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The transition last week in the story of who is attacking US troops is curious. Given the nature of the Bush administration I can hardly believe that Gen. Abizaid alone is responsible for saying that the attacks are not random and disorganized but a guerilla war. Rumsfeld had been saying, no it's not guerrillas, but just a few scattered Ba'ath loyalists and criminals. Apparently to try to give a minimized impression of trouble to come? But then, what is the difference just who is killing the troops? Two differences are what to do about it, and what the prognosis is. If the attacks are random by disorganized, disgruntled Iraqis, then the "solution" is to improve conditions -- or just keep on with the current policies hoping it will settle down as conditions improve and security is increased by Iraqi police. But if it's an organized guerilla resistance, then the "logical" response would be to attack the enemy -- use the military hammer. There might be some hope of knocking out guerrillas, but if the attacks are supported by a general rebelliousness, and they are increasing, then there are only two logical responses: step up reconstruction and the election process, or get out of Iraq straight away. With either response, the US would fail to meet it's goals of controlling Iraq -- and it would be either very expensive, or humiliating to boot. Also, without a clear enemy to defeat except the whole Iraqi people themselves, there is no end in sight until withdrawal of US forces. Given the time spent in the swamp so far with the alligators refusing to be tamed, and given the growing dissatisfaction back home, It would seem that a guerilla war is looking like the better case: my guess is that that is the reason for the shift in the story the administration is telling. The problem *must* just a nail sticking up from the floor since the only thing the US has in it's toolbox is a hammer. ________________________________________________________________ The best thing to hit the internet in years - Juno SpeedBand! Surf the web up to FIVE TIMES FASTER! Only $14.95/ month - visit www.juno.com to sign up today! _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss To contact the list manager, email firstname.lastname@example.org All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk