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[casi] Correction: key disarmament tasks and 1284 timeline

1) 120 period for sanctions 'suspension' under 1284
has not yet started.
2) 'Key disarmament tasks' and OMV plan to be
defined by end of March 2003.

Dear all

I sent out some letters 'correcting' reports in various
papers which had said (roughly) 'UNMOVIC and the
IAEA should draw up Iraq's key remaining
disarmament tasks by the end of March.' This turns
out to be correct, according to weird UNMOVIC logic
(you won't believe this stuff).

Para. 7 of Resolution 1284 says that this should be
done 'not later than 60 days after they have both
started work in Iraq'. I counted that as 60 days from
27 Nov, meaning 27 Jan.

Just spoke to Ewen Buchanan of UNMOVIC and he
explained that UNMOVIC are not considering the
first two months of their resumed activities as 'work'
as required by Resolution 1284. They were just in the
'build-up' phase.

So they officially 'started work' on 27 Jan. as far as
Resolution 1284 is concerned. This means the 'key
disarmament tasks' are not overdue, they could be put
off until 27 Mar.

Mr Buchanan gave me to understand that it was an
internal UNMOVIC decision to set the clocks ticking
this way, 'and no member of the Security Council has
challenged us on this' (not an exact direct quote).

At the same time, Resolution 1441 'instructs
UNMOVIC and requests the IAEA to resume
inspections no later than 45 days following adoption of
this resolution' which was on 8 Nov. So they had to
'resume inspections' before 23 Dec.

UNMOVIC are saying that they did 'resume
inspections' before 23 Dec. as far as Resolution 1441
is concerned, but that they did not 'start work' as far
as Resolution 1284 is concerned until 27 Jan.

'You can accuse us of having our cake and eating it,'
said Mr Buchanan to me just now.

Mr Buchanan also confirmed that the Ongoing
Monitoring and Verification system in Iraq is not yet
'fully operational'.

First the Security Council has to approve the
UNMOVIC and IAEA 'work programme' which
includes 'the implementation of the reinforced system
of ongoing monitoring and verification'. Then after
that 'blessing' has been given, the inspectors can set up
the system they have proposed, and it can become
'fully operational'.

120 days after OMV becomes 'fully operational', 'upon
receipt of reports from the Executive Chairman of
UNMOVIC and from the Director General of the
IAEA that Iraq has cooperated in all respects', the
Security Council can consider the suspension of
economic sanctions on Iraq.

The 'work programme' which includes both OMV and
'key disarmament tasks' has to be submitted by the
end of March. So we are some way away from the
possibility of suspension - I had been wondering if it
could be as soon as April, if OMV were 'fully
operational' some time in December. No dice.

This suspension stuff could have been an argument in
relation to the war/sanctions stuff. Not available.

My apologies for the earlier misinformation.

Best wishes


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