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Re: [casi] War is over? (and Peace?)




Dear Peter and list,


I am afraid Peter's analysis of the "rejoicing" does
not encompass the whole picture, and needs some
explanation.

There is no doubt that there is an enormous number of
people in Iraq and outside it who have reason to
rejoice at the fall of Saddam. And I agree that the
fact that most of the opposition groups are US funded,
this has nothing to do with scenes of rejoicing.

But let us be clear about things.

I lived over thirty years in Iraq. During that time I
saw people applauding the Monarchy, then Qassim's
regime, then the first Ba'thist regime, then the Arif
regimes, and after that the Ba'thists again. Only last
week, there were crowds and demonstrations in Baghdad
in support of Saddam. I am talking about the same
people of Iraq who kept switching sides and hoping
that the new regime would be better than the one
before. But they never learn. And I am sure that the
same people who singing Saddam's praise last week,
were rejoicing yesterday in Baghdad and elsewhere, and
would very soon have reason to rejoice at the demise
of Saddam's successor (whoever he is..) and wish the
Saddam would have stayed..
This may sound strange, but there is an Iraqi saying
which goes like "you will only know my worth after
trying someone else..." And that has been tested and
proven by Iraqis throughout their history... They
welcome the victor, then curse him and turn against
him..

The "jubilant" crowds at Saddam City were not
expressing a specific political thought, in as much as
they were jubilant at the chance to loot... Sorry to
say that, but one has to understand the structure of
Saddam City and how Bagdadis view them to understand
that..

It is not true that many of the inhabitants of Saddam
City "have been rooted out of their homes and
ancestral ways of life by Iraqi government policy".
In the 1950s, during the time of the Pro-British
Monarchy, Iraq began suffering from a budget deficit
and a recession. The oil was controlled by foreign
companies and Iraq received only a small income from
it. Thus agriculture, under the feudal system, began
suffering. Many of those in farming societies began
migrating to Baghdad to look for work. Baghdad had an
earth dam built by the Ottoman Wali on the Eastern
side of Baghdad to stop the flooding of the Euphrates.
Those migrant workers built mud shacks behind the dam
and settled there, working in menial jobs in the city
of Baghdad... They came from Amara with their buffalos
and from Nasiriya.

After the overthrow of the Monarchy, general Qassim
wanted to win the hearts of those people. But instead
of providing them with the opportunity to return to
their lands as farmers, he built them houses in the
same area, thus creating the ghetto we now see. This
created social problems as well as security problems
for the consecutive governments of Iraq.
So in reality, those people came almost all by their
own will, and were not "uprooted" by any government..

The inhabitants of that city (first called Thawra
"revolution") are almost fully Shi'a Muslims.
Illiteracy rate is high, and the city has been a
dangerous area for outsiders to venture into,
especially at night. Since the sanctions, it has
become a harbor for army deserters, wanted criminals
and illegal trade in stolen medicines and stuff. This
is not an exaggeration, and I am an eye-witness to
this.. Cars that pass though the city are stoned, and
the scenes remind one of those we see of dangerous
areas in the US in Hollywood films!!

The most important fact is that a large number of the
police, security and army in Baghdad come from this
city. They are the ones on whom Saddam's regime
depended for keeping law and order... They also make
the largest constituent of the Ba'th party in
Baghdad.. That they turned against the regime now is
not new. They had done it before. The same elements
served before that Arif's regimes, and would certainly
serve the new regime...

Since the late 1950s, when the people of Al-Thawra
sided with the Communists inside Qassim's regime,
Baghdadis have been afraid of the scenario, where
Al-Thawra inhabitants would march westwards and start
looting. Most scared have been the Sunni Muslims of
Baghdad.

So I think Peter is putting too much emphasis on a
political analysis of a situation that to me is no
more than someone who saw a chance of grabbing
something for himself and did it... The act was NOT
political; rather related to greed and opportunism.
This is explained by the fact that the UN offices and
the German Embassy were also looted: places that had
nothing to do with the regime or its instruments..

Peter asks "why should I automatically assume that
just because George and Tony chose to ally with the
Northern Alliance for their own reasons the Northern
Alliance are therefore Bad?"

It is not an assumption that is based on Black and
White division. The conclusions or assumptions are
based on the fact that the NA in Afghanistan is made
up of War lords who were instrumental in destroying
Afghanistan until the Taleban came and took over. The
people of Afghanistan viewed Taleban as "liberators",
especially after they succeeded in cutting down crime
rate and the drug industry. The US/UK allied
themselves with "war criminals" to achieve what they
wanted.

The same thing applies to the Iraqi opposition outside
Iraq. It is made of ex-Ba'th party members who were
part of Saddam's machine and who helped him get where
he is (was!). Then there are army officers who only
turned against him in the mid-to-late 1990s. And the
Kurds who keep changing their alliances east and west,
with Saddam now against him tomorrow, killing among
themselves more than Saddam killed of them.. And then
there is the communists who changed allegiance from
the Soviet Union to the US... And there is the
Communist-turned-Islamist, which is a new feature in
Iraq. And of course the Iran-sponsored Shi'i Muslim
parties.. So with a cocktail like that, it seems
doubtful that Iraq will be better off in the coming
future. I would give the new regime one year maximum,
before we start reading about accusations of human
rights violations and opposition from within the same
groups who rejoiced at the "liberation" by the US...
One has to be an Iraqi to understand Iraq. It is a
very complicated society and I realize why many find
it difficult to understand..
I hope I have helped.


Best
Hassan



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