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Dear list members, A draft internal UN document on possible humanitarian scenarios for a war on Iraq, dated 10 December 2002, has been added to the CASI website at www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/war021210.pdf. I have included the notes to the document (available at www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/war021210notes.html) below. Best wishes, Jonathan Stevenson Co-ordinator | Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq tel 01223 521914 | mob 07818 651124 www.casi.org.uk | firstname.lastname@example.org --- Notes to accompany "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios" This is an explanatory note to accompany the UN document titled "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios" which is hosted on this site. First reported in James Bone, "UN chief issues secret orders for war in Iraq", Times (London), 23 December 2002, this "strictly confidential" UN document examines "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios" in the event of a war in Iraq. The document context is UN contingency planning and is filled with various UN agency data estimates for a wide range of specific humanitarian issues. It includes general military scenarios and likely outcomes for the infrastructure, the economy and Iraqi civilians. The text focuses on potential civilian needs and coping mechanisms. These need and coping mechanisms are presented in the context of the current, sanctions-related humanitarian situation: a damaged economy and infrastructure, and almost total dependence on the Government of Iraq for basic needs provision, including an estimated 16 million Iraqis who completely depend on and consume monthly food rations. It is further noted sanctions-related chronic unemployment has led many civilians to exhaust their cash assets and dispose of their material ones. Equating civilian-related situations and coping abilities with those during the 1991 Gulf War and the 2001 Afghanistan bombardment is addressed and categorized as "not valid". Predictions include electricity sector degradation and resulting capacity damage in all sectors (including health, water and sanitation), "The outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic proportions" and 500,000 direct or indirect casualties. Needs scenarios are given as both emergency and protracted. Funding issues and relations with the military are also included. Please note this UN document is a draft. Estimates and other content may have since been revised. Additionally, several paragraphs and tables have been deleted at the request of the document's source, including the entirety of page 3. 4 January 2003 _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss To contact the list manager, email email@example.com All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk