Press Release

7 January 2003, 07:00 GMT. For immediate release.

For more information contact:
- Jonathan Stevenson (CASI coordinator) on +44 7818 651124 or info@casi.org.uk
- Dr Glen Rangwala (CASI press contact) on +44 7880 665731 or glen@casi.org.uk
- Nathaniel Hurd (United States) on 917-407-3389 or nathaniel_hurd@hotmail.com

Confidential UN Document Predicts Humanitarian Emergency in Event of War on Iraq

A "strictly confidential" UN document, written to assist with UN contingency planning in the event of war with Iraq, predicts high civilian injuries, an extension of the existing nutritional crisis, and "the outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic proportions." The existence of the draft document, entitled "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios" and dated 10th December 2002, was first reported in the Times (London) on 23rd December 2002, but this is the first time it has been made publicly accessible. It is available at http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/war021210.html. [A summary of the document and a 4-page booklet about it are also available.]

The document focuses on the likely humanitarian consequences of a range of anticipated military scenarios. It estimates that:

• "as many as 500,000 people could require treatment to a greater or lesser degree as a result of direct or indirect injuries", based upon World Health Organisation estimates of 100,000 direct and 400,000 indirect casualties [para 23]. It indicates existing shortages of some medical items, "rendering the existing stocks inadequate" for war-increased demand [para 22], and exacerbated by the "likely absence of a functioning primary health care system in a post-conflict situation" [para 24].
• damage to the electricity network will reduce "water and sa