FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION

OF THE UNITED NATIONS

IN IRAQ
 
 

ADVERSE EFFECT OF THE DROUGHT ON

DOMESTIC FOOD PRODUCTION

DURING 1998/1999 in Iraq
 
 

Baghdad

May, 1999

ADVERSE EFFECT OF THE DROUGHT ON

DOMESTIC FOOD PRODUCTION

DURING 1998/1999 in Iraq

1. Background

Central and South

A 50-96 per cent decrease in rainfall during 98/99 winter season has caused complete failure in germination of about 70% in the rainfed areas, and very low yields (expected) in the remaining 30%. This is equivalent to a loss of wheat and barley production of 37% and 63% of the annual average respectively.

The situation was already grave in the irrigated areas because of water logging and salinisation due to failing drainage pumps, decrease in supply of irrigation water, frequent power cuts, and breakdowns in the irrigation systems resulting from lack of replacement and maintenance. Problems are compounded further by very low flows in the two main rivers and low supply levels in reservoirs, especially in the Tigris Basin, where flows are the lowest since recording started in the 1930s. The situation in Euphrates River basin is also not encouraging. Water resources for the period October '98 - April '99 as shown in Tabe (1) were only 43% of the average for the same months. Moreover, the water shortage beside the summer cropping season of 1999 will also severely affect irrigation in the forthcoming winter cropping, in 1999. The very low rainfall is the main cause for the lowering of water tables and drying up of irrigation wells, thus further reducing the availability of water for irrigation. In addition low flows will lead to an increase in salinity intrusion in the Shatt El-Arab and adjacent groundwater tables and most likely also in the lower reaches of the rivers.

Table -1 Quantities of water in selected major Rivers during the winter cropping season 1998/1999
 

River's Name	Quantities in Billion m3		% of the current quantities against the average
	Quantities during 98/99 season	General average
Ti gris - at Mosul	5.72	11.78	48
Upper Zap	3.23	7.24	44
Lower Zap	1.6	4.3	37
Diyala	1.1	3.85	29
Total	11.65	27.2	42.8

Source: MOA effect of adverse climatic condition on agricultural production during the 1998/99, - Winter Season - Baghdad April 1999

The situation is aggravated by the rise in temperature. Maximum and minimum monthly temperatures for the period of October 1998 - March 1999 were higher than the general average and in some areas by 6 ^oC

Untreated effluent from malfunctioning sewage systems throughout the 15 governorates flows into rivers and poses an increasingly serious environmental hazard. Apart from Baghdad, pumping stations and treatment facilities are deteriorating rapidly because of delays in ordering and installation of the needed rehabilitation inputs. With regard to the constraints in the electricity sector, load shedding is likely to be more in 1999 than in 1998, thus aggravating the problems in the irrigated areas, where majority of the pumps are electrically (mains) operated without standby generators .

The Three Northern Governorates

The Three Northern Governorates have also experienced low and highly erratic rainfall, in time and space as well as increases in daily maximum temperatures up to the end of February 1998. Table (3) shows a comparison between the rainfall during the two last winter cropping seasons in Erbil.

The total rainfall in Erbil governorate during 1998-1999 cropping season amounted to 111.1mm., while for the same period during the previous season is 325.3mm.

Taking into consideration the linear relationship that exists between rainfed cereal yield, and the amount of rainfall during the growing season, Most of the crop stand were at wilting stage. Therefore, the yields of the wheat and barley crops has been drastically reduced and have led, to a total crop failure in the plains region.

Magnitude of the problem and proposed measures

Central and South

The drought has resulted in great damage to the agricultural production. The damage is a direct consequence of the failure of rain which brought about shortage of irrigation water and shortage of hydro-generated electricity that led to frequent power cuts and rationing, as well as rise in temperature. Estimated general damage in both rainfed and irrigated areas is shown in Table (3):
 

*Source: Weather Station in Erbil

1. Total Rainfall from September 1997 to February 1998= 325.3 mm
2. Total Rainfall from September 1998 to February 1999= 111.1 mm

The drastic reduction in agricultural production during the 1998/1999 cropping seasons in both rainfed and irrigated areas is anticipated to have severe effects during the forthcoming season. The farmers who suffered great losses will have very little to supplement their food ration, and will be facing extreme difficulties in paying back their debt, as well as financing the purchase of needed input for the next season. Consequently, a reduction in the cultivated area is envisaged, if no remedial measures are taken.

Although Iraqi population is indiscriminately receiving food ration, it is evident, that most of the population relies on local production to supplement the ration, especially with regard to those items not included in the basket. Due to the reduction of agricultural production and envisaged reduction in vegetable and fruit supply, prices of agricultural products will increase and most of the complementary food items will be out of reach for a large part of the population.

Disproportion between livestock population and the amount of available fodder has already manifested. Fodder supply will continue to be critical during the coming nine months provided that drought conditions end by the next winter season.

The cereal prices particularly barley will increase and herders' ability to feed their animals will drastically reduce. Mortality rates of animals will be on the increase, while mass animal sale is envisaged with a drop in animal prices. The most herders vulnerable will be effected.

Lack of drinking water in remote pastures will lead to animal concentration at watering points or settlements, and this in turn will lead to overgrazing and environmental degradation, in and around such areas.

The Three Northern Governorates

Drastic reduction in the rainfall during the 1998-1999 seasons, coupled by increasing in temperatures during the cropping season had resulted in severe damage to winter crops and the growth of natural pastures.

The findings of FAO field surveys assessing the impact of the drought (Rainfall shortage) on cultivation of wheat and barley crops in the three Northern Governorates for 1998-1999 agricultural season, indicated that cultivated areas under wheat and barley have declined by 16.9% and 8.9%, respectively in comparison to the area cultivated during the agricultural season 1997-1998.

The survey clearly indicted that during the 1998-1999 season, 32% and 14% decreases of yields per donum for wheat and barley respectively are anticipated, in comparison to 1997/1998 season.

The drought will also adversely affect livestock and poultry production and health, as the availability of seed sources--natural pasture and cereal feed supplements of barley and wheat -- will be scarce. The transhumant livestock from the central to northern governorates, which are now at the level of 350,000 heads in Dohuk governorate, will further reduce the availability of the meager pasture there and degrade the already deteriorated natural rangelands. Furthermore, due to the low water levels at the Dokan and Derbendikhan reservoirs, there will be limited hydroelectric generation, and the electricity cuts will also have serious negative impact on poultry production. Summer cereal, orchard and vegetable crops will also be adversely affected due to the falling watertables in the shallow wells, the limited or non-existant water flows from small streams, rivers and springs, as well as shortages in electricity. Social and economic implications will also be severe resulting in the migration of farm labour to urban cities. Income generation will decrease and cost of animal feed supplements will sky rocket, affecting the availability and affordability of dairy products, and livestock and poultry meat.

The effect of drought on cereal crops such as wheat and barley, include shortening of the growth period of the plants. In this situation, harvesting will become difficult. The process of cutting or windrow pick- up by combine harvesters can not be carried out perfectly. The operator will be obliged to lower the equipment (i.e. cutting platform) causing it to pick up stones and other foreign materials in addition to having a bad effect on engine performance. The drought also has effects on the quality and size of the grains. The grains obtained will be weak and light which are easily damaged (broken and cracked). All these combined will increase the percentage of grain losses. The output efficiency of the combine harvesters will be greatly reduced.

The severe drought of this winter in the region is exceptional, as such a drought has never occurred for more than 120 years (The date of registration of meteorological data). This drought has an enormous negative effect on the reforestation activities and on raising forestry seedlings in the nurseries. The rainfall needed for, natural forests is not less than 500 mm. The effect on the forestry could be concluded as follows:

1. About 40-50 percent of the reforested forest tree seedlings are expected to fail.
2. Directly sown forest tree seeds in the catchment areas of Dokan, Darbandikhan, and Dohuk dams could germinate and then with due lack of further rains.
3. The drought is going bring about more cost for the irrigation of the planted trees near the roads using water tankers, and for watering of the small seedlings in the forest nurseries.
4. Although the drought brings less grass vegetation, the dryness of this vegetation is going to cause early forest fires and boil wind evasion.
5. The lesser quantity of water stored in the reservoirs due to the drought will lead to lesser hydropower thereby increasing the need for diesel generators, for the irrigation of the seedlings in the nurseries.
6. The drought will have negative effect on the quality and quantity of local forest seeds, which are currently needed for the production of seedlings in the next season.

2. Irrigation: Overview

Central and South

In brief the overview of irrigated agriculture outlook during the forthcoming season is as follows:

• Unofficial estimations indicate that out of the 3.5 million ha equipped for irrigated agriculture in the Euphrates and Tigris basins, about 2 million ha would be cultivated during the winter and about 1.1-1.2 million ha during the summer, each basin takes roughly half of the irrigated area;
• Although the MOA study has not addressed directly the situation in the Euphrates River basin, some sources believe that water availability this basin seems to be less critical.
• FAO field experts estimated the national storage capacity on the Euphrates river (Qadyssia) is limited to 8.2 km3, sufficient to irrigate not more than 200,000 -250,000 ha.

Central and South

In assessing the priorities the following considerations have to be taken into account:

• Where water supply is a constraint, priority has to be accorded to domestic water supply, agricultural water supply for orchards, vegetables, strategic crops and other.
• Intensification of agricultural production should be located in irrigated areas where problems with salinization and water logging are minor as well as where the infrastructure (weirs, pumping stations, canals, diversions structures, drains) are in such a state, that maintenance and repairs to make it fully operational do not require much time or resources. Moreover, the required equipment and machinery should be available in the country.
• Priority should be given to areas that can be irrigated by gravity provided required water levels can be maintained, followed by schemes that are supplied by diesel or electric stations, with standby generators for the electric stations.
• Priority should be given to drought tolerant crops consuming less water, with emphasis on wheat and barley during the winter, and corn and vegetables during the summer. Orchards should receive priority in irrigation. The area normally allocated to cotton and rice should be drastically reduced.
• With water supply at farm level in the priority areas improved, farmers should have unconstrained access to agricultural machinery, seeds, fertilizer and pesticides.

This paper includes different proposed interventions under four categories and they are as follows:

• The emergency requirements are referred to those actions needed to be fulfilled between end of May and November 1999 (the start of the winter cropping season).

• Short term requirements are for the period October 1999- May 2000.

• Medium term covers the period May 2000-May 2002.

• Long term covers the period beyond May 2002.

Central and South

The Ministry of Agriculture's emergency and short term intervention measures included the following proposals:

• Additional dose of 15kg of Nitrogen fertilizer per donum to be given to the cropped area under irrigation including supplementary irrigation.

• Organization of a national campaign with participation of all departments concerned for securing irrigation water for crop production.

• Delegation of authority to the Governorates' Directors (Muhafez) to adjust the agricultural plan and determine the cultivable areas within their territory.

The main MOA proposal for medium and long terms actions included the following:

• Provision of inputs needed for vertical production under irrigation.
• Establishment of applied research studies on crop irrigation (number of irrigations, timing in relation to soil type, ploughing, planting dates and pest control).
• Expansion in sprinkler irrigation in the rainfed areas.
• Application of proper practices in planting, ploughing and use of machinery.
• Study the possibility of realizing of South Al-Jazera irrigation project and completion of some phases of the Rabia project.
• Encourage the private sector to lease agricultural implements.
• Establishing a solid base for feedstuff production by the state or in collaboration with the private sector, wherever possible.
• Encourage investment in ground water.
• Reviving the irrigation systems in the great projects in order to increase water use efficiency.

4.1 Emergency Measures

Rapid Field Surveys

In order to quantify the magnitude of the damage, and to identify the most seriously effected areas, a rapid field survey with the participation of the Ministry of Agriculture and other relevant ministries should be immediately carried out. The result of a reliable, joint GOI and UN specialized agencies survey is crucial, if any appeal for funds is to be planned. In regard to the Agricultural sector, FAO propose's a rapid field survey in the Governorates of Salah Al-Din, Ninewah, Taameem, Diyala, Anbar and Basrah, The Qar, Muthana, Dohuk, Erbil and Suleimaniya. [proposed work plan in annex (1)].

A. Water availability:

• increase the supply of water to the Euphrates by releasing more water from the reservoirs, located in the upstream countries (Turkey, Syria). This requires political negotiations at the international level, which are not likely to be successful, unless they are backed by allies of these countries;

• under the 986 programme, about 4,000 pumps have been distributed. The capacity would be sufficient to irrigate 40,000 - 60,000 ha. Arrange contracts with owners of mobile pumps in irrigation areas without water, to supply water to farmers without pumps in the priority areas, thus increasing the availability of water at farm level and ensuring an income for the pump owner;

B. Rehabilitation of the infrastructure in the following priority areas:

• rehabilitate irrigation and drainage pumping stations, using the MOU pumps recently delivered under contracts 02-04/98. The total capacity of these pumps is about 170 m3/s, sufficient to irrigate 170,000 ha;

• transfer pump units and generator sets from areas with no water and from stations in non-priority areas to priority areas;

• it is highly unlikely that any infrastructure maintenance equipment such as excavators, shovels, trucks etc. ordered under MOU arrive in time. The only option for increasing the capacity in the machinery is to use private sector resources, by means of contracts.

• with little water in the Tigris Basin and no transfer of water possible from the Euphrates Basin, the maximum irrigable area for the summer season will not exceed 600,000-700,000 ha, equivalent to about 60% of the area, normally irrigated during summer.
• Unless quick action is taken to rehabilitate irrigation systems in the priority areas, there is no scope for increasing the irrigated area.
• With all possible interventions, the increase in irrigated area in the Euphrates basin could be 150,000 - 200,000 ha, at most.
• The intervention required to cope with the massive needs of the agricultural sector in general, and the consequences of the prevailing drought is of a large scale and therefore can not be possibly be met from the SCR 986 programme. Consequently possibilities of additional funding should be addressed.

We suggest that FAO and other agencies first attempt to attract financing for a programme for formulating policy and strategy, including issues such as decentralisation, involvement of the private sector, irrigation management transfer and cost recovery. This requires a number of awareness building workshops, where experience gained in other countries can be transferred.

Formulation and implementation of a sound water resources policy and strategy require a unified and coordinated approach. The partnership between FAO and UNDP can provide a well coordinated and cost effective support to GOI. In the irrigation sector, the support from the Water Resources Development and Management Service of the Land and Water Development Division (AGLW) of FAO which has carried out many such seminars, should be mobilized.

The Three Northern Governorates:

Proposed Emergency Measures

Awareness Campaign

• Conduct awareness campaigns in order to educate the people on effects of drought and to revive their coping mechanisms.

The Government of Iraq had in past drought periods generously supported the farming community in the three northern governorates by free distribution of certified wheat and barley seeds, fertilizers plus animal feed (barley). While the imposed sanctions do not permit the level of past interventions, at least a modest assistance may be requested from the GOI to include:

• Release of the wheat barn by-product (estimated at 10%of the tonnage) procured of the 13% account and milled in Mosul and Kirkuk Governorates. Each Governorate shall be responsible for the cost of the transportation;
• Free flow of subsidized fuel for generation of electricity for the poultry houses and irrigation diesel engine pumps;
• Extend the release of cereal (barley and wheat )feed supplements from their buffer stocks for livestock and poultry feed in the three northern governorates;
• Establish coordinated campaigns against animal diseases and release of vaccines for epidemic and endemic diseases for the transhumant livestock from the Mosul/Diyala governorates to Dohuk/Suleimaniyah governorates;
• For the purpose of drilling and developing deep wells in drought affected areas, allow free movement of drilling rigs, water tankers and air compressors (to be hired) from south and central governorates, in order to alleviate for the acute shortage of these essential machinery in the northern governorates,

In order to secure drinking water for both domestic and livestock purposes, rehabilitation of the existing sources is necessary.

• Organize rehabilitation campaign of targeted wells in order to provide drinking and supplementary irrigation water using the available UNSCR 986 Agricultural programme's as well as the private sector's equipment. Support pastorlist communities through transport of water in the remote unutilized grazing resources. Suggested areas and estimated number of the irrigation schemes needing rehabilitation are in annex 4 .

• Utilize locally available animal feed resources to be distributed during the forthcoming critical drought period, particularly in the highly drought affected areas. (annex 2 , shows estimated number of livestock at risk and their location)
• Minimize starvation of the livestock in areas where starvation risk is above 50% through the provision of supplementary concentrate and roughage feed.
• Carry out an intensive vaccination and other animal disease prevention measures, to arrest the spread of diseases due to the drought patterns of transhumance which is already observed.
• Provision of seed assistance to most drought affected small farmers.
• Support plant residential conservation activities.

• Provision of emergency generators is crucial for the contribution of the poultry projects and poultry houses. Requirements are shown in annex 3. .
• Support to the poultry farmers through distribution of concentrated feed

Water Resources

Focus on drilling a new set of deep wells in areas where ground water resources are sufficient. An experienced hydro-geologist would have to be in charge for drilling. He could be a local or one from the neighboring countries. This will allow greater flexibility, easier to organize and eventually be more economical.

Animal Feed

• Provision of forage cutting and chopping equipment to enable voluminous ferriage amelioration and transport in an attempt to increase animal feed availability and distribution.

• Importation of Voluminous ferriage (pallets, bricks) as well as concentrated feed should be considered:
• Water tankers for emergency purposes have to be organized through renting tractors from the private sector. It is relevant to mention that most of the large herders pocess water tankers.

• Application of proper crop rotation other than using one cereal crop. This requires the inclusion of legumes and fodder crops in the rotation.

Agencies should examine their budget and funds that can be used to combat the effects of drought should be submitted to the Committee (preparing and implementing drought strategy) to be incorporated in the planning for mitigating the effects of drought.

Agencies should consider medium and long term measures through UNSCR 986/95 resources, as well as the regular programmes, and other available funds.

UNOHCI/FAO interventions:

The intervention required to cope with the massive needs of the agricultural sector: combined with the effect of the prevailing drought conditions, is of a large scale which is far from being possible to be met from the resources of SCR 986 programme.

To forestall the reversal of the achievements so far secured under the agricultural sector of SCR 986, budget allocations from the DP-V- Second Tranche Allocation must allow flexibility in the procurement of the prime concern inputs and should not be limited to provision of the items already approved within the DP-V- Distribution Plan.

In this regard, projects proposed for funding under the DP-V Second Tranche Allocations should address the critical areas with wider coverage, which would result in significant positive impact. The projects aim is to arrest widespread, drastic and appalling crisis. The first four projects are funded from the agricultural sector allocations, while the allocation for the fifth project (food processing) will come from the nutrition sector (see Table below): -
 

4.3 Medium Term Intervention:

1. Improvement of all silos for storage of grain.
2. Establishing Early Warning System for food security.
3. Enhancement of supplementary irrigation projects.
4. Cultivating special drought resistant varieties of wheat.

Proposed measures (Emergency Measures)

1. Rapid Field Surveys

Objective: to determine the degree of damage and to identify the most effective areas for support.

Work Plan

Carry out a rapid field survey in the following Locations:
 

Salah Al-Din province : North Beage	2 Teams
Diyalah	1 Team
Ninewah	6 Teams
Dohuk	2 Teams
Erbil	3 Teams
Suleimaniya	6 Teams
Muthanna	2 Teams
Basrah	2 Teams
Thiqar	2 Teams
Anbar	3 Teams

Teams will undertake the following tasks:

• Rapid inventory of animal resource
• Evaluation of range condition
• Surveying the available drinking water
• Examine the crop situation
• Determine the emergency need
• Evaluate the irrigation situation including water availability and problems related to the irrigation systems.

The team will include staff from the localities and representative of different relevant departments. Team will be headed or under the supervision of one the Ministry of Agriculture staff, as well as representative from UN agencies if it is possible..

The exercise should not take more than ten days.

Each team will cover a defined areas and each of its member will be charged with a defined task.

The team should meet in the evening and produce a daily report. The daily report will be compiled by the team and a consolidated report will be produced within a maximum of two days.

Requirements

Central and South

Transport at least 30, 4 wheel drive

Vehicle need to hired

Allowance 7 X 10 X 20

Food allowance

Stationary

Miscellaneous

** Area B: 50% risk of livestock starvation (Between Low Plain and Mountainous)

*** Area C: No risk of livestock starvation (Mountainous Areas)

**** Estimated livestock in the region (1,770,746 sheep, 1,352,292 goats and 409,176 cattle)

Transhumance livestock present 500,000 influx rate at 20,000-50,000 per day