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RE: [casi] Blix orders Destruction of Iraq missiles.

Dear Ken and other list members,

Blix' letter is, in my view, completely fair given his mandate.  150 km is
150 km.  Less than that is legal; more is not.  This is the line that the
Security Council drew in 1991; Blix' job is to hold that line.  Thus, in
this case, any demands that the US government might make that these missiles
be destroyed are completely consistent with Council decisions.

One can debate whether this line is a meaningful one from the point of view
of regional security, or whether Security Council resolutions should be
respected.  My own sense, though, is that Blix' actions increase faith in
the inspections process.  To the extent that arguments for war are motivated
by concerns about Iraq's weapons, this decreases them.

You are right that it also decreases Iraq's defensive capabilities, but I do
not think that these missiles make much of a strategic difference.


Colin Rowat

work | Room 406, Department of Economics | The University of Birmingham |
Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK | | (+44/0) 121 414 3754 |
(+44/0) 121 414 7377 (fax) |

personal | (+44/0) 7768 056 984 (mobile) | (+44/0) 7092 378 517 (fax) |
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> -----Original Message-----
> From:
> []On Behalf Of k hanly
> Sent: 22 February 2003 2:56 AM
> To: pen
> Cc:
> Subject: [casi] Blix orders Destruction of Iraq missiles.
> It has taken a while for Blix to understand whose orders he is supposed to
> follow...At least the article notes that
> the US has been demanding this. The missiles only marginally exceed the
> allowed range and Iraq insists that when loaded with guidance systems etc.
> their range will be within allowed limits. Nice of Blix and the UN to
> destroy part of Iraq's defensive system ahead of the war or force Iraq to
> provide an international fig leaf to justify preemptive war. Note that ALL
> the missiles are to be destroyed even though only some of those
> tested went
> further than the allowable range. Note too that Iraq itself
> reported the test results that 13 or the 40 missiles went beyond
> the limits!
> Cheers, Ken Hanly
> Blix orders Iraq to destroy missles
> Associated Press
> ted Nations - Chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix ordered Iraq
> on Friday to
> destroy dozens of its missiles with ranges that violate UN
> limits, and gave
> Baghdad a March 1 deadline to begin the demolition.
> In a four-page letter, Mr. Blix told Iraq to hand over to inspectors "for
> verifiable destruction" all Al Samoud 2 missiles and warheads,
> SA-2 missile
> engines configured for use in the missiles, machinery to produce missile
> motors, and a host of other items.
> "The appropriate arrangements should be made so that the
> destruction process
> can commence by March 1, 2003," Mr. Blix said in the letter.
> March 1 is also
> the date Mr. Blix's next report on Iraqi compliance is due to the Security
> Council.
> Iraq's response to the order will test its willingness to disarm as
> negotiations for possible war enter a crucial stage. The United States and
> Britain are trying to focus the world's attention on illegal Iraqi weapons
> activities while they prepare a new resolution that could pave the way for
> military action.
> Secretary of State Colin Powell sought support from foreign ministers of
> four Security Council nations Friday for such a resolution, which
> is likely
> to be introduced early next week.
> Stepping up the pressure on Saddam Hussein, Mr. Blix was also preparing a
> list of more than 35 outstanding issues surrounding Iraq's
> disarmament that
> he will present to his advisory board of commissioners when they meet on
> Monday at UN headquarters.
> The order to destroy its missiles confronts the Iraqi government with a
> serious dilemma: whether to give up a valuable weapons system its military
> would almost certainly use against a U.S.-led coalition, or
> refuse to comply
> and face accusations that it is not cooperating with UN inspectors.
> Mr. Blix, handed the letter, plus the findings of an independent panel of
> experts, to Iraqi Ambassador Mohammed Al-Douri at UN headquarters, where
> they met for more than an hour Friday.
> "The necessary destruction is to be carried out by Iraq under," under UN
> guidance and supervision, he wrote. The inspectors "will select from a
> variety of methods of destruction, depending on items to be
> destroyed, such
> as explosive demolition, crushing, melting, and other physical
> and chemical
> methods."
> Mr. Blix's order said the Al Samoud 2 missiles exceed the 93-mile
> limit set
> by a UN resolutions at the end of the 1991 Gulf War.
> "The necessary destruction is to be carried out by Iraq under . .
> . guidance
> and supervision" of U.N. inspectors, Mr. Blix said.
> Mr. Blix is also preparing a list of outstanding questions about Iraq's
> biological, chemical and missile programs.
> The list won't be included in his March 1 report but he will
> likely be asked
> about it when he addresses the council, most likely on March 7. U.S.
> officials have said they would be paying close attention to the
> list, which
> could serve as a barometer for what inspectors have and haven't
> gotten from
> Iraq.
> The Americans had strongly pushed for the destruction of the missiles.
> Iraq maintains that some Al Samouds traveled beyond a range limit
> set by the
> Security Council because they were tested without warheads or guidance
> systems, which made them lighter.
> Mr. Al-Douri reiterated Friday that Iraq wants UN technical
> experts to come
> to Iraq to see that the missiles can't exceed 150 kilometres, and
> not limit
> themselves "to a written paper, a theoretical report."
> But some former inspectors insist the technology Iraq chose for the Al
> Samoud 2 was clearly intended to support missile systems with
> longer ranges.
> David Kay, a chief nuclear weapons inspector after the Gulf War, said he
> believes the Al-Samoud tests indicate Iraq is developing missiles to go
> consistently beyond 150 kilometres.
> "I think it is worrying," he said, noting that the former UN
> inspection team
> told the Iraqis in 1997 that the Al Samoud missiles they were
> then building
> would exceed the limit "and not to do it."
> "They went ahead," Mr. Kay said. "The Iraqis understood that if
> the payload
> were lighter it would go further. They played the game from very
> early on."
> Iraq had declared the results of the missile tests in its
> semiannual report
> to U.N. inspectors in October, and again in its 12,000-page weapons
> declaration on Dec. 7. It said that 13 of the 40 tests went beyond the
> 150-kilometre limit, once to 180 kilometres.
> Diplomatic sources said Iraq declared 76 Al-Samouds in June 2002 and said
> some had been used for tests and component parts. But Iraq has
> continued to
> produce the missiles, and UN inspectors now estimate they have between 100
> and 120, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
> Last week, Mr. Blix told the Security Council that the panel of
> international experts also concluded that casting chambers that previous
> inspectors destroyed - but Iraq rebuilt - could still be used to produce
> motors for missiles capable of ranges "significantly greater" than 150
> kilometres.
> The experts said they needed more data on another missile, the Al Fatah,
> which Iraq also reported had gone beyond the limit in some tests.
> Mr. Blix's
> letter is expected to ask Iraq for this information.
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