The following is an archived copy of a message sent to a Discussion List run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq.

Views expressed in this archived message are those of the author, not of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq.

[Main archive index/search] [List information] [Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq Homepage]

[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

[casi] UN humanitarian scenarios draft ocument

Dear list members,

A draft internal UN document on possible humanitarian scenarios for a war
on Iraq, dated 10 December 2002, has been added to the CASI website at I have included the notes to
the document (available at below.

Best wishes,

Jonathan Stevenson

Co-ordinator | Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq
tel 01223 521914 | mob 07818 651124 |


Notes to accompany "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios"
This is an explanatory note to accompany the UN document titled "Likely
Humanitarian Scenarios" which is hosted on this site.

First reported in James Bone, "UN chief issues secret orders for war in
Iraq", Times (London), 23 December 2002, this "strictly confidential" UN
document examines "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios" in the event of a war in
Iraq. The document context is UN contingency planning and is filled with
various UN agency data estimates for a wide range of specific humanitarian
issues. It includes general military scenarios and likely outcomes for the
infrastructure, the economy and Iraqi civilians. The text focuses on
potential civilian needs and coping mechanisms. These need and coping
mechanisms are presented in the context of the current, sanctions-related
humanitarian situation: a damaged economy and infrastructure, and almost
total dependence on the Government of Iraq for basic needs provision,
including an estimated 16 million Iraqis who completely depend on and
consume monthly food rations. It is further noted sanctions-related
chronic unemployment has led many civilians to exhaust their cash assets
and dispose of their material ones. Equating civilian-related situations
and coping abilities with those during the 1991 Gulf War and the 2001
Afghanistan bombardment is addressed and categorized as "not valid".
Predictions include electricity sector degradation and resulting capacity
damage in all sectors (including health, water and sanitation), "The
outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic proportions" and 500,000
direct or indirect casualties. Needs scenarios are given as both emergency
and protracted. Funding issues and relations with the military are also

Please note this UN document is a draft. Estimates and other content may
have since been revised. Additionally, several paragraphs and tables have
been deleted at the request of the document's source, including the
entirety of page 3.

4 January 2003

Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq.
To unsubscribe, visit
To contact the list manager, email
All postings are archived on CASI's website:

[Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq Homepage]