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[casi] I have a hammer so it must be a nail?

The transition last week in the story of who is attacking US troops is
curious. Given the nature of the Bush administration I can hardly believe
that Gen. Abizaid alone is responsible for saying that the attacks are
not random and disorganized but a guerilla war. Rumsfeld had been saying,
no it's not guerrillas, but just a few scattered Ba'ath loyalists and
criminals. Apparently to try to give a minimized impression of trouble to
come? But then, what is the difference just who is killing the troops?

Two differences are what to do about it, and what the prognosis is. If
the attacks are random by disorganized, disgruntled Iraqis, then the
"solution" is to improve conditions -- or just keep on with the current
policies hoping it will settle down as conditions improve and security is
increased by Iraqi police. But if it's an organized guerilla resistance,
then the "logical" response would be to attack the enemy -- use the
military hammer.

There might be some hope of knocking out guerrillas, but if the attacks
are supported by a general rebelliousness, and they are increasing, then
there are only two logical responses: step up reconstruction and the
election process, or get out of Iraq straight away. With either response,
the US would fail to meet it's goals of controlling Iraq -- and it would
be either very expensive, or humiliating to boot. Also, without a clear
enemy to defeat except the whole Iraqi people themselves, there is no end
in sight until withdrawal of US forces.

Given the time spent in the swamp so far with the alligators refusing to
be tamed, and given the growing dissatisfaction back home, It would seem
that a guerilla war is looking like the better case: my guess is that
that is the reason for the shift in the story the administration is
telling. The problem *must* just a nail sticking up from the floor since
the only thing the US has in it's toolbox is a hammer.

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