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Updated Garfield excess death estimate

Professor Richard Garfield, an epidemiologist and leading authority on health effects of sanctions, 
recently updated his estimate [1] of excess deaths due to sanctions in Iraq. The revised figure is 
cited in Welch's article [2].

Professor Garfield's latest estimate is 350,000 excess deaths among children under 5 over the 
period roughly since sanctions began to this year [3].  Note that no claim is made as to the cause 
of these excess deaths.  Also note this is an approximation only, as Professor Garfield is planning 
to revisit all of these data soon to check and further update estimates.

Garfield intends his estimate to be a CONSERVATIVE LOWER BOUND.  In using this figure, it's correct 
to say:

"we are confident that AT LEAST 350,000 excess deaths occurred among Iraqi children under five over 
the period roughly since sanctions began to this year."  

Garfield's research changed when UNICEF's 1999 survey data became available:
- 1) Pre-UNICEF/99 estimates attempted to statistically adjust and project for a paucity of data, 
while working around prior studies known to be flawed. 
- 2) Post-UNICEF estimates were based upon UNICEF's representative sample survey for indirect 
mortality estimation, with excess death estimates calculated using more conservative fertitlity and 
population estimates than used by UNICEF. 

Thanks to Professor Garfield for his ongoing work in this area.

Drew Hamre
Golden Valley, MN USA
(new email:

[1] See the citations and links for Garfield at 
<>, chiefly 

<> and 



[3] Welch gives the range as between "August 1991 and last year" though he may have intended 

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