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News, 10-16/11/01 (1) The worldıs attention has been diverted elsewhere this week to the victory won by the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaris over the Pashtun in Afghanistan. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing for Afghanistan, it has the depressing side effect of confirming US governments in the notion that mighty, satisfying victories can be won cheaply and easily. Which puts us in a difficult position: do we hope the whole thing blows up in their faces, with all the suffering that will create for the people of Afghanistan? or do we hope that it will all go smoothly, thus encouraging the USled world terrorist movement to even greater efforts? FINGER POINTING AT IRAQ * The Iraqi connection [If you meet a man of middle eastern appearance with long silvery hair, wearing jeans, silver chains and sunglasses, be afraid ... be very afraid ... Short extract from long article which appeared last Sunday in the Observer] * 2 more Sept.11 hijackers tied to Iraq [This from the New York Post summarises those few elements in the above Observer article that are new] * Iraq urged to seek peaceful solution [by Yasser Arafat. The article includes a chilling last sentence in which the name Madeleine Albrightı once again appears before our eyes] * Egypt moves to avert US strike on Iraq [Reflects a general anxiety in the area that the US is planning to attack Iraq if it doesnıt let inspectors in] * No deal yet with Moscow on Iraq sanctions -Britain [Here we seem to be back to the question of smart sanctionsı] * Israeli Minister seeks to calm panic [over possible consequences of a US attack on Iraq] * Jordan not to allow its land for US attack [Madeleine Albright pops up again, in Cairo. Could it be? Could Egypt have sunk so low? that she has been invited there to address the Arab Womenıs conference???] * The Prague Connection: Saddam and bin Laden [Extract. William Safire, who has already announced his intention of pushing this story for all its worth. He has a new detail: that Saddam sent an Iraqi specialist to Afghanistan to attend to OBLıs kidney problems] * Next stop, Baghdad {The Jerusalem Post longs to see democracy and freedom throughout the Muslim world. But doesnıt democracy mean the streetı? And doesnıt the Jerusalem Post have some problems with the streetı in the Muslim world?] OIL * Iraq Manufactures Oil Tanks, Refiners Through Own Efforts * OPEC losing $30 billion because of oil price decline, says Iraq * OPEC trapped in Iraq quagmire * Iraqi oil minister comments on OPEC decision to cut oil production * War on terrorism brings focus to oil alternatives [Extracts. US hegemony over the world is seen by James Woolsey among others to require a more virtuous energy policy, or alternately a more vigorous destruction of Alaska] AND, IN NEWS, 10-16/11/01 (2) NORTHERN IRAQ/SOUTHERN KURDISTAN * Saddam meets Kurds, renews dialogue offer [This article, from CNN, has President Hussein addressing a delegation from the KDPı, identified as the KDP in power in the autonomous zone] * Saddam Warns Kurds [Here it becomes a pro-government Kurdish groupı] * Saddam Comments to Kurd Collaborator Group [Here they appear as a Kurd collaborator groupı rather extravagantly so but they are still called the Kurdistan Democratic Partyı. This is a transcript of S.Husseinıs speech., in his own inimitable style, e.g.: Saddam Husayn is a peaceful and poor man who does not frighten anybody and does not use the language of force. Right? (laughs)ı] * KDP And PUK Meet In Dokan [The article refers to continued heavy fightingı between the PUK and the Jund al Islam] IRAQI/MIDDLE EAST-ARAB WORLD RELATIONS * Iraq lauds Mrs. Mubarak's advocacy of Arab women's causes [In advance of a conference of Arab women being held in Cairo] * Kuwait jails five Iraqis for subversion * Kuwaitis Reported To Be in Iraqi Jail * Kuwait says Iraq fires mortar, complains to UN * Syrian traders violate export conditions for Iraq [It isnıt clear if this is to do with UN sanctions or simply Syriaıs own trade legislation] * Iraq and Iran exchange war dead * US Deploys Troops to Kuwait for Exercise IRAQI/INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS * Chhabria's Jumbo group bags UN projects in Iraq * Iraq calls on UN members to reject SC authority REFUGEES * No way out for Iraqi refugee [Refugees. Iıve not been posting many stories about the fate of Iraqi refugees but its all part of the same ghastly story and I think I should start] FINGER POINTING AT IRAQ http://observer.co.uk/focus/story/0,6903,591439,00.html * THE IRAQI CONNECTION The Observer, 11th November (Additional reporting by Ed Vulliamy in New York and Kate Connolly in Berlin.) [.....] According to the defectors, he has an unusual ability to change his appearance and operate under cover. One defector recalls a meeting in the early 1990s when al-Ani had long, silver hair, and wore jeans, silver chains and sunglasses. Al-Ani explained he was about to undertake a mission which required him to look like a Western hippy. A member of Saddam's Baathist party since his youth, al-Ani also has extensive experience working with radical Islamists such as Mohamed Atta. [.....] http://www.nypost.com/news/worldnews/34155.htm * 2 MORE SEPT.11 HIJACKERS TIED TO IRAQ by William Neuman New York Post, 12th November The CIA has evidence that two more hijackers, besides terror leader Mohamed Atta, met with Iraqi intelligence officials earlier this year - bolstering arguments for a Baghdad role in the attacks, it was reported yesterday. The two other skyjackers were Atta's friends and co-conspirators, Marwan al-Shehhi and Ziad Samir Jarrah, who were believed to have been at the controls of two of the pirated jets on Sept. 11. The Observer newspaper of London reported yesterday that senior U.S. intelligence sources said they have "credible information" al-Shehhi and Jarrah met with an Iraqi agent last spring. The secret meetings took place in the United Arab Emirates, the paper reported. Czech officials have previously said Atta had two meetings with a top Iraqi spy, the first in June 2000, just before flying to the U.S. and the second last April. Atta, al-Shehhi and Jarrah became close while attending school in Germany, and started an Islamic student group together in Hamburg. Czech Prime Minister Milos Zeman said last week his country believes Atta and the Iraqis discussed a truck bomb attack on Radio Free Europe. A diplomatic source also told the Observer that Iraqi spies may have held at least two other meetings with yet more members of the 19-member hijacking team in Prague this year. The Observer also reported that Iraqi defectors claim Baghdad has been conducting terrorist training camps for years. There has been a fierce debate in the Bush administration about whether Iraq played a role in the attacks, with a Pentagon faction pushing to extend the war on terror to Saddam Hussein's regime. http://www.bahraintribune.com/tue/middle.asp?Art_No=605 * IRAQ URGED TO SEEK PEACEFUL SOLUTION Bahrain Tribune (AP), 13th November Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is urging Saddam Hussein to resolve his conflict with the United States peacefully, a Palestinian envoy to Iraq said yesterday. Arafatıs position is in marked contrast to that in the 1991 Gulf War when he supported Saddam against a US-led international coalition. The Palestinians later paid a high price for Arafatıs policy, with Gulf countries expelling thousands of Palestinians after the war in retaliation. Since then, the Palestinians have been more cautious. In the previous confrontation between Iraq and the United States several months ago, Arafatıs Palestinian National Authority stayed on the sidelines. Yesterday, the Palestinian Public Works Minister, Azzam Ahmed, was en route to Iraq to deliver a message from Arafat to Saddam who is engaged in a showdown with the United States and the United Nations over weapons inspection. ³President Arafat saw it was necessary to reiterate the Palestinian concern for the safety of the Iraqi people and to assure the (Iraqi) leadership that we would like to see a peaceful solution,² Ahmed told the Voice of Palestine radio station. Ahmed, a former PLO representative in Iraq, left for Iraq a day after Arafat met with U.S Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. http://www.bahraintribune.com/tue/middle.asp?Art_No=172 * EGYPT MOVES TO AVERT US STRIKE ON IRAQ Bahrain Tribune, 13th November EGYPT yesterday launched an initiative to bring 14 Arab countries together in a joint stand to avert a military strike against Iraq. The initiative came as the United States turned down a compromise that the Russians said Iraq had made to resolve the crisis. Late last night, Iraq denied that it had made any compromise. The Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, contacted 13 Arab leaders during the day to draft a joint position on the Iraqi standoff with the United Nations over arms inspections. The move followed a message urging restraint that Mubarak sent to the Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein. Mubarak spoke by telephone with the Kings of Jordan and Morocco, Omanıs Sultan, the Amirs of Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, the Presidents of Yemen, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, and Saudi Arabiaıs Crown Prince. The Egyptian Foreign Minister, Amr Mussa, said: ³In these intensive contacts, Egypt is trying (to carry out) a positive joint Arab action to deal with the various parties involved in the crisis.² ³We must avoid the military option and give diplomatic efforts every chance² to succeed,² he said. The Arab League Secretary-General, Esmat Abdul Meguid, was to travel to Iraq, but put off the visit pending a meeting with the Iraqi Foreign Minister in Cairo tomorrow. Meanwhile, newspaper editorials from Egypt to Saudi Arabia called for a diplomatic not a military solution to the crisis. Turkey said that its Foreign Minister, Ismail Cem, would travel to the Iraqi capital later this week in a bid to defuse the crisis. The Palestinian President, Yasser Arafat, dispatched an aide to Baghdad with a letter for Saddam. The British Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, told the House of Commons that London ³was taking the lead² in the UN Security Council with a draft resolution seeking to ensure that Iraq allowed full and unrestricted access to the sites. The resolution, to be discussed with other council members, also calls on Iraq to reveal all details of its weapons of mass destruction programmes, Cook said. The Iraqi Foreign Minister, Mohammed Saeed Al Sahhaf, told Iraqıs Parliament yesterday that Baghdad is taking every measure to forestall a US attack. The Russian President, Boris Yeltsin, maintained his personal telephone diplomacy. The Kremlin said Yeltsin had spoken to the US President, Bill Clinton, who was said to have reacted to Russiaıs efforts ³with understanding.² But he had stressed his readiness to use force if diplomatic efforts failed. Yeltsin also spoke twice to the President of France, Jacques Chirac. Iraq late last night denied a Russian report that it had agreed to allow UN inspectors to enter the eight sites if they were nominated by their respective Governments. According to the denied reports, the compromise had been that inspectors must also be accompanied by diplomats from the permanent members of the Security Council Britain, China, France, Russia and the US. The Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs, Riyad Al Qaysi, replying to the reports of the compromise offer, said Saddam had not discussed such measures in a meeting with a Russian envoy. ³That statement is totally, totally incorrect,² Qaysi told a news conference in Baghdad. The US is determined to force Iraq to comply with UN demands issued after the 1991 Gulf War that Baghdad allow inspection and destruction of its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programmes, as well as its missile programmes. The Iraqi Government has told UN inspectors it has already provided all relevant data on its weapons programmes and last month, insisted that inspectors would have no access to ³Presidential sites.² France, Russia and China, the three other permanent members of the Security Council, in addition to the US and Britain, are pressing for a non-military solution to the crisis. But Washington, backed by Britain, says it has sufficient authority to launch an attack under previous UN resolutions. The Jordanian Foreign Minister, Fayez Tarawneh, warned of a catastrophe in the entire Middle East in the event of a US military strike on Iraq. US military intervention in Iraq would have ³negative social and economic consequences on Jordan and political consequences on the whole region,² he reportedly told the Ambassadors of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council to discuss the crisis. Crown Prince Hassan ruled out the use of Jordanian territory for any attack on Iraq. http://news.excite.com/news/r/011113/18/iraq-un-britain * NO DEAL YET WITH MOSCOW ON IRAQ SANCTIONS -BRITAIN by Irwin Arieff Excite, 13th November UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said Tuesday that he had failed in talks with his Russian counterpart to come up with an acceptable compromise on overhauling U.N. sanctions on Iraq. After his talks with Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, "there is not yet agreement with Russia," Straw told reporters. The talks took place on the sidelines of the annual general debate of the 189-nation U.N. General Assembly, which began Saturday. At issue is a draft U.N. Security Council resolution, sponsored by the United States and Britain, that would lift restraints on the import of civilian goods to Iraq and attempt to cut off oil and other goods smuggled in and out of the country through porous borders. Russia threatened earlier this year to veto the "smart sanctions" plan and Iraq -- which demands the total lifting of the sanctions imposed after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait -- halted oil flows in June for about a month until it was certain the measure would not be approved. Secretary of State Colin Powell has discussed the issue several times with Ivanov, and the subject may come up at this week's Texas summit between President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Straw said he had discussed with Ivanov a revision of the plan opposed by Moscow the last time around. He did not say what the proposed changes were but diplomats said they would not be submitted unless Russia showed signs of compromise. Iraq's oil-for-food program comes up for renewal on Nov. 30 and the 15-nation U.N. Security Council must approve a resolution by then either extending the current program or revamping it. The program allows Baghdad to sell unlimited quantities of oil to buy, food, medicine and other civilians goods, an exception to sanctions imposed in 1990. The oil revenues are controlled by the United Nations, which pays suppliers of goods Iraq orders. http://www.bahraintribune.com/tue/middle.asp?Art_No=196 * ISRAELI MINISTER SEEKS TO CALM PANIC Bahrain Tribune (AFP), 13th November A senior Israeli Minister took to the air waves yesterday to calm growing popular alarm over the possibility Iraq will attack the country with biological weapons. ³There is absolutely no cause for panic,² the Deputy Prime Minister, Moshe Katzav, said on Israel Radio. ³Iraq is far from having the same military capabilities it had in 1990 before the Gulf War and it would be suicidal for it to attack us,² said Katzav, who is also Tourism Minister. Thousands of Israelis have been flocking to army distribution centres to pick up gas masks and protective clothing over the past week as the United States has increased its warnings of a military strike against Iraq to eliminate its suspected weapons of mass destruction. Israeli media fuelled popular alarm last week with reports that Washington feared Iraq could fire missiles armed with biological or chemical weapons at Israel if it came under attack. During the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq fired 39 Scud missiles with conventional warheads at Israel, killing two persons and wounding hundreds. According to UN weapons inspectors, Iraq has manufactured biological weapons, notably using anthrax and botulin agents, and may have put them on missile warheads. The Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, met health and security officials on Sunday to discuss protective measures to be taken against eventual biological attack. But the Government decided to take a low profile over the likelihood of an Iraqi attack to avoid creating a panic, Israel Television reported. A meeting of Netanyahuıs cabinet on Sunday decided that only the Prime Minister and Defence Minister, Yitzhak Mordechai, would be authorised to speak publicly about the Iraq crisis. Government officials have repeatedly stated in recent days that the likelihood that Iraq has the means or will to strike Israel was minimal. But Israeli civilians remained wary, remembering that officials made similar statements prior to the Gulf War. Israeli newspapers yesterday reflected the same alarm, publishing numerous articles on the availability of vaccines and antibiotics to treat anthrax, on the rush for gas masks and on the likelihood of an American attack on Iraq. The US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, discussed the Iraq crisis with Israeli leaders on Saturday and on Sunday and reassured them that Washington would provide warning of any Iraqi missile launches. Albright said the United States would lead a ³substantial² attack on Iraq if it persists in hampering the work of UN inspectors charged with hunting down and destroying Baghdadıs suspected stocks of weapons of mass destruction. http://www.bahraintribune.com/tue/middle.asp?Art_No=621 * JORDAN NOT TO ALLOW ITS LAND FOR US ATTACK Bahrain Tribune, 13th November Jordan will not allow United States forces to use its territory or airspace to attack Iraq, newspapers in Amman reported yesterday quoting official sources. ³Jordan will not be a base and will not serve as a passage for any American action against Iraq,² the sources were reported as saying. The same applied to Israeli forces which were reported ready to respond to a possible Iraqi strike against the Jewish state in the event of a military confrontation between Iraq and the US. Jordanıs King Hussein has urged Iraq to stop being ³stubborn² in order to avoid a military show down. Amman has also called the crisis to be resolved through diplomatic channels and urged all parties concerned to avoid the use of force. A possible U.S. strike, with the backing of Britain, would be in response to Iraqıs refusal to allow United Nations weaponsı inspectors to enter sites. King Hussein discussed the UN-Iraq crisis over arms inspections with the Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, yesterday in a telephone call, Jordanian officials said. The Monarch, who is in London on a private visit, also spoke to the Palestinian President, Yasser Arafat, by phone about the Middle East peace process. The King and Mubarak talked about ³diplomatic efforts to ward off a military strike against Iraq,² the officials said. The two heads of state stressed the need ³to contain the crisis and to find a peaceful solution in order to spare their brethren, the Iraqi people, from additional suffering.² Iraq has blocked the inspections, saying they would violate its sovereignty. King Hussein said on Saturday that a military strike against Iraq was inevitable if Baghdad continued to defy the United Nations. However, Crown Prince Hassan ibn Talal warned on Sunday that the region could not endure a US attack on Iraq. Mubarak, who is scheduled to meet the US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, today in Cairo, has sent a message to the Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein, stressing that military action should be avoided. http://www.iht.com/articles/38626.html * THE PRAGUE CONNECTION: SADDAM AND BIN LADEN by William Safire International Herald Tribune (The New York Times), 13th November [.....] Why didn't the BIS inform the United States about Mr. Atta at that time? Here was a suspected plot against a large U.S.-financed facility; within two weeks, the Czechs declared his case officer, Mr. Ani, persona non grata and shipped him back to Baghdad. Were the CIA and FBI kept in the dark about his agent flying back and forth to America under his own name of Mr. Atta, or were U.S. counterspies informed but did nothing? Last week, the Czech prime minister, Milos Zeman, confirmed to CNN that Mr. Ani and Mr. Atta met in Prague. But Mr. Zeman was eager to dissociate that meeting from planning to destroy New York's twin towers: "Atta contacted some Iraq agent ... to prepare a terrorist attack on just the building of Radio Free Europe." Really? How does the Czech prime minister know what the Iraqi spymaster and Mr. Atta discussed? He could know only if the meeting were bugged or if Mr. Ani talked before being thrown out of Prague. Was the CIA or FBI informed about the U.S. interest in why Mr. Ani was ejected, and what travelers to America had recently been in secret contact with him? After all, Mr. Atta had flown from Virginia Beach, Florida, the day before and returned the following day. That shows urgency: One does not back and forth across the Atlantic within 72 hours to meet secretly with a known Iraqi intelligence officer for no reason. We since have learned that Mr. Atta returned to the United States to open a bank account at the Sun Bank in Florida and received $100,000 to finance his mission through an Arab emirate money changer. But before that money to finance his Sept. 11 attack could pass, Mr. Atta apparently needed to stop in Prague first, where Iraq's Mr. Ani was running agents. The Prague connection links Saddam and bin Laden at the agent level. Now here is an unpublished report that suggests Saddam helps the terrorist leader on a personal level: In mid-May, two of Saddam's secret service agents arrived at the clinic of Dr. Mohammed Khayal, Baghdad's leading kidney specialist. The doctor hurriedly packed a bag and was escorted to a government car. Three days later, he was returned, and the building was soon abuzz with the word that Saddam's Dr. Khayal had been to Afghanistan where his patient was Osama bin Laden. http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/11/15/Opinion/Editorial.38158.html * NEXT STOP, BAGHDAD Jerusalem Post, 15th November [.....] Some will dismiss the liberation of Afghanistan as being tainted by ulterior motives. But there is no reason to pretend that America helped the Afghans eject the Taliban mainly out of concern for their freedom, rather than as a way station in the war against terrorism. What we should learn, though, is that freedom is no less sweet when achieved as a byproduct of other objectives. We should also keep in mind that the scenes of a tremendous weight being lifted off Kabul will only be replayed with grander exuberance on the day that Baghdad or Teheran is liberated. The Taliban may make Iran's mullahcracy look moderate, but that regime also rules with an iron fist. And the stories we hear from survivors of Saddam Hussein's sadistic brutality are just the tip of the iceberg of what will emerge when he falls. Human rights alone, except in the case of South Africa under apartheid and right-wing dictatorships in Nicaragua, Iran, and the Philippines, has not been thought of as sufficient cause for the international community to demand a change of regime. It so happens that the regimes in Iran and Iraq are as, if not more, brutal than any of the regimes that were considered kosher for toppling. And there are plenty of other brutal regimes that draw little international attention of any kind. The world is hardly consistent when it comes to doing something about freedom and human rights. But the fact that freedom seems to come into the spotlight only when other objectives are in play does not negate its relevance as a justification for international action. The regimes in Teheran and Baghdad represent the combination of oppression and aggression that should make them prime candidates for overthrow, like the Taliban in Afghanistan. And of the two, Saddam Hussein is both the most brutal to his own people and dangerous to the world. Accordingly, the US should not be shy about saying that, after Kabul, the next place to bring the jubilation of freedom should be either Teheran or Baghdad. It is hard to say which will come first, because like in Afghanistan, the US will play a supporting role to local liberation movements. The fall of the Taliban represents a particular combination of American force in support of a local uprising. In other places, the combination will be different, but the same principle can work. What should be recognized, as Michael Ledeen argued in The Wall Street Journal (November 4), the war on terrorism is actually a revolutionary war of the sort that the US is uniquely equipped to fight. "While we will have to act quickly and urgently against secret terrorist organizations and suicidal fighters," Ledeen wrote, "our ultimate targets are tyrannical governments, and our most devastating weapons are the peoples they oppress." The recent phenomenon of soccer games - the only opportunity for Iranians to congregate in large numbers - turning into anti-government rallies is a sign that Iran is ripe for the kind of bottom-up revolution that swept Central Europe. In Iraq, if the US decides to wholeheartedly back the opposition as it did the Northern Alliance, most of Saddam's army will defect and he will quickly lose control of most of the country. Once Saddam has been transformed into the mayor of Baghdad, it is only a matter of time before his regime will fall. The pursuit of freedom, it turns out, is not just an adjunct to the war on terrorism, but at its very heart. OIL http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2001111000314h2237&SA=Latest%20 News * IRAQ MANUFACTURES OIL TANKS, REFINERS THROUGH OWN EFFORTS BAGHDAD, Nov 10, 2001 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- Iraq's Oil Ministry has succeeded in manufacturing oil tanks and refiners by itself, the official Iraqi News Agency (INA) reported on Saturday. Twenty-seven oil tanks with different capacity and two oil refiners have been made and installed, and preparations for 10 other refiners are in full swing, an official of the Oil Ministry told INA. The official, speaking on customary condition of anonymity, hailed the move as a "success in breaking foreign monopoly" in these aspects. Iraq, which has been under sweeping U.N. economic sanctions after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait, says that it would develop its embargo-hit oil industry through self-reliance. Moreover, the ministry has recently stepped up efforts to discover more oil and gas resources. The Iraqi Al-Zawra weekly newspaper reported on Thursday that a large gas field has been discovered in Iraq's western desert with an estimated reserve of more than 60 billion cubic meters. Iraq has the second largest proven oil reserve in the world. http://home.kyodo.co.jp/all/display.jsp?an=20011111029 * OPEC LOSING $30 BILLION BECAUSE OF OIL PRICE DECLINE, SAYS IRAQ Kyodo (Japan), 11th November BAGHDAD, Nov. 10: Iraq's oil minister said OPEC member states have lost $30 billion from lower oil prices and demanded that the world cartel cut crude output by 1.5 million barrels a day to halt the decline of oil prices. The official Iraqi News Agency quoted Oil Minister Amir Mohammed Rasheed as saying he hopes OPEC would agree on the production cut in an emergency meeting in Vienna on Wednesday. Rasheed said the decline of crude prices started after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the U.S., adding that oil prices, which stood previously at $22 to $28 a barrel, have gone down by $7 a barrel. Rasheed said he expects a decline in demand on oil during 2002 because of a slow pace of growth in the world economy. http://www.bahraintribune.com/tue/busi.asp?Art_No=185 * OPEC TRAPPED IN IRAQ QUAGMIRE Bahrain Tribune (AFP), 13th November OPEC has again found itself trapped in the Iraqi quagmire with the market gripped by Baghdadıs standoff with the United Nations and a proposed increase in Iraqi oil supplies, experts said in Abu Dhabi yesterday. The UN move came as the market was holding its breath towards growing speculation about an imminent US strike against Iraq over the arms inspection crisis. Both developments left Opec sidelined. ³You can say OPEC is now completely outside the game and can do nothing about oil prices,² a Gulf-based oil analyst said. ³I think the organisation is now sitting and watching like the others. The price trend now hinges on developments in Iraq... This is the second or third time that OPEC is neutralised by the Iraqi issue.² Oil prices have remained above $15 despite expectations of a UN agreement to allow Iraq to export more crude to buy food and medicine for its people who are suffering from more than seven years of a crippling embargo. Sundayıs recommendation by Annan meant Iraq could sell nearly two million barrels per day (bpd) at current prices, more than double the present amount. With actual production by the 11-nation Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries running nearly 800,000 above its nominal ceiling, approval of that recommendation means there will be a surplus of more than 1.8 million bpd. But the spectre of such a large increase in OPECıs supplies to an already glutted market has been offset by growing tension in the region. ³Oil prices could tumble if the UN endorses Annanıs proposal and the Iraqi problem is resolved peacefully,² an oil expert said. ³This should prompt OPEC to act. It has to meet and decide on a course of action if Iraq is allowed to export more crude.² Under OPECıs latest output ceiling of 27.5 million bpd, Iraq was allocated 1.3 million bpd, including around 500,000 bpd for domestic consumption. The UN proposal means an additional 700,000 bpd which could push OPECıs ceiling to 28.2 million bpd unless the group decides to trim output. ³Even after the Iraqi crisis is resolved, OPEC will face a difficult situation... The first thing it should do is to meet,² an oil analyst said. ³The meeting itself will be a message to the market that OPEC is ready to act. But such a message could be counterproductive if the meeting fails and this makes it imperative for OPEC to prepare well for such a meeting.² Oil prices have already dived by nearly 30 per cent over the past three months because of OPECıs overproduction and a mild winter in the northern hemisphere. They remained under pressure by the Asian financial crisis and OPECıs decision to raise the output ceiling by around 10 per cent for the first half of 1998 without securing firm commitments from quota-busting members. According to the official Emirates news agency Wam, OPEC produced nearly 28.3 million bpd in January at a time when the economic crisis in southeast Asia depressed demand by between 300,000 and 600,000 bpd. ³OPECıs agreement to raise the ceiling was a sound decision. Compliance with quotas will restore balance to the world oil market,² the agency said, in an apparent reference to Venezuela, the main overproducer in the cartel. Experts would not speculate on whether OPEC would revise its new ceiling if the UN sanctioned the proposed increase in Iraqıs share. ³It either could be revised or kept untouched with an agreement by the other members to make concessions to give way to Iraq,² one expert said. http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR20011115670.2 _05920004e31d4241 * IRAQI OIL MINISTER COMMENTS ON OPEC DECISION TO CUT OIL PRODUCTION Hoover's (Financial Times/BBC), 15th November Source: Republic of Iraq Radio, Baghdad, in Arabic 1130 gmt 15 Nov 01 OPEC has decided to reduce its production by 1.5m barrels a day as of next year. An official source in the Iraqi delegation participating in the extraordinary meeting of OPEC, which concluded its meetings in Vienna yesterday, said that Iraq's position had an effective role in reaching agreement among the conferees that cooperation between OPEC member states and others will end oil surplus in the international market and achieve a balance between supply and demand. Iraqi Oil Minister Dr Amir Muhammad Rashid, head of Iraq's delegation to the conference, met several oil ministers participating in the conference. During these meetings, the minister stressed OPEC's ability to overcome the current crisis by making the right decision that serves the interests of member states away from external pressures. He stressed that the largest beneficiary from the reduction of oil prices in international markets is the US administration. During an exchange of views with other countries' delegations, the oil minister stressed that cutting production in a well-studied manner would certainly boost prices, but OPEC should have the lion's share in this reduction. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011116/n09371211_1.html * WAR ON TERRORISM BRINGS FOCUS TO OIL ALTERNATIVES by Manuela Badawy (Additional reporting by Soo Youn) Yahoo, 16th November [.....] Another 8 percent of the oil the United States consumes comes from countries like Iraq and Kuwait, bringing U.S. reliance on the region to nearly 30 percent of current needs. While the odds of Saudi production being disrupted by the current conflict in the near term are remote, concern has risen over the longer-term stability of the Saudi monarchy and the safety of its oil fields , energy experts say. [.....] If the possibility of a supply disruption from the Middle East is remote, it is nonetheless most likely to occur, if it ever does, in connection with Iraq. That country, run by U.S. nemesis Saddam Hussein, exports some 600,000 barrels daily to the United States -- or about 6 percent of current U.S. needs. ``Only if Iraq is attacked there will be a disruption,'' said Robert Mabro, Director of Oxford University's Institute for Energy Studies in England. ``A change of regime in Saudi Arabia is very unlikely, and even if there's a change why should they stop exporting oil?'' Critics say that for it's long term policy, the Bush administration has focused mainly on increasing domestic energy drilling and opening up Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. But it has not gone far enough to wean the United States off its oil habit. ``If it weren't for the three letter word -- oil -- we would be free in the Middle East, as we are elsewhere, to support human rights, democracy and so forth,'' Woolsey said. ``This is why waste and biomass is so important as a source for fuel,'' he said referring to organic fuels like ethanol that can be derived from plants like corn or from decomposed waste. [.....] -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email soc-casi-discuss-request@lists.cam.ac.uk CASI's website - www.casi.org.uk - includes an archive of all postings.