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1) US Poll of four Iraqi cities published 11 September 2003 2) UK poll of Baghdad published in the Spectator/Channel 4 published 16 July 2003 Overview: Occupation '76 per cent want them to stay for the time being – with a majority, 56 per cent, wanting them to remain for at least 12 months.' YouGov poll, Baghdad, July. 'Asked whether they would like to see the U.S. and British forces leave Iraq in six months, one year or two years or more, 31.6 percent wanted them out in six months while 34 percent favored one year and 25 percent said it should be in two or more years.' Zogby poll, Basra, Kirkuk, Mosul, Ramadi, August. My interpretation: people are so frightened by the social chaos and the prospect of even worse conditions that even though they do not support the idea of the occupation, they want some form of foreign intervention for the time being. Milan Rai JNV 1)Zogby Iraq poll Chicago Tribune article below. Good summary in the FT that day also, but that is no longer accessible on the web. If you have $99 spare and want to buy the whole poll, it's at Zogby International: <http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=734> Most Iraqis see brighter future, poll says <http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi- 0309110312sep11,1,140165.story> By Lisa Anderson Chicago Tribune national correspondent September 11, 2003 NEW YORK -- The majority of Iraqis believe that they and their country will be in better condition five years from now, but half of them think the U.S. will do them more harm than good, according to a rare public opinion poll of Iraqis released Wednesday. The poll, done by Zogby International for The American Enterprise magazine, also asked a sampling of 600 Iraqi adults their opinions about democracy, the presence of American and British forces on their soil, terrorist leader Osama bin Laden and whether they favored creation of an Islamic state in Iraq. The survey was conducted Aug. 3-19 in four major cities: Basra in the south; Mosul in the north; Kirkuk in the northern Kurdish region, and Ramadi in the so-called Sunni Triangle in central Iraq. Zogby said the survey used a random representative sample that included Iraq's major ethnic groups--Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and Assyrians--and its religious groups, Shiite and Sunni Muslims and Christians. Interviews were done in public places in neighborhoods of various social levels. Zogby said the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. A majority of Iraqis surveyed, 67 percent, said it will be harder to rebuild their country politically than economically. Many are not sure that democracy is the most desirable form for their government. Only 38.6 percent of the Iraqis polled said democracy could work well in their country, while 50.8 percent agreed that "Democracy is a Western way of doing things and it will not work here." When asked whether they would like their new government to be modeled on that of Syria, Saudi Arabia, the U.S., Iran or Egypt, the largest number, 23.3 percent, chose the U.S. Saudi Arabia took second place with 17.4 percent, followed by Syria at 11.9 percent, Egypt at 7.1 percent and Iran at 3.1 percent. Iraqis might not be highly enthusiastic about democracy, but neither are they eager to form an Islamic government. Less than a third of those polled, 32.9 percent, said they favored an Islamic government, while 60.3 percent said they wanted a government that "let everyone practice their own religion." One reason for this result may be that Iraqi society, according to the survey, is more secular than many Westerners might imagine. When asked how many times they had attended Friday prayers in the past four weeks, 42.6 percent of those surveyed said "never." Less than a third, 31.7 percent, said they had participated four times. Shiite Muslims made up 57.5 percent of the sample, Sunnis 36.2 percent and Christians 6 percent. Iraqis expressed mixed feelings about the presence of U.S. and British troops. Asked whether they would like to see the U.S. and British forces leave Iraq in six months, one year or two years or more, 31.6 percent wanted them out in six months while 34 percent favored one year and 25 percent said it should be in two or more years. Less than a third of Iraqis wanted the U.S. and Britain to "make sure a fair government is set up"; 58.5 percent believe Iraqis should be allowed to "work this out themselves." Only 35.3 percent believe the U.S. will help Iraq over the next five years; 50 percent thought the U.S. would hurt the country. Half said the UN would help Iraq, while a quarter thought it wouldn't have any influence. Asked their opinion of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, 35.8 percent viewed him favorably, 46.7 percent unfavorably. 2) YouGov poll for Spectator/Channel 4 News published 16 July 2003 http://www.channel4.com/news/2003/07/week_3/16_poll.html What Iraqis think Published: 16-Jul-2003 By: Peter Kellner Baghdad is on a knife-edge. Three in four of its residents say the city is now more dangerous than when Saddam Hussein was in power. View the survey online here <http://www.channel4.com/news/2003/07/week_3/images/iraq_survey.html> Two in three fear being attacked in the street. Most think we went to war to grab Iraq’s oil. Yet despite these deep concerns, only a minority oppose the Americans and British invasion, and as few as one in eight want the invaders to leave the country straight away. Channel 4 News and the Spectator have commissioned the first comprehensive independent survey in Baghdad since the conflict. Among the findings of the YouGov poll was that Iraqis want the occupying troops to restore normality quickly and then hand the country back to the Iraqis. In effect the people of Baghdad are telling the Americans: “You say you came to make our lives better. You need to prove you can – and fast.” Altogether YouGov questioned 798 people last week in all parts of Baghdad. We cannot pretend our figures are perfect. There are no reliable demographic statistics with which to compare our data. However, we sought to interview broadly equal numbers of men and women in all parts of the city, to obtain a wide spread of age groups, religious affiliations and social backgrounds. In general, we found relatively little difference in the views of different groups. We believe that, as far as is feasible in the circumstances, we have captured the mood of Baghdad at a crucial time in its history - and, indeed, ours. We started by asking the basic question: was the war against Saddam’s regime right or wrong? 50 per cent said “right”, while just 27 per cent said “wrong”. However 23 per cent declined to offer an opinion. This does not appear to be reticence. Respondents generally were keen to give their views, and on most questions there were few “don’t knows”. It looks as if for a significant minority of the people of Baghdad, the jury is still out on whether the war was worthwhile. If most of these people can be won over, then – and only then – will it be possible for the Americans to claim that a large majority of the people of Iraq’s capital are on their side. What must the Americans (and British, for that matter) do? One urgent need is to convince Iraqis that their cause was just. We offered a list of five possible reasons for the war, and asked people to identify the most important. The top two by a mile were “to secure oil supplies” (47 per cent) and “to help Israel” (41 per cent). Just 23 per cent said our aim was “to liberate the people of Iraq”, while 7 per cent said “to protect Kuwait”. The formal reason for going to war, “to find and destroy weapons of mass destruction” came last. Just 6 per cent think this was America’s and Britain’s main motive. What, though, do the people of Baghdad think of the Americans today, three months after they occupied their city? More people feel friendly (26 per cent) than hostile (18 per cent), but fully 50 per cent feel “neither friendly nor hostile”. GIs might feel relieved to learn that only 9 per cent of Baghdadians say they are “very hostile” – but this small percentage amounts to around 250,000 adults. It would take only a tiny proportion of these to be armed, angry and willing to act to make life a continuing misery for the occupation forces. We pressed the issue a little further: “If you HAD to choose, would you rather live under Saddam or the Americans?” The good news is that very few want Saddam back – just 7 per cent. The bad news is that fewer than one in three (29 per cent) positively favour the Americans. As many as 46 per cent express no preference. There is plainly a lot of work to be done to convert relief that Saddam has gone into support for America’s strategy to build a new Iraq. One reason is that just 32 per cent say that everyday life is better now than it was a year ago. Twice as many say it is either just as bad (16 per cent) or actually worse (47 per cent). Indeed, one respondent in four told YouGov it is much worse. This bleak mood even extends to many of those who say we were right to go to war. Just half say life is now better, while one in three of the pro-war camp say life is now worse. Asked to list the biggest day-to-day problems “affecting you personally”, an unsurprising 80 per cent mention power cuts and the lack of reliable electricity supplies. More alarming is the 67 per cent who fear the danger of being attacked in the streets – a fear that afflict men and women in equal numbers. 50 per cent also fear being attacked at home or at work. Other widespread concerns include the lack of clean water, doctors and medical supplies. No wonder that fully 75 per cent say Iraq is more dangerous than it was before the war (including 54 per cent who say it is “much more dangerous”). Just 14 per cent reckon the country is safer. Yet there are signs of cautious optimism, especially about the long term. By almost three-to-one, Baghdadians expect life in one year’s time to be better (43 per cent) rather than worse (16 per cent) in one year’s time than it was before the war. Looking five years ahead, optimists outnumber pessimists by five to one (54-11 per cent). By then, most people hope that the occupation will be over; but, despite the criticisms, fears and acute day-to-day problems, only 13 per cent want the Americans and British troops to leave immediately. As many as 76 per cent want them to stay for the time being – with a majority, 56 per cent, wanting them to remain for at least 12 months. That does not mean YouGov’s respondents want to put off the day when the Iraqis once more rule themselves. As many as 71 per cent want power handed over within 12 months. But what kind of government do the Iraqis want? Our poll offered six choices. The most popular is western-style democracy with competing parties. This was chosen by 36 per cent. But 50 per cent opted for one of the five variants of Islamic, presidential or single-party rule. This suggests that the battle to make Baghdad a less fearful city where normal life can resume is vital not just for the immediate future but for the longer-term task of rebuilding civil society. Without clean water, reliable electricity and safe streets, democracy is unlikely to be achieved – or even wanted. Peter Kellner is Chairman of YouGov -- The Unmissable Grassroots Anti-War Conference With US Grassroots Network Speaker 26-28 September 2003 Make the Most of Your Weekend Conway Hall, Red Lion Square, London www.j-n-v.org _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss To contact the list manager, email casi-discuss-admin@lists.casi.org.uk All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk