Notes on "Integrated Humanitarian Contingency Plan for Iraq and Neighbouring Countries"

Source: Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, "Integrated Humanitarian Contingency Plan for Iraq and Neighbouring Countries", confidential draft, 7 January 2003, http://www.cesr.org/iraq/docs/contingency.pdf and http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/internal.html

Pagination note: In the original document, page 1 begins with "I. Scope and Purpose of the Integrated Plan". In the on-line version, the page numbers do not appear on most pages. A reference in this summary to, for example, [p. 3(5)], denotes page 3 in the original number scheme, which is the 5th page in the PDF version hosted on the CASI website.

Text Note: The below text is transcript. Please check against the original.

Illegible Text: See the end of this note for select text clarification, checked against an alternative original.

Key Quotes

"In the event of a crisis, 30 percent of children under 5 would be at risk of death from malnutrition" [p. 3(5)]
Note: * 30% of 4.2 million children under five [p. 3(5)] = 1.26 million children under five

"the collapse of essential services in Iraq ... could lead to a humanitarian emergency of proportions well beyond the capacity of UN agencies and other aid organizations" [p. 4(6)]

"all UN agencies have been facing severe funding constraints that are preventing them from reaching even minimum levels of preparedness" [p. 1(3)]

"the effects of over 12 years of sanctions, preceded by war, have considerably increased the vulnerability of the population". [p. 3(5)]

"WFP [world food programme] estimates that approximately 10 million people ... would be highly food insecure, displaced or directly affected by military action" [p. 11(13)]

"in the event of a crisis, only 39 percent of the population would be serviced [with water] on a rationed basis" [p. 12(14)]

"UNHCR estimates that up to 1.45 million refugees and asylum-seekers may seek to flee Iraq in the event of a military conflict" [p. 9(11)]

"Up to 900,000 people may be displaced in addition to the 900,000-1,100,000 existing IDPs [internally displaced persons]" [p. 10(12)]

[from tables on p. 12(14)]
5,210,000 are highly vulnerable children under five and pregnant and lactating women.
500,000 potential direct and indirect casualties (overall population).
3,020,000 at nutritional risk (overall population).
18,240,000 might need access to treated water.
8,710,000 may need sanitation facilities.

Overall Summary

Inability of UN to deal with a crisis

Lack of funding is a 'key constraint' on UN humanitarian planning: "all UN agencies have been facing severe funding constraints that are preventing them from reaching even minimum levels of preparedness". There has been no external funding, and internal funding is no more than limited borrowing opportunities. The situation may have changed since January 7, when the document was produced.

"at the first indication of hostilities, all UN internationally-recruited staff would be evacuated from Iraq." "there is a significant risk that UN local staff may be confined to their houses, displaced due to the severity of the military conflict or mobilized by the government".

Nutrition and health

"Under-five mortality rate in the Center and South of Iraq (136 per 1,000 live births) remains at 2.5 times the level recorded in 1990. Half of the pregnant women are anaemic, and as a result, more than 30 percent of babies are born with low birth weight (compared to 5 per cent in 1990, making them much more vulnerable to death and under-development"

"The improvement in malnutrition rates since 1996 is highly fragile and depends on a continuing distribution of food and regular supply of potable water. An estimated 4.2 million children under five and one million pregnant women are highly vulnerable. In the event of a crisis, 30 percent of children under 5 would be at risk of death from malnutrition"

"household reserves are expected to last no longer than six weeks, and widespread hunger would follow if food distributions are not resumed quickly" [p. 8(10)]

"there is a significant risk of measles outbreaks since current vaccination coverage is only around 80 percent"

"the basic health infrastructure is not fully restored and cannot be relied upon"

Assumptions made

The document offers low-, medium- and high-impact scenarios for military campaign. Most of the UN planning is based on a 'medium-impact' scenario, where:

"the military campaign encounters significant resistance, but ends after a more protracted period of two to three months. as a result of a large scale ground offensive supported by aerial bombardments, there would be considerable destruction of critical infrastructure and sizeable internal and external population movements. Access to war-affected civilians would be severely limited for the duration of the conflict"

Humanitarian context in Iraq

"[T]he effects of over 12 years of sanctions, preceded by war, have considerably increased the vulnerability of the population". Most Iraqis have exhausted their cash and material assets.

"80 percent of the average household income is constituted by the food ration"

"60 percent of the population (around 16 million persons) rely solely on the monthly food basket to meet all household needs and would be directly and seriously affected by a disruption of the food distribution system."

The 30% of babies born with low birth weight will be "much more vulnerable to death and under-development"

"4.2 million children under five and 1 million pregnant women are highly vulnerable"

"[I]n the event of a crisis, 30 percent of children under 5 would be at risk of death from malnutrition"

"significant risk of measles outbreaks"

Illegible text

Clarification of text which is illegible in the online version:

Pg. 3(5), "Water and sanitation": "has access to potable water (92%)."

Pg. 8(10), "Food Stocks at the Household Level": "by the government to distribute"

Pg. 12(14), "Health and Nutrition" table:
Nutrition:
540,000
1,200,000
1,030,000
190,000

Pg. 12(14), "Water and Sanitation" table:
Water, North: 3,700,000
Sanitation, Baghdad Area: 4,000,000
Sanitation, North: 3,700,000
Sanitation, Total: 8,710,000

The Center for Economic and Social Rights obtained these confidential documents from several UN personnel who believe that the potential humanitarian impact of war is a matter of global public concern that should be discussed fully and openly.

For further information, in the USA please contact: Roger Normand, CESR Executive Director (tel +1-718-237-9145 ext. 12, rnormand@cesr.org) or Sarah Zaidi, CESR Research Director (tel +1-718-237-9145 ext. 19, szaidi@cesr.org).

In the UK, please contact Glen Rangwala on 07880 665731.

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