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News, 19-26/02/03 (6) INSIDE IRAQ * Britons are urged to quit Iraq as war looms * Iraq minister raps Blair for misinformation * 10 million land mines lie in wait inside Iraq * What is the US really up against? * Prominent Iraqis appeal for democracy * Arslan meets with Saddam to show Lebanese support * Saddam Hussein Rejects Going Into Exile WILY KURDS * Norway Expels Islamic Extremist Leader * KDP arrests agents of Iraq regime * Move to freeze assets of Islamic group * Iraqi Kurd leader says strong moral case for war * Feud Between Kurdish Clans Creates Its Own Warion * U.S. Slow To Sanction Terror Group INSIDE IRAQ http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=379895 * BRITONS ARE URGED TO QUIT IRAQ AS WAR LOOMS by Kim Sengupta The Independent, 20th February British nationals were warned yesterday to leave Iraq immediately, or risk becoming "human shields". The warning was issued as the last major wave of troops was dispatched from Britain to the Gulf for a possible war. The deployment, from RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire, comprised more than a thousand paratroopers, infantry and support troops from 16 Air Assault Brigade. Military sources pointed towards mid-March as the most likely time for a conflict. With diplomatic manoeuvring accompanying the military build-up, the Foreign Office also urged Britons not to travel to Kuwait or Israel unless absolutely necessary, and to leave the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The warning may be extended to other countries in the region depending on changing circumstances. Defence sources say a campaign against Iraq is likely to start with fierce aerial bombardment lasting "just a few days" followed by a massive armoured sweep towards Baghdad. American and British special forces are believed to be entering the region, including elements moving into Kurdistan. On its travel advice website, the Foreign Office cited the "increasing regional tension" and the risk of terrorism as the reason for its advice. It said "If you are considering going to Iraq you should be aware that British nationals were used as hostages during the 1990-91 crisis by the Iraqi regime, being held where their safety was at most risk. You should also be aware that there is no British diplomatic presence in Iraq." It is estimated there are between 150 and 250 Britons in the country, including journalists as well as volunteer "human shields" anti-war protesters. The latest troop deployment will take the British military presence in the region to about 19,000 9,000 soldiers, 8,000 sailors and Royal Marines and 2,000 from the RAF. But the bulk of the main British ground force, the 7th Armoured Brigade ("Desert Rats"), has yet to leave its bases in Germany. http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=77984 * IRAQ MINISTER RAPS BLAIR FOR MISINFORMATION by Neena Gopal Gulf News, 20th February Baghdad: In a spirited rebuttal of British Prime Minister Tony Blair's critique of Iraq being better off before Saddam Hussein became president of the country, Iraq's trade minister Mohammed Mahdi Saleh produced documentary evidence to prove that Iraq's revenues had in fact jumped by 2807 per cent from its pre-revolution era. "I would like Tony Blair to read his history," he said, "the UN resolutions imposed by his country and that of the US is responsible for the malnutrition in our country." He also blamed the US and UK for the contaminated water supply in the country after the water and sewerage systems were bombed by coalition forces in '91. Saleh said that until sanctions were imposed Iraq's population enjoyed a high standard of living from its oil revenues, that were further enhanced by the Iraqi President's decision in 1972 to nationalise oil. Saleh indicated that despite the embargo and the attempts by the US and Britain to destroy Iraq's resources, they were far better placed to face an attack than they were in 1991. "We have distributed six months of food stocks to our people, and we have made alternative arrangements if they bomb our water and power supply again. "We cannot protect the water treatment plants because they are so big, but we are distributing water purification tablets and so on, asking people to get small generators for their homes and to use small wells." The food was distributed to all the people of Iraq, "regardless of whether they are from Kurdistan or from elsewhere in Iraq, every Iraqi has a right to an equal amount of food," he said. He also vowed that even if Iraq was attacked, the government would ensure that food would continue to be distributed, despite reports from the west to the contrary. Rejecting the need for UN humanitarian agencies to set up refugee shelters, he said Iraq knew what needed to be done. "We took care of it in '91, we can do so again, there is no worry about this." He said the average for Iraq's oil revenues for 1931-50 was $43.45m, which rose to $306m from 1958-67, which further jumped to $8590m post 1968 July revolution until sanctions were imposed in '91.. He said Iraq had imported goods and services worth a whopping $20b to benefit a population in 1989 of 18 million Iraqis, which in 2003 stood at 26 million. He clearly pointed to sanctions imposed by Britain and the US after August '90's UN resolution 661 as responsible for the downturn, after a complete embargo on all oil and other exports and imports of food and medicine was imposed. This was relaxed later he said through UN Resolution 687 in April 91 to allow the purchase of limited amounts of food and medicine. "Iraq used $500m of its $4b in frozen assets to purchase food and medicine " until another resolution banned it from using its frozen assets to buy food and medicine. "These assets could only be used to finance UNSCOM operations," he said, adding " uptil now neither the US administration nor the British government have allowed the release of the Iraq's four billion dollars frozen at their banks." "Had Iraq been allowed to use its frozen assets and had the US administration not put pressure on the UN to block funds, many lives would have been saved, and suffering averted." Saleh slammed the oil for food programme as "political rather than humanitarian," that instead of improving the welfare of Iraqis had led to a rise in infant mortality. "Nearly 1.7 m children and adults have died. Upto 1990, FAO certified Iraq had one of the highest per capita food availability and WHO certified that 90 per cent of the population had access to clean drinking water. http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/world/5224228.htm * 10 MILLION LAND MINES LIE IN WAIT INSIDE IRAQ by Juan O. Tamayo The State, from Miami Herald, 20th February CAMP 6, Kuwait -- U.S. Army Sgt. Dale Vanormer spotted it first, a green, tennis-sized ball on the desert sand: It was an anti-personnel bomblet left over from the Persian Gulf War in 1991, still lethal enough to blow off a leg. Munitions like it have killed 1,700 civilians in Kuwait since the war ended, despite a massive and continuing campaign that has removed one million land mines and 100 tons of unexploded ordnance from the Kuwaiti desert since the war. U.S. troops will face the same threat if they invade Iraq: 10 million land mines sown by Saddam Hussein along his borders, plus unexploded ordnance, or UXO, from 1991 and from the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. "Kuwait de-mined heavily and people still find them to this day. Iraq never de-mined, so that must be a very dangerous UXO environment," said an army colonel from an Asian country who worked on Kuwait's de-mining campaign. He spoke on the condition that he not be identified. U.S. military officers here awaiting President Bush's decision on an attack against Iraq say they are deeply concerned about land-mine and UXO risks. "We know Saddam will put some mines out there to try to block our way, and we're trained to deal with those threats," said Vanormer, 32, a Pittsburgh native and combat engineer with the 3rd Infantry Division. But the gulf war showed that land mines and UXOs can slow down attacks, divert units from assigned targets and cause friendly casualties, especially among rear-guard units that lack armored vehicles. One 1st Cavalry Division support unit took five days to move 20 miles into Kuwait because its route was "saturated" with dud U.S. bomblets that were fired at Iraqi troops, according to a September report by Congress' General Accounting Office on the use of land mines during the Gulf War. Although the Pentagon reported that 177 of the 1,364 American casualties in that war were caused by Iraqi and "unknown" mines and UXOs -- not U.S.-made -- the GAO said some casualties probably were caused by American munitions. U.S. troops deployed 117,634 land mines in Iraq and Kuwait in 1991, "the largest U.S. combat use of its newer aircraft and artillery-delivered . . . self-destructing mines" in history, the GAO reported. These so-called smart mines are supposed to self-destruct within four hours, 48 hours or 15 days of deployment, and their batteries are designed to die in 120 days. The United States didn't deploy "dumb" mines in Kuwait or Iraq, the GAO said. U.S. warplanes also dropped thousands of tons of bombs around Iraq, many of them canisters with up to 250 bomblets designed to spread in the air and explode on the ground. Despite what the Asian colonel called "the most intensive, extensive and expensive de mining campaign in history" to clean up unexploded munitions, they have killed 1,700 people and injured another 2,300 since the Gulf War ended. Three youths joy-riding in the western desert last month were injured when their four-wheel drive vehicle set off an unidentified UXO, the Kuwait Times newspaper reported. One U.S. soldier was injured and his 70-ton Abrams tank lost three pieces of tread when it detonated an apparent anti-tank mine on desert maneuvers in October, Vanormer said. The U.S. bomblet that he spotted near Camp 6, a U.S. urban warfare training base 10 miles from the Iraqi border, was marked and safely detonated later by an explosives and ordnance-removal unit. In contrast to Kuwait, Iraq isn't known to have carried out any methodical demining operations since 1991. Iraq's military actually has planted 10 million mines to protect itself, according to State Department reports. They are mainly along Iraq's northern border with rebel Kurdish areas and its southern and eastern borders with Kuwait and Iran. Half of Iraq's agricultural land is reported to be unusable now because of the mines and UXOs, and the Iraqi News Agency carries occasional reports on children killed by UXOs, especially in areas of southeastern Iraq that saw pitched fighting during the war against Iran. http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EB21Ak04.html * WHAT IS THE US REALLY UP AGAINST? by Pepe Escobar Asia Times, 21st February CAIRO - Whatever the spin, whatever the rhetoric about "liberation", whatever the wishful thinking of a Japan rising in the Middle East, whatever the battle plan one subscribes to, this will be a war essentially against the Iraqi people. It won't be a war in the first place. It will be a one-sided massacre. Iraq has no air force. Iraq has no navy. Iraq has no satellite network to coordinate military action. But Iraqi Trade Minister Mohammed Mahdi Saleh is the latest in a flurry of regime officials to swear that the country is preparing as if war could happen tomorrow. Let's try to find out how. In Iraq, the Ba'ath Party controls the army and the clans control the Ba'ath. Iraqi historian and sociologist Faleh Jaber, a researcher at the University of London, notes that in the 1960s the Iraqi armed forces consisted of a regular army plus the Republican Guard. When the Ba'ath Party regained power in 1968, it upgraded the Republican Guard: the army still had the responsibility to defend the country, but the guard's responsibility became to defend the regime. When Saddam Hussein took power in 1979, there was not a single army official in the Revolutionary Command Council. Another Iraqi historian, Majid Khuduri, says that Ba'ath was the first regime to subordinate the army to civil authority. The young Saddam Hussein, heavily influenced by his maternal uncle, was a big fan of Adolf Hitler's system. Then he became a huge fan of Josef Stalin. Jaber says that Saddam's system follows these influences, but with original features: "Like the German model, the Ba'ath system in Iraq has four supporting bases: a totalitarian ideology, a single party, control of the economy [so-called socialist], and control of the media and the army." Ilios Yannakakis, a Greek historian based in Paris and a Middle East specialist, arguably has the best definition of the Ba'ath Party: "The social and socialist branch of fascism." Unlike the Nazi model, the Ba'ath model is all about tribes and clans supporting the state. Since the early years it has been a sort of state tribalism, limited to the ruling elite's tribe, the Albu Nasir. The core of this tribe is the very important al-Beijat clan. The fact that Iraq literally floats over a sea of oil enabled the Ba'ath Party initially to invest heavily in public services and many forms of social protection. Jamal Salman, professor of economics at the University of Baghdad, confirmed to this correspondent last year that the Iraqi middle class became prosperous in the 1970s not because of Western-style capitalism, but thanks to state contracts and jobs. In the 1970s, tribal groups ruled: what Jaber calls "class-clan" controls of the party, the army, the bureaucracy and business. Ba'ath operates a complex balancing act as it applies its recipe of merging army control with tribal solidarity. It describes itself as an Arab socialist party - and that is something certainly at odds with tribal solidarity. Many surviving victims of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war also confirmed to this correspondent how the social fabric of the country was destroyed because of that disastrous conflict. The state lost control over many important tribes. Iraq was left with a US$50 billion debt. At the end of the 1980s, Iraq had a million-strong army. For the war generation, it was impossible to go back to the good life of the 1970s. Jaber is clear: the invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990, happened as an attempt to re-establish internal stability. But Iraq has been mired in a logic of war for too long. The defeat in the Gulf War - which is still known inside Iraq as the "Mother of all Battles" - caused a profound structural adjustment. The state was terribly weakened - as well as the security services. The army was reduced to a third of its original size. There were rebellions in Kurdistan and in the Shi'ite south. The United States - illegally, without United Nations approval - imposed no-fly zones. Professor Salman in Baghdad stresses some of the terrible consequences of two totally useless wars: the Iraqi economy, based on oil wealth, collapsed; market forces began to emerge; and the middle class - a very important base for the Ba'ath Party - was smashed by hyperinflation. Jaber says that Saddam's regime managed to survive the 1990s by meticulously applying a five-point strategy: imposition of order in the main tribe; reorganization of the army; co option of tribes around the country so that they could replace party organizations; more ammunition to the ideological arsenal; and new forms of economic control. State tribalism at the top used to be based on an alliance of Sunni clans around the very important al-Beijat clan. The al-Beijat clan has 10 branches. The center of power was changing among all 10, so seven of them were thoroughly smashed. The predominant clan became the Albu-Ghafur, Saddam's sub-clan. The al-Majid clan was also in the ascendancy in the 1990s. Key members such as Hussein Kamel and Saddam Kamel - both married to daughters of Saddam - and Ali Hasan Al-Majid controlled the arms industry, the Jihaz al Khas (Special Services) and the Defense Ministry. At the same time, Saddam's sons, Udai and Qusai, were also in the ascendancy. A conflict was inevitable. Hussein and Saddam Kamel went into exile in Jordan. But then, foolishly, they returned to Baghdad and Saddam ordered them to be shot along with their families. In the late 1990s, Saddam finally cemented his power based on his sub-clan, the Albu Ghafur, and he chose Qusai to be his successor. A Republican Guard talking to Asia Times Online last year confirmed that this caused a tremendous rift between Saddam and his wife. They were said not to have been sleeping in the same bed, or room for that matter, for years. Udai, Mama's favorite, was a playboy. But Qusai was the brainy one. Saddam ordered Qusai to reorganize the intelligence services and internal security. He was named supervisor of the "Army of the Mother of All Battles" - which later became the Republican Army. Since 2000 he has been interim president and in 2001 he was given regional control of the Ba'ath Party. The two strongmen of the regime are now Qusai and Kamal Mustapha, a paternal cousin of Saddam who controls the Republican Guard, the de facto praetorian guards of the regime. It's all in the family: Kamal's brother, Jamal, is married to Saddam's youngest daughter. In fact, Iraq is now run by a triumvirate: Father (Saddam), Son (Qusai) and Holy Ghost (Kamal Mustapha). And it's still all about state tribalism, plus social tribalism, but now combined with Iraqi patriotism - thus the frequent references to the glorious history of Mesopotamia - and of course Arab patriotism. As can easily be attested in Basra in the south of the country, Saudi Wahhabism has infiltrated the country, but it has been tolerated by the security services because it functions as a counterpower to militant Shi'ites. But the ultimate tool of social control in the regime is in fact a contribution of the international community: sanctions and the "oil for food" program, or UN Resolution 986, adopted by Iraq in May 1996. People receive their meager state rations through certificates. Suspected dissidents, of course, never see such certificates. This is what Jaber calls the "politics of famine". As to the upper middle class, it continues to support the regime because of market deregulation. These are the smugglers who can be seen in Baghdad driving posh German cars with tinted windows, eating gourmet pizza in flash cafes and throwing parties in million-dollar houses next to Saddam's main presidential palace, near Saddam Tower. So the regime survives thanks to a mix of tribalism, nationalism, patriotism and Sunnism. As many as 80 percent of senior army officers are related to Saddam's Albu-Ghafour sub-clan. So it is a cohesive army, at least as far as the Republican Guards are concerned. The Iraqi army today has seen no improvement since 1990, except for air defense systems - which have been the targets of relentless strikes by US and British planes for months now. But the reduced military budget served a purpose: the regime was able to concentrate on reinforcing clan alliances. Today the Iraqi armed forces have four divisions: as many as eight regular regiments of the Republican Guard; another division from the Republican Guard; the regular army (four armored, three mechanized and five infantry regiments); and an array of tribal militias specialized in smashing civil rebellion. These militias will be key in the event of urban warfare once the US bombing starts. This will be an extremely political war. Washington's obsession is regime change. So the main prize is Baghdad. Republican Guards will not chicken out, and there will be no coup d'etat: as we have seen, a big, extended family's survival is at stake. An entire division of the army - as many as four regiments - would be necessary for a coup, and with essential input from the president's own sub-clan. Out of the question. This means full-scale invasion and occupation of Iraq is inevitable. The regime fights two huge imponderables. Its own structure by definition is extremely vulnerable. And absolutely nobody, inside or outside Iraq, can estimate how substantial is the gap between the official, nationalist, patriotic rhetoric and the feelings of the Iraqi population. There are wild rumors in Baghdad that Saddam is secretly negotiating oil for his survival. For many Iraqis, and for quite some time now, Saddam is not a Saladin fighting against American imperialism: he remains an American agent. And Americans are widely perceived not as "liberators" but as an occupation force. There's intense speculation that the regime will eventually fall, but what will be the price to pay? The regime is taking no chances, and it has adopted a variety of tactics. The Ba'ath propaganda machine is reinforcing the notion that all members of the ruling elite face death, so there's only one way out: to fight for survival no matter what. The government is also playing the religious card by persuading Shi'ite spiritual leaders to issue fatwas against Shi'ite opponents of the regime. The overall strategy of defense is concentrated in the cities, especially Baghdad, which could magnify the political nightmare in terms of Western and Arab public opinion as there will be high "collateral damage". And as the Central Command in Qatar will welcome those who want to follow the war by remote control, the regime will also play the media, although there are rumors in the Middle East that the Americans will bomb any satellite phone signal that is not registered with them. Two key bridges over the Tigris in Baghdad were bombed by the Americans in 1991. According to the latest echoes from Baghdad, people suspect all six bridges will be bombed this time, so everybody will have to use boats or motorboats to get from one side to the other. The US forces will certainly divide the city to confine the defense to certain areas. This means that civilians will also be confined to their neighborhoods. Local Ba'ath Party members in each neighborhood are now mostly housed in schools. Their fundamental mission during the war will be to distribute stocks of water and alcohol - essential for heating and cooking. Order will be maintained by a party official in each and every street (that's how it already works anyway). People won't be allowed to leave their homes. This could also mean that many wounded won't be able to go to hospital, and aid agencies will have a nightmare trying to distribute food. The regime says that rations that could last until June have already been distributed, and Iraqi TV every day alerts that they should not be resold because everyone will need them. And residents fear above all the hellish rain of fire already promised with glee by many a Pentagon official. Ordinary Iraqis, naturally fatalistic, expect to be the main targets, as they have been the targets of sanctions for the past 12 years. US forces may not disable Iraq's command and control systems because the army-as-an extended-family simply will not be relying on high tech. There will be suicide martyrs everywhere, according to the Ba'ath leadership, and civilians in some neighborhoods seem to be prepared to defend the city in house-to-house fighting. Indeed, Kalashnikovs have been distributed to certain sections of the population. It's unlikely that the Americans will know how to deal with the extremely complex tribal and clan structures already pre-positioned for a new redistribution of land, water, arms and prestige in case there's a new central power. Anyway, these clans are heavily armed already, and they will not help the United States during the war. They have nothing to gain by betraying Saddam: he can always survive and his revenge would be devastating. Iraqis, with a keen sense of history, remind anyone that Saddam has survived endless assassination attempts, coups, US presidents and a war against a 33-nation coalition. Saddam is betting on a replay of the siege of Stalingrad. His key strategy is to maintain the control of the population for as long as possible. He might even be betting on a popular revolution against the invader. And Saddam may escape alive. He has as many as nine doubles. Like Osama bin Laden, he could vanish into virtual reality - cynics with a wicked sense of humor even advance that this may be part of the whole deal. One thing is certain. It's absolutely impossible for anyone who hasn't been to Iraq even to imagine the tremendous frustration, anger, humiliation and terminal desperation caused by 12 years of sanctions. When the United States stops bombing, and if the security apparatus disintegrates, the decomposition of the regime will be beyond brutal. Iraqis are convinced chaos is inevitable. Even with the fall of the regime, there will be violent popular opposition to an invasion. Few may heed a call to arms to defend the regime. But many would not hesitate to force the invader out. Especially because very few in Iraq seem to be convinced that the US wants to invest in a Marshall plan and mold the country into a "beacon of democracy", as well as prosperity, in the Middle East. The fact is, the whole country could be easily engulfed in a bloody mix of civil war and liberation struggle that no Douglas MacArthur and no occupation force will ever be able to control. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/25_02_03/art22.asp * PROMINENT IRAQIS APPEAL FOR DEMOCRACY Daily Star, Lebanon, 25th February Four prominent Iraqi figures, including two former ministers, have appealed to the UN Secretary-General to initiate Security Council moves to establish an interim civil administration in Iraq, should the Iraqi regime collapse or be overthrown. In an appeal made available to the press on Sunday, they called on the UN to help establish "a democratic regime in Iraq" in a post-Saddam Hussein era. Their request coincides with other voices in the Arab world calling on the Iraqi regime to reform and increase freedoms for its citizens. The four Iraqis who issued the appeal are former Foreign Affairs Minister Adnan al-Babjaji, former Industry and Economy Minister Adib al-Jader, economist and former UN official Mahdi al-Hafez, and respected economist and publisher Walid Khaddouri. They called for the creation of an Iraqi temporary government under UN supervision. "We call on the Security Council to adopt our legitimate request for the benefit of our people and to establish an interim Iraqi government by cooperating with a special UN mission in the framework of a timetable leading to a democratically elected government," said the statement. Jader told the Daily Star in a telephone interview from Geneva on Monday that they issued the appeal due to the imminent threat of an invasion of Iraq. He said Iraqis would view a long-term American presence as an occupation that would be rejected, saying instead that the idea of a joint UN-Iraqi interim administration would be for the benefit of all, including Iraq, its neighbors, the USA, and the UN. "Iraqis will be more willing to cooperate with the UN than with an American administration," he said. The four said an interim administration and UN agencies should "prepare themselves to supply humanitarian aid to the citizens and help them overcome the forthcoming hardships." The four had previously issued an appeal on Feb. 13 calling on the Iraqi leadership to step down to avert the "disastrous consequences of war." Meanwhile, more than 70 Mideast nongovernment organizations and 131 intellectuals on Monday urged Baghdad to improve conditions for ordinary Iraqis. The call was made in a petition organized by the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (CIHRS). The petition, drawn up under the slogan "No to War No to Tyranny," also voiced opposition to a US-led war against Iraq. The groups backed a list of recommendations to be presented to the Arab summit scheduled for March 1 Sharm el-Sheikh. The CIHRS initiative called for the "salvation of the Iraqi people and obstructing the accelerating US war vehicle." A CIHRS statement said political reform in Iraq "requires abolishing overly restrictive laws, invalidating laws that encompass aggravated penalties against opponents, providing for freedom of expression, the right to association and membership in political parties and recognizing the right to participate freely in public affairs." http://www.dailystar.com.lb/25_02_03/art11.asp * ARSLAN MEETS WITH SADDAM TO SHOW LEBANESE SUPPORT by Hala Kilani Daily Star, Lebanon, 25th February Saddam Hussein denounced the "laziness" of the Arab world in confronting a possible US led attack against Iraq during talks with Lebanese Minister of State Talal Arslan over the weekend. Arslan, the president of the Lebanese Democratic Party, conveyed to the Iraqi president Lebanon's "solidarity with Iraq in standing up against the American-Israeli attack," as well as regards from President Emile Lahoud, according to a statement from the party Sunday. Hussein chastized the "laziness" of Arabs in defending Iraq, saying that if the "Arab nation gives up its human role, it would have failed humanity." "Any true patriotic and nationalistic person would believe in the right of the nation, in sovereignty and independence, and would realize the dangers facing the nation," Hussein said. "Otherwise, there would be something wrong with his patriotism and national belonging." Arslan's visit to Baghdad followed an earlier one by Maan Bashour, the head of the Association of Leagues and Committees, who visited the Iraqi president for the first time since he and Minister of State Beshara Merhej broke away from the Iraqi Baath Party 30 years ago. Bashour told The Daily Star that Hussein thinks Israel is involving the US in a war that will end its influence in the world, as it did in the past with Great Britain and France. "In the 1950s Israel led Britain and France against (former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel) Nasser, and that war proved to be the beginning of the end for the European powers' influence," Bashour quoted Hussein as saying. Saddam said that the 1956 war ended an era in the history of the world. "Now Israel is doing the same with the United States. This war against Iraq will end America's influence in the world; therefore both the Iraqis and the Americans will be victims of a war planned by the Zionists," Hussein said. Asked if he sensed whether the Iraqi leader was scared by the threats targeting him, Bashour said "not at all. "The morale of the whole leadership is not low at all; they are preparing themselves as if the war were starting tomorrow, and they are reconstructing the country as if there were no threat at all,"he said. Bashour said that he did not expect to see Saddam shaken by the current situation because whether the war takes place or not, the Iraqi President believes that he will emerge from it victorious. "Saddam identifies himself with two historical characters: that of Salaheddine, the Arab (actually a Kurd) who liberated Palestine, and the Prophet Mohammed's grandson Hussein" Bashour said. "Facing a superpower like the United States makes him feel like Salaheddine and getting defeated by it would make him feel like a martyr, like Hussein was," he said. "In both cases for him, it's a victory." http://www.wn.com/p/33/36e13bb2d39d.html?id=1206879 * SADDAM HUSSEIN REJECTS GOING INTO EXILE Associated Press, 26th February BAGHDAD, Iraq: Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein says he would rather die than leave his country, dismissing recent arguments by U.S. and Arab leaders that he could go into exile to avoid war. "We will die here. We will die in this country and we will maintain our honor the honor that is required ... in front of our people," Saddam says in an interview with CBS' Dan Rather. The network reported excerpts of the interview on its Web site Tuesday night, and said the comments would air Wednesday on "60 Minutes II." "Whoever decides to forsake his nation from whoever requests is not true to the principles," Saddam says. "I believe that whoever ... offers Saddam asylum in his own country is in fact a person without morals." President Bush said last month that he would welcome Saddam Hussein going into exile and some Arab countries, most notably Saudi Arabia, have proposed offering Saddam exile to avoid a war. Saddam also denied any links to Osama bin Laden or al-Qaida and indicated he would not set fire to Iraq's oil fields or destroy its dams if a U.S.-led invasion occurs in Iraq. "Iraq does not burn its wealth and it does not destroy its dams," Saddam says. He said that Iraq has never had any relationship to al-Qaida terrorists, "and I think that Mr. bin Laden himself has recently, in one of his speeches, given such an answer that we have no relation with him." In a part of the interview that aired earlier Tuesday on CBS, the Iraqi president indicated he wouldn't heed a U.N. demand to destroy Iraq's Al Samoud 2 missiles and said his missiles didn't exceed ranges allowed by the United Nations. But Iraq's deputy prime minister, Tariq Aziz insisted Tuesday that the government had not yet decided whether to destroy its Al Samoud 2 missiles. "It's being studied," Aziz said. "Readiness for the aggression is continuing ... but this doesn't mean that we should stop our political and diplomatic work," Aziz said. "We should continue with it, but we should also prepare ourselves for the battle." Both Iraqi and U.N. officials spoke of new, substantive cooperation. U.N. inspectors visited a pit where Iraq says it destroyed biological weapons in 1991, and Iraq reported finding an R-400 bomb containing liquid at a disposal site. "We have made some progress. In fact, we have made some breakthroughs," said Lt. Gen. Amer al-Saadi, Saddam's adviser on the inspections. Iraq appeared to be sending conflicting messages over an order from chief weapons inspector Hans Blix to begin destroying its Al Samouds and their components by the end of the week because the missiles can fly farther than allowed. The missiles are still being produced and tested, the inspectors' spokesman in Baghdad, Hiro Ueki, said Tuesday. He said the last test took place Monday. Al-Saadi also said Iraq was still studying the U.N. missile order. He said he would not comment on the Saddam interview because he had not seen it. Ueki said at a news conference that the United Nations was still awaiting an official response on the missiles. He said inspectors have completed tagging all deployed Al Samoud 2 missiles but still needed to tag some unassembled components. Ueki also said inspectors have begun to visit excavations by the Iraqis southeast of Baghdad at a site where Iraq says it destroyed bombs filled with biological agents in 1991. On Monday and Tuesday, inspectors examined munitions fragments around the pit, he said. U.S. warplanes, meanwhile, bombed missile launch systems in northern and southern Iraq on Tuesday because they threatened coalition forces enforcing no-fly zones, the U.S. military said. U.S. and British planes have been enforcing no-fly zones in north and south Iraq since the 1991 Gulf War. They are intended to protect minority Kurds in the north and Shiite Muslims in the south from Iraqi government forces. WILY KURDS http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=2B4924A7-96AF-40D1 BB5095432B535DB4&title=Norway%20Expels%20Islamic%20Extremist%20Leader&catOID =45C9C78D-88AD-11D4-A57200A0CC5EE46C * NORWAY EXPELS ISLAMIC EXTREMIST LEADER Voice of America, 19th February Norway has expelled the head of an Iraqi Kurdish Islamic extremist group, calling him a possible attraction for terrorists and a threat to Norwegian national security. Norway says Mullah Krekar controls the radical Islamic group Ansar al-Islam, based in an autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq near the Iranian border. Norwegian officials believe the group has ties to al-Qaida and say some of its members fought in Afghanistan. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell mentioned the group during his speech to the U.N. Security Council two weeks ago. He said Ansar al-Islam has allowed a senior Iraqi official inside the group and believes there is a chemical weapons factory in the area under its control. Mullah Krekar says he will appeal Norway's expulsion order. He has denied any ties to al Qaida and says he has nothing to do with Saddam Hussein. Authorities are giving Mullah Krekar two weeks to leave the country. He has had refugee status in Norway since 1991. He was arrested in the Netherlands last September and spent for months in custody during which time he was reportedly questioned by F-B-I agents. Jordan has also asked Norway to extradite him there, where he is wanted on drug charges. http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=77980 * KDP ARRESTS AGENTS OF IRAQ REGIME Gulf News, from Reuters, 20th February Arbil: Kurds running a breakaway enclave in north Iraq said yesterday they had arrested agents of Baghdad who threatened the safety of Iraqi opposition leaders gathering here to plan for a future after Saddam Hussain. One detainee comes from a party representing Turkmens, a small ethnic group whose interests are upheld by Turkey, which has a long history of friction with its own Kurdish minority. A top official of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), one of two Kurdish factions that wrested northern Iraq from Baghdad's grip after the 1991 Gulf War, said the KDP had arrested at least five people. "This threat was real, genuine and credible. The information we had confirmed there was a serious threat to this meeting by Iraqi intelligence, trying to use some local people under various covers, including the head of the Turkmen Front security, but he was arrested," said Hoshiyar Zebari of the KDP. "This is purely a security issue, we are not blaming the whole Turkmen Front. Even if he had been a member of the KDP we would have dealt with him the same way," he told a joint news conference with the other Kurdish faction, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. The KDP is preparing to host a meeting of Iraq's fractious opposition groups to plan for a post-Saddam Iraq. http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c =StoryFT&cid=1045511010651&p=1012571727159/ * MOVE TO FREEZE ASSETS OF ISLAMIC GROUP by Jimmy Burns Financial Times, 21st February The Bank of England moved yesterday to freeze the assets of an Islamic fundamentalist group named by Colin Powell, US secretary of state, as a link between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda. Acting as agent for the Treasury, the Bank directed all banks to freeze any funds that they held for, or on behalf of, Ansar al-Islam, and to report any suspicious transactions linked to the group. The Bank said the Treasury had "reasonable grounds" for suspecting that the named organisation involved persons who could "facilitate or participate in the commission of acts of terrorism". Although the group has not been identified as being active in the UK or being linked to any front organisations, according to Treasury officials, the move was part of the US-led international efforts aimed at disrupting the financing of terrorism. "The move forms part of efforts to maintain pressure on international terrorism and to stop it from moving its money around," an official said. Ansar al-Islam, also known as the Soldiers of Islam and the Kurdistan Taliban, operates in the Kurdish-controlled area of north-eastern Iraq, outside of Saddam Hussein's command. Mr Powell told the United Nations Security Council two weeks ago that al-Qaeda had found a safe haven with Ansar al-Islam. He said a link between the two organisations had been established with Mr Hussein through a network under the control of Abu Mussab al- Zarkawi, a 36-year-old Jordanian al-Qaeda operative. The interest in the group within the UK has developed amid western intelligence claims that it has been involved in the development of chemicals such as ricin. Anti-terrorist police and other agencies in Europe are continuing their investigation into the ricin trail that emerged when traces of the poison and facilities for its production were discovered in north London on January 5. Publicity surrounding Ansar al-Islam first emerged just days before the September 11 terror attacks when it delivered a manifesto condemning the inhabitants of the mountain villages in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq. Mr Powell's assertions have been challenged by the International Crisis Group, a Brussels based conflict resolution think-tank. The ICG says the use of Ansar al-Islam in the US government's case for war against Iraq "has catapulted the small extremist group to a significance that does not appear warranted by the facts". http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2265438 * IRAQI KURD LEADER SAYS STRONG MORAL CASE FOR WAR Reuters, 21st February LONDON (Reuters) - An Iraqi Kurdish leader says there is an "overwhelming" moral case for war against President Saddam Hussein to end decades of genocide and repression of the Iraqi people. Barham Salah, prime minister of half of northern Iraq's breakaway Kurdish region, said anti war campaigners in the West were naive and Iraqis would be jubilant if Saddam was overthrown. "I cannot think of another situation where the moral case for regime change...for overthrowing this tyranny could be more powerful, more overwhelming," he told BBC radio on Friday from northern Iraq. "I predict to you with absolute certainty that the streets of Baghdad will be filled with jubilant people celebrating their freedom and welcoming the international forces, the American and British forces, as liberators and as heroes. The scenes in Baghdad will not be too different from the scenes witnessed in Paris and Rome in 1944," he told Radio 4's Today programme. Iraq's northern Kurdish region, citing long-standing oppression by governments doubtful of its loyalty, broke away from Baghdad's control after the 1991 Gulf war and is now run by two Kurdish parties, formerly rivals but now partners. Prime Minister Tony Blair, having failed to win public support for war on the basis of Saddam's suspected weapons of mass destruction, has shifted the focus to the moral case for ridding the Iraqi people of a brutal dictator. But anti-war campaigners, fearing that thousands of civilians might be killed in an attack on Iraq, organised protests which brought millions of people onto the streets of world capitals last weekend. Salah, who leads the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) government, said the true moral case for war was the need to topple a regime that he said had killed up to two million people through repression and ethnic cleansing. "Morality requires an end to ethnic cleansing," he said. "I'm perplexed by some of the people, especially in western Europe, who argue for no war...They are misreading the situation in Iraq, they are naive," he said. http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/24/international/middleeast/24KURD.html * FEUD BETWEEN KURDISH CLANS CREATES ITS OWN WAR by C. J. Chivers New York Times, 24th February ALAKIN, Iraq, Feb. 18 One threat to stability in Iraq after any war to remove Saddam Hussein takes the form of a dapper 45-year old man, educated in the United States and fluent in English, who has a yen for cologne, pressed shirts and silk ties. His name is Najat al-Sourchi. He is planning what would be a deeply destabilizing murder. Mr. Sourchi wants to kill Massoud Barzani, an American ally and president of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which has played host to Central Intelligence Agency teams in northern Iraq since last fall. Many people here regard Mr. Barzani as a resistance hero, the embodiment of a surname synonymous with the Kurdish autonomy struggle, which Mr. Sourchi himself supports. This high place in local lore matters not to Mr. Sourchi. He is a Kurd who wants a Kurdish leader dead. "I want Massoud's head," he said. Much of northern Iraq is talking peace these days, of unifying opposition groups pledged to defeat Mr. Hussein, and of reconciling tensions lingering from the Kurdish civil war. The former combatants in that fratricidal fight in the 1990's, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, have achieved a degree of peace, and are showing signs of cooperation as American forces build in the region, preparing to unseat their common enemy in Baghdad. They are to be hosts of an opposition conference set to begin in Erbil any day. But beneath this sense of common purpose, tensions simmer from years of plotting, counterplotting and bloodletting. Mr. Sourchi is consumed by a blood feud, and has sworn to avenge the death in 1996 of his uncle, Hussein Agha al-Sourchi, 65, for which he blames Mr. Barzani. It is one of several feuds that exist beneath the businesslike dialogue of changing Iraq, and is a worrisome indicator of the fragility of peace in a land where even people with common goals are intent on settling old scores. "This is a place where ancient rivalries and practices do not die quickly," said Barham Salih, prime minister of the eastern Kurdish zone. "There are lots of animosities that may come to the fore after Saddam is gone." During the decades of dictatorial rule before Kurds broke free of Mr. Hussein in an uprising after the Persian Gulf war in 1991, many Kurdish tribes served the Baghdad government. They formed military units, known as jash, which sometimes fought other Kurds, including the Bazarnis, who led much of the Kurdish resistance to Baghdad. One of the jash tribes was the Sourchis. In a gesture of reconciliation after the uprising in 1991, when Mr. Hussein's army withdrew from northern Iraq, the Kurdish resistance granted amnesty to most jash, including the Sourchis, who controlled a network of villages along a strategic road through Iraq's northern mountains. When the civil war between Kurds broke out in 1994, however, loyalties shifted anew. In 1996, the Barzanis accused the Sourchis of collaborating with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. On June 16 of that year Barzani fighters advanced on this village, hoping to capture Najat's brother, Zayed, who they said was spying for the other side. Nearly seven years later, details of the fight and the sacking of several Sourchi homes that ensued are still in dispute. But no one disputes that Hussein Agha al-Sourchi, the tribal elder, was fatally shot by Barzani fighters. Thirteen Barzani fighters were also killed. Zayed al-Sourchi, whom the Barzanis still say was a spy, escaped. The Barzanis have expressed regret about the death of the Sourchi chief, saying he was not the target of the raid. "I was sorry before and I am sorry now that that happened," Mr. Barzani said. Najat and Zayed say that regret is not enough and that Mr. Barzani must publicly accept responsibility and apologize. They also want to kill Nerchervan Barzani, Massoud Barzani's nephew and the prime minister of the western Kurdish zone, who they say helped plan the raid. After the killing, many Sourchis remained in or near Kalakin, and some are loyal to Mr. Barzani. Ali Hussein al-Sourchi, a lawyer, recently walked among ruined houses and said what befell the tribal leaders was their own fault, because they were jash working for the Iraqi government. "They hurt the people of this area so much," he said. Other Sourchis joined the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. They now live in internal exile in Sulaimaniya, where they claim to have 706 gunmen on their payroll, some of whom provide military support to Jalal Talabani, the head of the Patriotic Union. >From a heavily guarded house in Sulaimaniya, Najat al-Sourchi says it is the Barzanis who are jash, noting that they invited Mr. Hussein's army to attack Erbil in 1996 when the civil war against Mr. Talabani's fighters was going badly. "How could a man who says he is a Kurdish hero collaborate with Saddam Hussein?" he said. "I ask this: Who is the real jash?" The Sourchis' reassertion of the feud has baffled and angered many Kurdish officials, who say it is badly timed. Kurds are trying to show unity now, not fractures in their ranks. "These people should be quiet," said Sami Abdul Rahman, one of Mr. Barzani's closest confidants. Mr. Barzani, as the leader of a principal political party and the de facto commander of a local army tens of thousands strong, is indisputably important to the future of Iraq. He expressed exasperation at the Sourchis' call for his head, describing Najat as "somebody who was brought up with the milk of treachery and treason." But he chose a calmer path, offering to let the exiled tribesmen return to their village and suggesting he was too well guarded to be killed by Najat al-Sourchi. "We have opened a new page," he said. "He knows very well he cannot assassinate me, and I do not want to kill him." Mr. Sourchi rejects talk of truce. "There is blood between us, and every day, every minute of every day, I think of killing him," he said. "It is like a dream in my mind." Still, in quiet moments, sipping tea and talking softly, he sometimes reflects about the sadness of it all. "I'm not saying this is good, but it is the tradition of Kurdistan," he said. "I know it is not good." http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=381098 * IRAQI KURDS TERRIFIED BY PROSPECT OF TURKISH INVASION by Patrick Cockburn in Arbil, northern Iraq The Independent, 24th February Kurdish leaders warned Turkish soldiers yesterday against crossing Iraq's northern border as the first step in a plan to end the de facto independence enjoyed by Iraqi Kurdistan for 10 years. "Any intervention under any circumstances will lead to clashes," Hoshyar Zebari, an influential Kurdish leader, said. "It will be bad for the reputations of the US and the UK to see two of their allies the Turks and the Kurds at each other's throats." The Turkish parliament is poised to vote on an agreement that would allow thousands of American troops to be deployed in Turkey to spearhead the northern front against Saddam Hussein. But Turkey announced over the weekend that it would launch its own invasion, with the Kurds rather than Saddam Hussein as the target. "Turkey is adamant that it wants a foothold inside Iraq," said a Kurdish leader privy to recent talks with Turkey. "Once they are in it will be very difficult to get them out." Washington, desperate for Turkish military co-operation, has not opposed the operation. The Turkish army would occupy a long tract of territory inside the border of northern Kurdistan, setting a precedent for a further advance. Mr Zebari said: "It would be a nightmare for us because the Turks could easily cut our communications with the outside world. Our people are terrified by the prospect." A Turkish invasion, even if only partial, would cause turmoil in northern Iraq, and Kurdish leaders claim it would be resisted by local forces. Television pictures of Kurdish villagers in flight from the Turks, allied to America and Britain, would take the sheen off efforts by President Bush and Tony Blair to portray the war as a moral crusade. Turkish generals and officials explained that the purpose of their advance was to prevent Kurdish refugees entering Turkey as they did in 1991. Since the justification for the incursion was humanitarian, not military, the troops would be under Turkish, not US, command. Kurdish leaders see Turkey's humanitarian intentions as a smokescreen. One, who did not want to be named, said: "The Turks have four aims: they want to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish entity with de facto independence; ensure that the rebellion of the Turkish Kurds does not start again; protect the Turkomans in Iraq; and make sure we do not take Kirkuk or Mosul." The Kurds were shocked when Turkey first declared its intentions at a meeting in Ankara this month. The Kurds reject the idea that a mass exodus of Kurdish refugees is more than an excuse. In 1991 the Kurds were frightened because the Iraqi army had gassed them in Halabja three years before. Today there is a well-organised Kurdish administration with an experienced army to defend them. The Iraqi army is very unlikely to advance north against the Kurds when it is under attack from America. The Kurds have only limited leverage because Washington needs Turkey more than it needs them. America does not want the Kurdish forces to become involved in the war. It may, however, want them to help to persuade some of the key Arab tribes of northern Iraq to withdraw their support for President Saddam. The Kurds are by far the strongest force in the Iraqi opposition. The Kurdistan Democratic Party, which controls western Kurdistan, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan under Jalal Talabani, which rules eastern Kurdistan, together have about 25,000 trained soldiers as well as militia forces. They rule four million people in an area the size of Switzerland. Patrick Cockburn is visiting fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/02/24/iraq/main541750.shtml * U.S. SLOW TO SANCTION TERROR GROUP by Jarrett Murphy CBS News, 24th February Three weeks ago, Secretary of State Colin Powell said links between Baghdad and the group Ansar al-Islam were evidence that Saddam Hussein supported terrorism. But it wasn't until last week that the U.S. government froze the assets of the group. And the State Department still doesn't list Ansar as a formally designated Foreign Terrorist Organization. The delay in freezing Ansar's assets, and the lack of a formal terrorist designation, could bolster the case of those who are skeptical of the U.S. claim that Iraq is linked to terrorism. Ansar al-Islam controls the area of northern Iraq where, according to Powell, alleged al Qaeda operative Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has established a terrorist training center. In his testimony to the U.N. Security Council on Feb. 5, Powell contended the center trained terrorists to use poison. He said the compound lay in "northern Kurdish areas outside Saddam Hussein's controlled Iraq." "But Baghdad has an agent in the most senior levels of the radical organization Ansar al Islam that controls this corner of Iraq," Powell said. "In 2000, this agent offered al Qaeda safe haven in the region." Ansar was not the only element of the U.S. claim that Saddam supports terrorism. The bulk of Powell's case concerned al-Zarqawi, who allegedly received treatment in a Baghdad hospital last year and established an al Qaeda cell there. Powell also said Iraqi agents had provided training to al Qaeda. But many of those opposed to possible military action against Iraq have said the evidence of connections between Baghdad and al Qaeda was not convincing. That impression could be strengthened by the late addition of Ansar to the list of entities whose assets must be blocked, and by the fact that it is not on the formal list of terrorist entities. Even the State Department's normally unflappable spokesman, Richard Boucher, seemed confused when announcing the blocking of Ansar's assets at his regular briefing on Thursday. "We've put them on the Foreign Terrorist Organization list already, right?" he asked reporters. That is not the case. Asked Monday about the delay in freezing the assets, a State Department staff member, who refused to be identified, said Ansar "was designated when we had the information necessary to designate it." The staff member said the process of listing organizations had its own timetable. The State Department order issued last Thursday blocked U.S. institutions from conducting any transactions involving Ansar's funds, and asked the Security Council to issue similar orders for foreign institutions. "This action imposes strong penalties on those who provide financial support to terrorist organizations, blocking the assets of designated organizations such as Ansar al-Islam and individuals linked to global terrorism," Boucher said in a statement released after his briefing. He added: "The Department has not designated this group as a Foreign Terrorist Organization." Boucher said the reason the U.S. was freezing Ansar's assets but not adding it to the list of terrorist organizations was that the standard of evidence is different for each action. A group listed as a Foreign Terrorist Organization must "engage in terrorist activity" and "threaten the security of U.S. nationals or the national security (national defense, foreign relations, or the economic interests) of the United States," according to the State Department. But to freeze a group's assets, the organization must merely "pose a significant risk of committing" terrorist acts, or fund or support groups that do, according to the executive order governing asset freezing. Because of the stiff evidence test, the list of designated terrorist organizations is an exclusive one: it only contains 36 groups, compared to the thousands of people and organizations whose assets are frozen. The State Department briefly discussed Ansar al-Islam in a December 2002 report on Iraq, estimating that the group had about 8,000 people including about 600 fighters in its Iraqi enclave. The report referred to the claim that the group was linked to the Iraqi government, but noted that "Baghdad does not control Northern Iraq and some U.S. officials, speaking on background, have said they cannot verify this report." The December report claims the leader of the group, Mullah Krekar, trained under the same Islamic scholar who tutored Osama bin Laden. Krekar resides in Norway, but Norway has said it will deport him. The country's immigration service warned Krekar in September that he might be thrown out. As of Feb. 20, Krekar was still not on the U.S. list of persons whose assets must be blocked. The State Department would not say whether his listing was pending. Baghdad denies any link to terrorism. _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss To contact the list manager, email casi-discuss-admin@lists.casi.org.uk All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk