITEMS
Economic motivations
Another war will
surely pull us out of recession!
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/images/bliraqrecession.htm
Global Policy Forum
The
most comprehensive set of articles I have seen on oil and Iraq, plus links to
OPEC, online industry journals and the US Energy Information Administration:
Iraq Oil Page (which in turn has a links page)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/irqindx.htm
Halliburton out of the
running
March 31, 2003
CNN Money
Dick Cheney's former employer
won't have lead role in reconstructing Iraq...NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Halliburton, the energy and construction company once run by Vice President Dick
Cheney, is no longer in the running for a $600 million contract to rebuild
post-war Iraq, according to the United States Agency for International
Development.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/28/news/companies/Halliburton/index.htm
The war on Iraq is the US and Europe going head to head
Geoffrey Heard
26 March
2003
http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0304&L=radstats&T=0&F=&S=&P=264
Halliburton gets
a head start
Mark
Gongloff,
CNN/Money
March 26,
2003
Help wanted: Firm once headed by Cheney was gearing up to
rebuild Iraq before war started
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/news/economy/halliburton_early/index.htm
Bush?s
deep reasons for war on Iraq: oil, petrodollars and the OPEC Euro
question
Peter Dale Scott
Updated 13 March 2003
"As the
United States made preparations for war with Iraq, White House Press Secretary
Ari Fleischer, on 2/6/03, again denied to US
journalists that the projected war had "anything to do with oil." <1> He
echoed Defense Minister Donald Rumsfeld, who on
11/14/02 told CBS News that
"It has nothing to do with oil, literally nothing to do with oil."?"
A wealth
of good links
http://ist-socrates.berkeley.edu/~pdscott/iraq.html
The
Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With
Iraq:
W. Clark
January 2003 (last
revised 6 March)
?A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth? Although
completely suppressed by the
U.S. media and
government, the answer to the
Iraq enigma is
simple yet shocking -- it is an oil currency war. The real reason for this
upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) momentum towards the euro as an oil
transaction currency standard??
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
Oil,
Currency and the War on
Iraq
Cóilín Nunan
Feasta
March 2003
The war against the euro (following
W. Clarks?s argument)
http://www.feasta.org/documents/papers/oil1.htm
The New Oil Order
Michael
Renner
Foreign Policy in Focus
February 14,
2003
Washington's War on
Iraq is the
Lynchpin to Controlling Persian Gulf Oil.
?Only in the most direct sense is the
Bush administrations
Iraq policy
directed against Saddam Hussein. In contrast to all the loud talk about
terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and human rights violations, very little
is being said about oil. The administration has been tight-lipped about its
plans for a post-Saddam
Iraq and has
repeatedly disavowed any interest in the countrys oil
resources. But press reports indicate that
U.S. officials
are considering a prolonged occupation of
Iraq after their
war to topple Saddam Hussein. It is likely that a U.S.-controlled
Iraq will be the
linchpin of a new order in the world oil industry. Indeed, a war against
Iraq may well
herald a major realignment of the Middle East power
balance...?
http://www.corpwatch.org/issues/PID.jsp?articleid=5529
Statement by Ralph Nader about Oil and the War Against Iraq
4 February
2003
? Despite well-known ties to Big Oil, Bush Administration officials have
managed to keep a straight face as they insist that the drive to war against
Iraq is motivated only by an effort to eliminate weapons of mass destruction and
establish democracy. Tomorrow we'll see what evidence Secretary of State Powell
presents to the United Nations. It is not credible that there would be such a
strong push for war if there were no oil in
Iraq. Oil is
power and this is in significant measure a struggle over that power??
http://www.citizenworks.org/admin/press/feb4-rn.php
The Coming War With Iraq: Deciphering the Bush Administration's
Motives
Michael T. Klare
Author of ?Resource Wars: the New Landscape of
Global Conflict?, Foreign Policy
In Focus Adviser and former IPS Fellow.
Foreign Policy In
Focus
January 16, 2003
.?In their public
pronouncements, President Bush and has associates have advanced three reasons
for going to war with Iraq and ousting Saddam Hussein: (1) to eliminate Saddam?s
WMD arsenals; (2) to diminish the threat of international terrorism; and (3) to
promote democracy in Iraq and the surrounding areas. These are, indeed, powerful
motives for going to war. But are they genuine?? Klare
examines these motives, finds them unsatisfactory?? So, if concern over WMD
proliferation, or the reduction of terrorism, or a love of democracy do not
explain the administration?s determination to oust Saddam Hussein, what does? I
believe that the answer is a combination of three factors, all related to the
pursuit of oil and the preservation of
America?s status
as the paramount world power??
PDF (72K)
http://www.fpif.org/pdf/gac/0301warreasons.pdf
Oil in
Iraq: the heart of the Crisis
James A.
Paul
Global
Policy Forum
December, 2002
?Oil is at the heart of the crisis
that leads towards a
US war against
Iraq. For more
than a hundred years, major powers have battled to control this enormous source
of wealth and strategic power. The major international oil companies,
headquartered in the United
States and the
United Kingdom,
are keen to regain control over
Iraq?s oil, lost
with the nationalization in 1972. Few outside the industry understand just how
high the stakes in Iraq really are and how much the history of the world oil
industry is a history of power, national rivalry and military force??
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2002/12heart.htm
Iraq: the Struggle for Oil
James A.
Paul
Executive Director, Global Policy Forum
August, 2002 (revised
December, 2002)
? Iraq possesses
the world?s second largest proven oil reserves, currently estimated at 112.5
billion barrels, about 11% of the world total and its gas fields are immense as
well. Many experts believe that
Iraq has
additional undiscovered oil reserves, which might raise the total well beyond
250 billion barrels when serious prospecting resumes, putting
Iraq closer to
Saudi Arabia and
far above all other oil producing countries.
Iraq?s oil is of
high quality and it is very inexpensive to produce, making it one of the world?s
most profitable oil sources. Oil companies hope to gain production rights over
these rich fields of Iraqi oil, worth hundreds of billions of dollars. In the
view of an industry source it is ?a boom waiting to happen.???
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2002/08jim.htm
Economic consequences
Scenarios
Most of these are studies which look at the economic
consequences that might emerge from various war scenarios, typically ?benign?,
?intermediate? and ?worst case?. Some restrict their scope to the
United
States
economy; others look largely at military costs, while others are restricted to
costs incurred in Iraq and the immediate region. Some are short articles,
while others are large, multiple documents. Multiple documents, some of which
have updates, are dated by the main document and are given upper case titles (to
group the documents, not to indicate superiority)
IMF: How Will the War in
Iraq Affect the Global
Economy?
Appendix
1.2 of "Economic Prospects and Policies" (5 pages in Chapter 1)
International
Monetary Fund
9 April 2003
"The
human and social consequences of the war in Iraq are obviously of paramount
importance, but the economic impact of the conflict could also be significant,
although given the current uncertainties-including about the duration and
intensity of the war-it is impossible to forecast the economic consequences with
any precision.This appendix discusses the key
transmission channels through which the war could affect economic activity,
assesses in qualitative terms the possible impact of the war on the global
economy and on the main regions of the world, and finally discusses possible
macroeconomic policy responses..."
pdf (500K)
Use
the Acrobat Find function to search for Appendix 1.2
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/chapter1.pdf
Analysis of the Administration's FY 2003
Supplemental Request for the War with Iraq
Steven
Kosiak
Center
for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA)
March 31, 2003
On March 25, 2003, the Bush
Administration submitted a $74.7 billion fiscal year (FY) 2003 supplemental
appropriations request to Congress?
http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/Archive/U.20030331.Analysis_of_FY03_Supplemental/U.20030331.Analysis_of_FY03_Supplemental.pdf
Global Financial Stability Report: Market
Developments and Issues (Chapter 3)
"The Risk of War and emerging Market
Vulnerabilities?
International Monetary Fund
26 March 2003
(Use the Acrobat Find function to
search for Box 3.1)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/GFSR/2003/01/pdf/chp3.pdf
Sharing the burden: More international
support needed to pay for war and post-Saddam Iraq
Keith
Ashdown
Taxpayers for Common Sense
March 24, 2003
html, pdf (252K) 27 pages
Detailed study drawing on several
sources (though, intriguingly, not the Nordhaus or
Hartung studies) which concludes that the war will
cost more than the US can afford. It therefore calls for international
burden-sharing. ?War has always been expensive and the war in
Iraq is no
different. The United
States has already spent $1 billion dollars on
cruise missiles, $380 million on chemical protective suits, $100 million for air combat sorties, $3 million per day for
food for the troops and about $2.9 million a day to operate each of the aircraft
carrier groups. As the War in
Iraq progresses,
there are growing questions about the total cost of ?liberating?
Iraq from Saddam
Hussein. Taxpayers for Common Sense (TCS) is concerned that our nation has
engaged in a fiscally costly game of diplomatic brinkmanship that will likely
increase the long-term American costs for building democracy in Iraq??
http://www.taxpayers.org/nationalsecurity/costofiraq/sharingtheburden.htm
http://www.taxpayers.org/nationalsecurity/costofiraq/sharingtheburden.pdf
War in
Iraq versus Containment: Weighing the
Costs
Steven J. Davis, Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel
20 March
2003
This paper argues that war on
Iraq would be
considerably cheaper than continued containment and of economic benefit for the
people of Iraq.
It works better with Internet Explorer than Netscape.
pdf (255K) 20 pages
http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/steven.davis/research/War%20in%20Iraq%20versus%20Containment,%20Weighing%20the%20Costs%20(March%202003).pdf
Iraq: The Day
After
Report of an Independent Task Force on Post-Conflict Iraq
Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations
(Uncorrected
proofs)
Thomas
R. Pickering and James R. Schlesinger, Co-Chairs
Eric
P. Schwartz, Project Director
March 2003
(?)
pdf
(296K)
Not so much scenario-building, but with important economic
implications.
http://www.cfr.org/pdf/Iraq_DayAfter_TF.pdf
Potential cost of a war with Iraq and its
post-war occupation
Steven M. Kosiak
Center
for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
25 February 2003
?This backgrounder provides a range of estimates related
to the direct military costs of a war with Iraq and the post-war occupation of
the country.?
http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/Archive/B.20030225.Potential_Costs_of/B.20030225.Potential_Costs_of.pdf
Saddam's other weapon of mass destruction:
the potential economic fallout from a war in
Iraq.
Vincent Cable MP
BASIC, ISIS
& Saferworld
January 30, 2003.
An article focussing mainly on the impact for oil producion and oil markets, by the Liberal Democrat spokesman
for for Trade and Industry.
http://www.basicint.org/iraqconflict/Pubs/Web%20Notes/WN310103-4.PDF
The future of oil in
Iraq: scenarios and implications
RIIA
briefing paper
Valerie Marcel
Royal Institute for International
Affairs
December 2002
http://www.riia.org/pdf/research/sdp/The%20Future%20of%20Oil%20In%20Iraq%20Marcel%20Dec%202002.pdf
The Economic Costs of a War in
Iraq: The Negative Scenario
By Dean
Baker and Mark Weisbrot
Center
for Economic and Policy Research
December 9, 2002
?This paper examines the potential economic costs of a
war with Iraq in
a scenario in which the war is not over quickly. It follows loosely from the
negative scenario developed in a recent study by William Nordhaus. The paper discusses several ways in which a war
can impose large economic costs, that have not been
seriously considered in policy debates to date??
http://www.cepr.net/Costs%20of%20war.htm
http://www.cepr.net/Costs%20of%20a%20War.pdf
Potential
Costs of a War Against Iraq
Celeste Johnson Ward.
Center
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
20 November
2002
Summarises several estimates
http://www.csis.org/features/iraq_costofwar.pdf
THE CSIS STUDY
A
conference held in Washington
DC in November 2002. The documents include
the conference transcript plus supporting briefings and updates.
After an Attack on
Iraq: The Economic Consequences - Review and
Update, March 2003
Laurence Meyer
Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS)
March 13, 2003
http://www.csis.org/features/attackoniraq_background_update.pdf
An Attack on
Iraq: The Military, Political, and Economic
Consequences Scenario Briefing ? Revised March 2003
Anthony
H. Cordesman
Center
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
March
2003
(See the full transcript and summary of the conference at 12 and
21 November 2002,
below)
http://www.csis.org/features/attackoniraq_backgroundcord.pdf
After an Attack on
Iraq: The Economic
Consequences
Conference
Summary
Center
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Laurence Meyer
November 21, 2002
http://www.csis.org/features/attackoniraq_summary.pdf
After an Attack on
Iraq: The Economic
Consequences
Full
transcript of
conference
Center
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
The
Workshop met in the CSIS Conference Room at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, 1800 K Street,
N.W., Washington,
D.C., at 9:00
a.m.,
John
Hamre, President and CEO, CSIS, presiding.
Present:
John Hamre, President and CEO, CSIS; Jon Alterman, CSIS; Anthony Cordesman,
CSIS, Arleigh Burke Chairholder; Robert Diclemente,
Salomon Smith Barney; Bill Dudley, Goldman Sachs & ; Co.; Bob Ebel, CSIS; Herman Franssen,
CSIS.
This
is the main document of the CSIS study and contains sections headed: Global
Ramifications; Panel on Oil Production;
U.S. and Global
Economic Results; Financial Panel. The sections typically have one or more
presentations followed by discussion.
Interesting for the attitudes and positions of
participants as well as for the substantive discussion.
12 November 2002
PDF
(957K) 216 pages
http://www.csis.org/features/attackoniraq_fulltranscript.pdf
THE NORDHAUS STUDY
This
study has the broadest span in terms of the kinds of economic impact it covers,
though these are limited largely to the economy of the
United
States.
Iraq: The Economic Consequences of
War
William D. Nordhaus,
New York Review of
Books,
5 December 2002
Shorter html version without tables, but
with an expanded bibliography
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/15850
Summary of costs from the Nordhaus paper
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/Table7.htm
The Economic Consequences of a War with
Iraq
William
Nordhaus,
29 October 2002, revised
Full
pdf version (326K)
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/iraq.pdf
CBO
STUDY
Updated CBO Estimate of costs of conflict
in Iraq ? March 2003
Congressional Budget Office
March 2003
Included in An Analysis
of the President's Budgetary Proposals for 2004
(See earlier CBO estimate,
September 2002, below)
PDF
(1.2MB)
ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/41xx/doc4129/03-25-AnalysisPresidentBudget-Final.pdf
Estimated
Costs of a Potential Conflict with
Iraq
Congressional Budget
Office
September 2002
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3822&sequence=0 (html)
ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/38xx/doc3822/09-30-Iraq.pdf
(pdf)
ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/38xx/doc3822/09-30-Iraq.wpd
(Wordperfect)
Bulleted summary version of the CBO
report
U.S. Gov
Info/Resources
http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aairaqwarcost.htm
********************
Assessing the Cost of Military Action Against Iraq:
Using Desert Shield/Desert Storm as a Basis for Estimates
An
Analysis by the House Budget Committee Democratic Staff
House Budget
Committee, Democratic Caucus
(includes an
introductory letter? Lindsey is in the Ball Park: A War on Iraq Could Cost $100
Billion to $200 Billion? from Ranking Democratic Member John M. Spratt
Jr.)
September
23, 2002
http://www.house.gov/budget_democrats/analyses/spending/iraqi_cost_report.pdf
The Economic Costs of Going to War with
Iraq
Miriam
Pemberton
Foreign Policy in Focus
delivered September
13, 2002
Congressional
Briefing
http://www.fpif.org/iraq/0209warimpact.html
The War on Terrorism, the World Oil Market
and the U.S. Economy
Analysis Paper #7,
October 24, 2001
George L.
Perry, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Brookings
Institution
Referred to by Nordhaus
http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/views/papers/perry/20011024.pdf (full version, with charts and
tables - pdf)
http://www.brook.edu/views/papers/perry/20011024.htm (without charts or tables -
html)
Selected
articles and news items
Some of
which may also deal with various scenarios. This is a selection made at the end
of March-early April 2003. For fresh news items, go to the home websites of the
following links or those listed above under ?Websites?. Stock markets and the
IMF appear to jump up and down according to the latest media reports from
Iraq.
Wall Street euphoria proves
short-lived
BBC
News
7 April, 2003
US
shares have ended the day barely higher, after having surged wildly during the
first few hours of trading.
Overnight
successes produced excitement on Wall Street and beyond, and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average was up as much as 243 points early in the day. But it closed
just 23 points, or 0.3%, higher, at 8,300, as investors paused to consider the
lack of fundamental improvement in the economic outlook. "It's war related, but volume is somewhat muted," said Bob
Basel of Salomon Smith Barney.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2923457.stm
Markets surge after military
advance
BBC
News
2 April 2003
Markets
are still driven by war news. Stock markets in the
US and
Europe have risen sharply after coalition troop advances
towards Baghdad raised hopes of a
swift end to the conflict. In New
York, the Dow Jones index rose sharply as soon as the
Wall Street markets opened and ended the day 215 points - or 2.7% - higher at
8,285. .."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2908635.stm
Stock market a prisoner of war: advance
stalls, awaiting good news from Iraq
Malcolm
Morrison
Canadian
Press
31 March 2003
http://www.canada.com/national/story.asp?id=%7bA5E91E03-87BB-450E-8E7F-8FF47697268D}
Economy said unprepared for long war
against Iraq
Peter Morton
Financial Post
March 28,
2003
Markets seek swift end: Airlines woes most visible effect;
oil prices rising
again.
WASHINGTON ? ?The
increasing prospect of a long war in
Iraq could
undermine frail investor confidence and threaten a global economic recovery, the
International Monetary Fund said yesterday??
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id=%7B4EC0ED2A-406D-4EF6-8C36-456A24B24CCD%7D
Duration of
Iraq war sends stock markets lower, crude oil
higher
Malcolm
Morrison
Canadian
Press
Friday, March 28, 2003
http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=%7B840AB105-C623-4600-8434-5F0D970EB4FF%7D
War Threatens Economic Recovery, I.M.F.
Says
Timothy L. O?Brien
New York Times
March 27, 2003
"Financial
uncertainties related to the Iraqi war threaten to stymie a nascent global
economic recovery, the International Monetary Fund said in a semiannual report
released today. Horst Koehler, the I.M.F.'s managing
director, also told the German magazine WirtschaftsWoche in an interview published today that "a
global economic recession cannot be ruled out" if the Iraqi war proves to be a
prolonged engagement..."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/27/business/27CND-IMF.html?ei=5062&en=58f72d6833f55a38&ex=1049432400&partner=GOOGLE&pagewanted=print&position=top
War dents business travel
Chris
Isidore,
CNN/Money
March 27, 2003:
NEW
YORK (CNN/Money) - Businesses are cutting back on travel
in response to the war in
Iraq, and
they're giving employees more freedom to just refuse to travel altogether.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/27/pf/saving/travel/war_travel/index.htm
Slogging toward
recession?
By
Justin Lahart,
CNN/Money
March 27, 2003
Worries
that the war could last months, not weeks, lead to double-dip fears...
NEW
YORK (CNN/Money) - By most accounts the
U.S. coalition's
war against Iraq
is going well. Troops have advanced quickly, casualties have been low and the
threat to the country's oil fields has been pretty much removed.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/markets/wareconomy/index.htm
Koehler sees war-linked
recession
CNN Money
March 26, 2003
IMF director says
global recession possible if war pushes up oil prices, hits consumer
sentiment
BERLIN
(Reuters) ? ?The International Monetary Fund has become more downbeat about
global economic prospects because of the war in Iraq, according to an interview
with its managing director, Horst Koehler, published Wednesday??
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/news/international/imf_recession.reut/
IMF warning adds to recession fears over
Iraq
Alister Bull
Reuters
26 March
2003
Frankfurt (Reuters) ? ?A prolonged war in Iraq could trip the world into
recession, the IMF warned on Wednesday, as signs mounted that the conflict is
hitting economic sentiment.?
http://in.news.yahoo.com/030326/137/22ndn.html
Stocks worried by
war
Mild selling pushes markets to a
modest decline amid concern about the pace of war in
Iraq.
March 26, 2003:
5:52 PM
EST
By Alexandra Twin,
CNN/Money Staff Writer
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Consumer
confidence falls
Closely watched measure of consumer sentiment,
critical for broader economy, slips again.
Mark Gongloff
CNN Money
March 25, 2003
NEW YORK
(CNN/Money) - The confidence of U.S. consumers, whose spending fuels more than
two-thirds of the nation's economy, dipped slightly in the days before a
U.S.-led war with Iraq, a research group said Tuesday.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/25/news/economy/consumer/index.htm
What
Economic Price This War?
by
James K. Galbraith
Boston Globe
March 24, 2003
?RECENTLY AS we
debated the war now underway in Iraq, seven Nobel laureates joined 150 other US
economists (including myself) to call for careful consideration of the costs of
war in Iraq. When economists talk about costs, what do we mean? First, we mean
budget costs -- for gasoline, equipment, and explosives -- that begin at about
$100 billion. This figure is based on an assumption that the war goes well. It
the assumption is wrong, the numbers will go up fast. The history of warfare --
from Europe in 1914 to
Vietnam in the
1960s -- is littered with gross underestimates of budget costs... ?
http://www.commondreams.org/views03/0324-02.htm
War
is main economic threat
NABE
survey shows how economists rank war, federal spending, deficit in terms of threat to economy.
Reuters
March
24, 2003
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. war against Iraq and the possibility
of terror attacks on American soil pose the biggest threats to the U.S. economy,
according to a survey of economists released Monday. In a canvass of 223
business economists conducted before the United
States and
Britain launched
military action against
Iraq, 41 percent
tagged war and terror attacks as the main risks the still-struggling
U.S. economy
faces, the National Association for Business Economics said.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/24/news/economy/war_survey.reut/index.htm
NABE
Panel: War and Domestic Security Are Biggest Threats Facing U.S.
Economy
National Association for
Business Economics (NAB)
24 March 2003"Geopolitical risks - war in Iraq and
domestic security - currently constitute the biggest threat to the U.S. economy,
according to the latest canvass of NABE members on policy issues," says Tim
O'Neill, President of NABE and Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group..."
http://www.nabe.com/publib/pol/03/pol0303.html
Which
Companies Will Put
Iraq
Back Together?
By Diana B. Henriques,
New York
Times
23 March 2003
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/23/business/23REBU.html?ei=5007&en=fdb44169aa212270&ex=1049000400&partner=USERLAND&pagewanted=print&position=top
Alert
- War's impact on business
Economist Intelligence Unit (summary)
21 March 2003
http://riskwire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=display_article&doc_id=245916
Halliburton
Makes a Killing on
Iraq
War
Pratap Chatterjee
CorpWatch.org
20 March
2003
CorpWatch
has learned that VP Cheney's former company has a $multi-million contract
servicing troops in Kuwait.
This special series looks at how Halliburton profits from
the Iraq
war, now that bombs are falling on Baghdad.
http://www.corpwatch.org/issues/PID.jsp?articleid=6008
Putin aide says
Iraq
war damaging to Russian economy in longer term
Interfax
20
March 2003
http://www.cdi.org/russia/249-10.cfm
How much will war
cost?
Mark Gongloff
CNN/Money
March 19, 2003
The tab for invading,
occupying and rebuilding Iraq could be hundreds of billions of dollars
[Boxed and bulleted
version with good links]
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/17/news/economy/war_cost/index.htm
Fed says view
cloudy
Central bank holds rates unchanged, promises 'heightened
surveillance' of U.S. economy.
CNN Money
March 18, 2003
NEW YORK
(CNN/Money) - The Federal Reserve held a key short-term interest rate unchanged
Tuesday, but expressed uncertainty about the health of the U.S. economy on the
eve of war with Iraq.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/18/news/economy/fed/index.htm
Stocks at a time
of war and peace
Justin Lahart,
CNN/Money
March 17, 2003
Think the outbreak of war is a good time to invest? Think
again.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/18/markets/warreact/index.htm
Prospect for war
and the economy: two sources of consumer uncertainty
ANN ARBOR,
Mich.?"Consumer confidence declined in February due to growing apprehensions
about the prospects of war with Iraq as well as the possibility of domestic
terrorism..."
3 March 2003
http://www.umich.edu/news/Releases/2003/Mar03/r030303.html
IMF head: No shock from
Iraq war
CNN Money
February 15, 2003
World recession
not a danger if war erupts over
Iraq arms
issues, says Koehler. FRANKFURT (Reuters) - International
Monetary Fund head Horst Koehler said in an interview with a German newspaper
released on Saturday that he did not believe the world economy will fall into
recession as a result of a war in
Iraq. http://www.google.ch/search?q=cache:c6ej2KoTmksC:money.cnn.com/2003/02/15/news/international/bc.economy.imf.iraq.reut/+IMF+IraQ&hl=en&ie=UTF-8
Greenspan: Iraq war threatens U.S.
economy
Shihoko Goto
UPI
11 February 2003
"A potential war against
Iraq is the single biggest threat to economic health, Federal Reserve Board
Chairman Alan Greenspan cautioned members of the Senate Banking Committee on
Tuesday..."
http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20030211-110038-7792r.htm
Price
of war: Long or short, some economic shock waves ahead for
U.S.
John
Gallagher
Free Press
February
8, 2003
http://www.freep.com/news/nw/econ8_20030208.htm
The cost of war
Three sobering assessments about the economic ramifications of
war with Iraq.
Kathleen Hays,
CNN/Money
February 6, 2003:
http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/05/commentary/column_hays/hays/index.htm
The myth
of the war economy
Markets loathe uncertainty and volatility. Conflict
brings both
Joseph Stiglitz
The Guardian
January 22, 2003
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,9115,879724,00.html
An
Iraq war's economic
toll
Early estimates put the total cost as high as $200 billion, but
economists say it's hard to figure the actual impact.
Ron
Scherer
The Christian Science Monitor
September 26,
2002
http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0926/p03s01-usec.html