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[casi] Blair's Iraq Dossier Promises Few Surprises



The following is a useful Reuters piece from Wednesday, summarising some of
the stuff buried in the British broadsheet coverage earlier this week.

Best wishes,

Gabriel
voices uk

***************************************

Blair's Iraq Dossier Promises Few Surprises
Wed Sep 4,12:21 PM ET
By Kate Kelland

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Tony Blair ( news - web sites) has
promised a dossier of evidence against Iraq but government comments
Wednesday suggested it would offer few, if any, revelations.

Asked to give an idea of what the evidence might be, one of Blair's
ministers was forced to fall back on findings dating back to the early 1990s
and well-worn speculation that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein ( news - web
sites) is trying to develop nuclear weapons.

"We have already indicated that the U.N. inspectors discovered vast amounts
of chemical and biological weapons when they were there," Junior Foreign
Office Minister Mike O'Brien told BBC radio.

"We know also that Saddam Hussein was trying to develop a nuclear capability
and develop a ballistic missile capacity before 1991 ... and we know that he
continued to seek to develop that after 1991 while the U.N. inspectors were
there."

A foreign office spokesman declined to comment when asked by Reuters if the
dossier would contain fresh evidence.

The remarks appeared to confirm what many analysts expect -- that the
"dossier" will merely re-state what the world already knows, and provide
little hard evidence to prove that Saddam is developing weapons of mass
destruction.

It is likely to be similar in style to a dossier on Osama bin Laden ( news -
web sites) produced to justify Britain's backing for the U.S.-led military
campaign in Afghanistan ( news - web sites) last year.

That 21-page document set out the government's case for a strike, but was
derided by lawyers as containing little of the kind of firm evidence that
would stand up in a court.

"(Blair) risks exactly the disappointment that greeted his "dossier" on
Osama bin Laden last year," Bronwen Maddox, foreign editor of The Times
newspaper, said in a commentary. "Those who are critical are unlikely to
find enough to convince them."

WINNING OVER THE PUBLIC

Blair's offer to publish the dossier is seen as a bid to win support for a
possible U.S.-led military strike on Iraq from a skeptical British public,
which wants to see damning evidence against Saddam first.

Sixty-five percent of 6,900 viewers polled by Good Morning Television said
they would support military action if there was evidence showing Saddam had
developed nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.

The prime minister's spokesman confirmed that Blair would meet Bush for
talks on Iraq at Bush's Camp David retreat on Saturday. "This will be a
useful opportunity to go over all the issues flowing from Saddam's
continuing violation of United Nations ( news - web sites) resolutions," the
spokesman told Reuters.

Blair showed no sign of backing away from military action against Baghdad
Tuesday when he warned the Iraqi leader that he faced "regime change" unless
he complied with U.N. resolutions on weapons of mass destruction.

Blair, who has twice taken his country to war in just five years in power --
in Kosovo and Afghanistan -- said there was no realistic alternative to
removing Saddam.

"Either the regime starts to function in a completely different way -- and
there's not much sign of that -- or the regime has to change," he told a
news conference.

Blair made clear he would continue to stand "shoulder to shoulder" with
President Bush ( news - web sites) as he promised to after the Sept. 11
attacks, saying: "America shouldn't have to face this issue alone, we should
face it together."

But if Blair's dossier fails to impress the British public, he will find it
hard to win support for joint British-American military action against Iraq.

An opinion poll this week showed 71 percent of Britons were against the
country joining any U.S. attack without the blessing of the United Nations.



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