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[casi] UN - World Bank $ Estimates (Context and Details)

On 2 October, the New York Times reported "A team of economic specialists
led by the World Bank and the United Nations has determined that Iraq needs
$36 billion for reconstruction over the next four years. This would be in
addition to a separate assessment by the American-led occupation of $19
billion for a different set of needs in Iraq over the same period, diplomats
and economists said Wednesday.

The latest calculation brings to $55 billion the amount that experts say
Iraq needs to rebuild everything from health care to infrastructure to
agriculture and the training of police officers and other security
personnel, the officials said." (1)

According to a UN contact:

The UN/World Bank (WB)-led assessment omitted security as a category.
Security is solely the Occupying Powers' (OP) responsibility.  The OPs did
their own assessment, opting not to coordinate at all with the UN.  Needs
assessment-wise, the OPs shared information in only one area: the budget.
The Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) told the UN/WB-led teams the
activities for which the CPA states it will ensure funding.  The UN/WB-led
report includes these activities and cost statements as tables.  By
estimating overall 2004-2007 needs (minus security) cost, and including CPA
stated funding, the UN/WB-led report aims to in part illustrate the total
dollar shortfall between the UN/WB-led and CPA estimates, and avoid

The contact also said the actual UN/WB-led report is supposed to be
embargoed until 10 October, in advance of the 23-24 October donors'
conference in Madrid.

For another summary of the UN/WB-led report, see UN News Service, "Iraq
needs $36 billion for reconstruction for 2004-2007 - UN assessment", 3
October 2003,

1. Steven R. Weisman, "Assessments Say Iraq Needs $55 Billion for
Rebuilding", New York Times, 2 October 2003,

Nathaniel Hurd
Consultant on Iraq policy
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Fax: 718-504-4224
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