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News, 17-20/7/02 (1) THE MORNING AFTER * US would keep troops in Iraq to aid reform * Iraq: The Day After * Iraq turns to Belarus for expertise in oil industry, manufacturing * Goodbye Saddam, hello your Majesty * Jordan prince touted to succeed Saddam INSIDE IRAQ * Saddam Says U.S. Won't Be Able to Oust Government * Five reported dead in attack on Iraq IRAQI/INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS * Iraq lodges protest against US for refusing to grant visas * Malaysia calls US action against Iraq undemocratic * France Opens Court Inquiry Into Gulf War Syndrome NORTHERN IRAQ/SOUTHERN KURDISTAN * Homeless and friendless THE MORNING AFTER http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-358938,00.html * US WOULD KEEP TROOPS IN IRAQ TO AID REFORM by Roland Watson The Times, 18th July AMERICAN troops would occupy Iraq for at least a year after toppling President Saddam Hussein to ensure the transition to a democratic regime, under plans being drawn up by the Bush Administration. A commitment to a peacekeeping presence would underline the way in which Washington intends to portray its proposed military action in Iraq as the "first step towards Middle East reform˛, American officials say. The force, which could include British and Jordanian troops, is designed in part to bolster international support by showing that the United States has a wider mission than simply returning with Saddam's head. Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, wants to use the end of Saddam's regime as a platform for wider reforms in the region. White House officials argue that other Gulf states, notably Jordan, could use a peaceful Iraq to take their own steps towards more open and democratic societies. The resulting "benign ripple effect˛ would help to ease the path towards a peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians, according to officials. The US military has been criticised because of the way some generals believe that an American mission should end after Saddam has been deposed. Contrary to that notion, however, the Pentagon is considering how US troops could help to stabilise Iraq, officals say. Part of the consideration would be to prevent ethnic rivalries within Iraq or opportunism by neighbours such as Iran disturbing the country's oil supplies. Options being assessed include a commitment of American troops for a year or more. Yesterday Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, decried the leaking of one Pentagon plan, which envisaged a force of more than 200,000 US troops attacking Iraq from three sides. He said that the leak put American lives at risk. Military analysts said that a US assault could, and possibly would, begin before the build up of forces in the region was complete. Anthony Cordesman, a former Pentagon official and expert on Iraq at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said that an attack could begin with crippling airstrikes and limited ground forces in place, reinforcing with follow-on forces. The key was to keep Iraq guessing about the details. "The US has an obvious incentive to deceive Iraq as much as possible as to which option it will execute. War by 'leak' does not have to mean war by accurate 'leak'.˛ [.....] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35080-2002Jul19.html * IRAQ: THE DAY AFTER by Robert Kagan Washington Post, 21st July Talk in Europe of a possible U.S. invasion of Iraq has been shifting lately. The panicked incredulity of a few months ago is turning into nervous resignation. Europeans increasingly consider an American invasion all but inevitable, whether they like it or not. And if the United States stubbornly insists on going forward, European officials privately acknowledge, their governments probably won't protest much. (The "European street" is another matter.) [.....] Now many Europeans are starting to ask a different set of questions: What about the day after the invasion? Does the United States have a workable plan for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq? And, most important of all, does the United States itself plan on sticking around long enough to build a new Iraq that is reasonably stable, peaceful, and democratic? Or will the Americans bug out after a few months or a year, leaving the job of putting Iraq back together to the United Nations or to Europe or, perhaps, to Iran? These are legitimate questions. In fact, they're the right questions at the right time. If a war in Iraq is going to come early next year, as some administration officials have been hinting, then people on this side of the Atlantic might want to start asking such questions, too. Does the Bush administration have the right answers? Maybe it does, but you really can't blame the Europeans for worrying. The foreign policy line of Bush's 2000 campaign treated "nation-building" and "peacekeeping" as dirty words. Today Bush articulates a more Trumanesque vision of the American global role after Sept. 11, but the old notion of a more limited American role abroad -- "Superpowers don't do windows" -- keeps incongruously popping up. One gets a whiff of it in Bosnia, from which the Pentagon seemingly can't wait to extricate itself. And, more disturbingly, one sees it in Afghanistan, where the administration's aversion to nation-building and peacekeeping, and even to putting substantial numbers of troops on the ground to fight the war, is palpable. The Bush administration may have its reasons for limiting the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan, but the effect so far has been to cast doubt on American willingness to stay anywhere for the long haul, including in a post Hussein Iraq. But Iraq is no "window." It is a historical pivot. Whether a post-Hussein Iraq succeeds or fails will shape the course of Middle Eastern politics, and therefore world politics, both now and for the remainder of this century. Europeans worry about that, and they're right to do so. If it's true that an invasion may be only six months off, this would be a good time to start thinking about D-Day plus 1. Not only Europeans but Americans, too, ought to know the kind of task they're about to undertake. For if the Bush administration is serious, then the United States is on the verge of making a huge commitment in Iraq and the Middle East, not unlike the commitment it made in Japan more than a half-century ago. The idea then was not simply to get rid of a dangerously aggressive Imperial Japanese government, nor merely to deny the Japanese the capacity to launch another Pearl Harbor. It was to rebuild Japanese politics and society, roughly in the American image. American policy in Japan, as in Germany, was "nation-building" on a grand scale, and with no exit strategy. Almost six decades later there are still American troops on Japanese soil. Iraq may not be that different. Surrounded as it is by vulnerable friends such as Turkey, by Arab states of tenuous legitimacy, such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and by such worrisome nations as Iran and Syria, Iraq's success after Hussein's fall will be a vital American interest if ever there was one. If the United States goes into Iraq, it better be ready to stay there for as long as it takes. When President Bush makes it clear to our European allies that he understands this, at least some of them may breathe a little easier. And so should we. The writer, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes a monthly column for The Post. http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR20020719670.2 _776d000362c8633d * IRAQ TURNS TO BELARUS FOR EXPERTISE IN OIL INDUSTRY, MANUFACTURING Hoover's (Financial Times), 19th July Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in English 1358, 19th July/BBC Monitoring Minsk, 19 July: An Iraqi delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister [and Military Industrialization Minister] Abd-al-Tawwab Mulla Huwaysh has said that Baghdad is willing to develop cooperation in the petroleum sphere with Belarus, the press service of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry told Interfax on Friday [19 July]. The Foreign Ministry said that among other issues they discussed the possibility of applying Belarusian expertise in this sphere to improve the efficiency of the Iraqi oil industry, as well as the production of consumer goods using petroleum products. The Iraqi delegation, comprising officials from the ministries of industry, education and scientific research, is taking part in the work of the Belarus-Iraq commission on trade and business cooperation. It has been on a visit to Minsk since 14 July. The talks centred on ways to expand trade and business cooperation as part of the UN Oil for-Food programme. They discussed prospects for Belarusian companies to help restore Iraq's production of tractors, engines, trucks and glass sheets. The Foreign Ministry's press service said they particularly focused on options for the implementation of joint projects aimed at opening enterprises that would assemble engines of the Minsk Engine Plant and Belarusian tractors, as well as upgrade a plant in Ramadi to produce glass packaging. In 2001, Belarusian exports to Iraq totalled 26m dollars. In January-May 2002, exports stood at 11.5m dollars. http://www.nationalpost.com/commentary/story.html?id={BDE8C25B-2E42-4F13-914 3 5958E5BD47EC} * GOODBYE SADDAM, HELLO YOUR MAJESTY by Michael Rubin National Post, Toronto, 25th July Just over a week ago more than 70 exiled Iraqi military officials and Ahmad Chalabi, the head of the Iraqi National Congress, met in London to discuss the ousting of Saddam Hussein. U.S. diplomats, Pentagon officials and members of the Vice-President's staff also attended. The surprise participant was Jordan's Prince Hassan bin Talal. Crown prince for more than three decades, Hassan frequently served as regent while his brother, King Hussein, travelled abroad. As Hussein was, Hassan is known for his moderation, his genuine desire for peace, his humour and his learning. Two weeks before his death, Hussein altered the Jordanian succession to allow his son Abdullah to take the throne. Despite the slight of being passed over, Hassan has painstakingly avoided any action that might undercut his nephew's rule. In his speech to the exiled Iraqi officers, Hassan avoided politics and focused instead upon his family's relationship with Iraq --his cousins ruled the country until 1958. He said his visit was strictly personal, telling reporters: "I'm not carrying any signals." Nevertheless, his address raises intriguing possibilities for Iraq's future. July 14, 1958, is a date most Iraqis wish to forget. Just after dawn, soldiers stormed the palace and murdered the 19-year-old King Faisal II and his family. For a decade after there was sporadic street fighting, mass killings, assassination attempts and violent changes in government. On July 30, 1968, the ethnic chauvinist Ba'ath party seized power. A young functionary named Saddam Hussein took charge of purging dissent, and did so with brutal efficiency, quickly ensconcing himself as Iraq's strongman. Within a month of formally assuming the presidency in 1979, 500 top officials lay dead, victims of Saddam's paranoia. One year later, Saddam launched his first war of aggression, targeting Iran and killing or maiming one million people in the process. In 1988, he executed a brutal ethnic cleansing campaign against Iraq's ethnic minorities, killing up to 182,000 Kurds. Local surveys indicate Saddam used unconventional munitions on at least 280 separate occasions. Two years later, he was at it again, pillaging Kuwait and once more bringing death and destruction to Iraq. It is not surprising, then, that a common quip in teahouses and pool halls throughout Iraq is: "Saddam Hussein is God's curse because the communists killed the king." Iraqis did not grieve over the end of the monarchy, but the violent death of the young king engendered great sympathy. "He was just a young boy. He didn't need to die," one retired Iraqi teacher told me. Most Iraqis today no longer remember their monarchy, but many nevertheless consider it to be the golden age of Iraq. After all, Iraqis can readily compare the post-Hashemite decline of resource-rich Iraq with the relative prosperity brought to a barren and resourceless desert nation by the Jordanian branch of the family. As one drives through the hills near Sarsang in northern Iraq, locals point with pride to the former Hashemite palace (now a hospital) perched on the hillside, while they treat with disdain the ruins of Saddam's ostentatious palaces. Iraqis are not alone in looking back fondly on bygone royalty. In April, Zahir Shah returned to Afghanistan after nearly three decades of exile. While he no longer seeks the crown, the former king has played an invaluable role in Afghan reconciliation. His long exile gave Zahir Shah distance to mediate, and put him above the fray of blood feuds, warlordism and ethnic politics. Equally significant is the rise of Reza Pahlavi. In little more than a year, the son of the late Shah of Iran has risen from relative obscurity to become the leading catalyst for democracy in Iran. Iranians old enough to remember the Shah used to visualize their society as European, on a par with Spain and Greece, but now see their country plunging into economic chaos. Too young to remember the corruption and brutality of the last Shah, they long for the good life of the past. To many Iranians, such sentiment is not empty glorification. In 1977, Iran's per capita income was equivalent to Spain's; two years ago, it hovered near that of the Gaza Strip. A role for royals in Iraq should therefore come as no surprise. While Sharif Ali, cousin of the 19-year old murdered king, pretends to the Iraqi throne, Hassan has spent more time in Iraq, is tried and tested, and enjoys respect and legitimacy throughout the Middle East. At the London conference, Chalabi lauded Hassan as "a friend of the Iraqi people." For the ruling families of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, a place for royals in Iraq may be more palatable than primacy for republicans. Should he be interested, Hassan's experience and lineage -- Hashemites claim direct descent from the Prophet Mohammed -- give him the unique ability to usher a post-Saddam Iraq back into the family of nations, with him chairing a future constitutional convention and overseeing reconciliation. With Saddam's days numbered, Hassan's appearance in London may signal that Iraqis will have a future far brighter than their past. http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,757709,00.html * JORDAN PRINCE TOUTED TO SUCCEED SADDAM by Brian Whitaker The Guardian, 19th July As US officials and Iraqi opposition groups squabble over possible successors to Saddam Hussein, Prince Hassan of neighbouring Jordan is emerging as a surprise contender. The idea, which has support in the Pentagon and among conservative thinkers in the US, envisages the prince rising above Iraqi factionalism as a compromise figurehead, or even as king. Some argue that his involvement could also ease tensions in Washington, where the state department and CIA have been at loggerheads with Congress and the Pentagon over Ahmad Chalabi, the controversial leader of the Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella opposition group funded by US taxpayers. "Prince Hassan is someone who has not been poisoned by the past 40 years of chaos in Iraq and is perhaps the only person who can transcend the ethnic and political complexities," said Michael Rubin of the Washington thinktank the American Enterprise Institute. Hassan, 55, was crown prince of Jordan for many years and effectively ruled the country during the terminal illness of his eldest brother, the late King Hussein. But a few weeks before his death in 1999, King Hussein removed him from the succession and nominated his own son, now King Abdullah. On April 8 this year, Prince Hassan had talks at the Pentagon with Paul Wolfowitz, the US deputy secretary of defence. The subject was never disclosed but since then he has begun to assume a higher political profile. This culminated in his dramatic "coming out" last week when - surrounded by TV cameras - he arrived unexpectedly at a conference of exiled Iraqi officers in London. It was the first time that a high-ranking Arab had publicly associated himself with the Iraqi opposition. His move appears to have been well received. Speculation has been heightened by the fact that the Jordanian royal family is related to the Iraqi royal family, whose last king, Faisal II, was deposed and assassinated in 1958. INSIDE IRAQ http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=7/18/02&Cat=4&Num=005 * SADDAM SAYS U.S. WON'T BE ABLE TO OUST GOVERNMENT Tehran Times, 18th July BAGHDAD -- President Saddam Hussein said on Wednesday in a televised speech marking Iraq's July 17 revolution that the United States and its allies would not be able to topple his government. Saddam, marking the 34th anniversary of the revolution which brought his ruling Baath Party to power, also said Iraqis were well-prepared and equipped to defend their country against any military assault, Reuters said. "Temmuz (July revolution) returns to say to all evil tyrants and oppressors of the world: you will never defeat me this time. Never! even if you come together from all over the world, and invite all the devils as well, to stand by you," Saddam said. Saddam, the man who has ruled Iraq with an iron fist for 23 years, piled on the war of words with his main 1991 Persian Gulf War foe, Washington. "Temmuz also returns armed with swords, bow and spear, carrying its shield or gun and cannon...or poised in its battle trench which may, through caution and alertness, save life from schemes, conspiracies, and perfidy, and protect all our dear men." His remarks coincided with mounting speculation that the United States might use its military might to try to oust him. U.S. President George W. Bush said last week Washington would use all tools at its disposal to topple Saddam. He has branded Iraq part of an "axis of evil" supporting terrorism and developing weapons of mass destruction. Iraq has repeatedly denied the U.S. charges. Saddam urged Iraqis to "fight with valor, chivalry, patience and resolve, as you have always done when forced." He said if Washington attacked, "Iraq will emerge eventually triumphant. "The others need only to realize and learn the lesson, and know that the principles, high interests and national security cannot be protected without sacrifices". The Iraqi leader prayed for God to protect Iraq "against the schemes of the devil or of those to whom the devil is master", in clear reference to the United States. His address, [which was] carried live by state television and radio and lasted for 40 minutes, made no reference to Iraq's relations with the UN Security Council and UN inspections of Baghdad's weapons of mass destruction. Iraq and the United Nations failed last week to reach an agreement to resume weapons inspections after intensive talks between UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri. U.S. officials have accused Iraq of rebuilding sites where they had produced weapons of mass destruction after UN arms experts left the country in December 1998. The inspectors left just before a U.S.-British bombing campaign intended to punish Baghdad for not cooperating with them. Iraq's Parliament voted unanimously on Monday to back military preparations to repel any U.S. attack aimed at toppling the Iraqi government. http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/WireFeed/WireFeed&c =WireFeed&cid=1026852015326&p=1014232938216 * FIVE REPORTED DEAD IN ATTACK ON IRAQ by Hassan Hafidh Financial Times, 19th July BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq says U.S. and British planes yesterday attacked civilian targets killing five people and wounding 17 others in the south of the country. "At 11:15 p.m. local time (8.15 a.m British time) yesterday evil American and British warplanes violated our airspace coming from Saudi Arabia and carried out 34 sorties," an Iraqi military spokesman said in a statement on the official Iraqi News Agency (INA) on Friday. A statement on the website for U.S. Central Command in Florida, which oversees U.S. military activity in the Gulf area, said coalition aircraft struck a military target in the southern "no-fly" zone with precision-guided weapons. "In response to recent Iraqi hostile acts against Coalition aircraft monitoring the Southern No-Fly Zone, Operation SOUTHERN WATCH Coalition aircraft used precision-guided weapons today to strike a military cable repeater station in southern Iraq..." Britain's Ministry of Defence said it had nothing to add to the U.S. statement. Military activity in the region has become more frequent in recent months amid speculation that the United States might invade Iraq to oust President Saddam Hussein, whose country has the second largest oil reserves in the world and who is accused by the United States of developing weapons of mass destruction. [.....] "The enemy attacked civilian installations in the province of Qadissiya (Diwaniya), killing five citizens and wounding 17 others," the Iraqi spokesman said. He said a house was destroyed and another was damaged during the attack in the centre of Diwaniya city, some 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad. The U.S. Central Command said it never targets civilian populations or infrastructure and that strikes in the "no-fly" zones are executed as a self-defense measure in response to hostile Iraqi threats and acts against Coalition forces. "The last Coalition strike in the Southern No-Fly Zone was against a mobile radar unit associated with a mobile surface-to-air missile launcher on July 14, 2002," it said. But a senior ruling Baath Party official said that there was no Iraqi military activity in the area where Western planes dropped their guided missiles. "The evil American administration has yet added another crime to their record which is full of crimes when it attacked a residential quarter where there is no military activity...," Muhssein al-Khafaji told Iraqi television. Khafaji said a family, consisting of a child and her father and mother, were killed during the assault. The two other victims were from the next house, he said. The television showed pictures of destroyed houses and rescue teams were digging to take out the victims and save the wounded. It also showed some of the wounded laying in a near-by hospital. It said a funeral procession [had been] organised in the main street of Diwaniya on Friday where participants shouted anti-American and British slogans. The television said that the people in the province condemned the United States and Britain and expressed support for the leadership of President Saddam Hussein to defend Iraq. Friday's assault was the third reported by Iraq in a week. Baghdad said one civilian was killed and 13 others wounded in two raids by U.S. and British planes on civilian targets in the south of the country on Saturday and Sunday. The U.S. military said U.S. planes bombed Iraqi air defence facilities after coalition aircraft came under fire and were threatened by Iraqi air-defence units. Saddam said on Wednesday in a televised speech marking Iraq's July 17 revolution that Washington and its allies would not be able to topple his government. IRAQI/INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2002-07/19/content_488137.htm * IRAQ LODGES PROTEST AGAINST US FOR REFUSING TO GRANT VISAS BAGHDAD, July 18 (Xinhuanet) -- Iraq on Thursday protested to the United Nations against the United States for refusing to grant visas to an Iraqi delegation that was supposed to take part in the preparatory meeting of the International Criminal Court in New York on July 1, the official Iraqi News Agency (INA) reported. "The US refusal to issue visas to Iraqi delegation members has prevented them from playing their role in the meetings sponsored bythe United Nations," Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri Ahmed said in a letter to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Thursday. Ahmed urged Annan to intervene and demand the United States "to respect its obligations and commitments to the United Nations" and stop from placing obstacles and preventing Iraqi delegations to attend UN meetings in the future, the INA said. Iraq has no foreign relations with the United States and the two countries have been sworn enemies since the 1991 Gulf War, during which the US-led multinational coalition army defeated Iraq and evicted Iraqi troops out of Kuwait after a seven-month occupation. The Iraqi foreign minister has complained that the United States delayed to grant visas for his delegation members to engage in talks with the United Nations in New York. Consequently, Iraq requested to have talks with the UN chief in Vienna instead of New York, where the first two rounds of talks between Iraq and the United Nations in March and May were held. Thethird round of talks between the two sides were held in the Austrian capital of Vienna early this month. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=16492200 * MALAYSIA CALLS US ACTION AGAINST IRAQ UNDEMOCRATIC Times of India (from AFP), 19th July KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad on Friday slammed proposed US military action against Iraq, saying it would be unjust and undemocratic. Mahathir said using military force to unseat Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would only serve to provoke greater hatred and dent the Islamic world's efforts to show the "moderate face" of Islam. "The quarrel is with Saddam Hussein, they think he is a dictator. It is up to the people of Iraq to change their government if they can but they cannot," he told an international Islamic conference here. "But because they cannot, it is not fair to punish them. You punish people who have no means of changing their conditions. That is I think unjust. "We don't think other governments have a right, no matter how powerful they are, to change the government of another country. That is an undemocratic thing to do." The veteran Asian leader, who is to step down October 2003, questioned why the US had picked on Iraq when there were other countries in the world which also needed a change in government. "When you focus on Iraq, the people who will suffer are the helpless people of Iraq and of course, you are going to arouse a lot of ill-feelings," he said. "We pray and hope that it will not be done... it will make it difficult for us to show the moderate face of Islam." [.....] http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=7/20/02&Cat=2&Num=046 * FRANCE OPENS COURT INQUIRY INTO GULF WAR SYNDROME Tehran Times, 20th July PARIS -- Paris prosecutors have opened a judicial investigation to determine whether French veterans suffering from Persian Gulf War syndrome were victims of negligence, court sources said Friday. Prosecutors in mid-June handed the inquiry for "manslaughter and unintentional injuries" to examining magistrate Marie-Odile Bertella Geffroy, a specialist on public health issues, "Le Parisien" newspaper reported. About a dozen French veterans have filed civil complaints, prompting prosecutors to launch an investigation, court sources said. Persian Gulf War syndrome is a term popularly applied to a vast range of symptoms among veterans of the 1990-91 conflict against Iraq, from memory loss, chronic fatigue and dizziness to swollen joints, depression and lack of concentration. About 100,000 U.S. troops as well as thousands of British, Canadian and French troops who took part in the operation against Baghdad have reported one or more of these problems. A French association for Persian Gulf War victims, Avigolfe, says that eight French soldiers suffering from the syndrome have died. Some 25,000 French troops served in the Persian Gulf War. Several explanations for the syndrome, ranging from exposure to depleted uranium from artillery shells to vaccines and poison gas antidotes, have been put forward. The Paris magistrate is expected to begin calling witnesses to testify in September. NORTHERN IRAQ/SOUTHERN KURDISTAN http://www.guardian.co.uk/analysis/story/0,3604,757853,00.html * HOMELESS AND FRIENDLESS by Owen Bowcott The Guardian, 19th July The war against terrorism has been hard going for the Kurds. One of the world's largest ethnic groups not to have a home state, they form a minority - and face varying degrees of intolerance - across the Middle East, in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. The west's twin campaigns against al-Qaida and Saddam Hussein threaten to undermine the Kurds' nationalist aspirations. Pressure from Washington on the protected Kurdish enclaves in northern Iraq to provide frontline fighters to remove "the butcher of Baghdad" has been widely reported. So far, the Iraqi Kurds have hesitated to compromise their precarious autonomy in order to satisfy the Bush administration's enthusiasm for a new world order. Little has changed for the Kurds of Iran and Syria. But the impact of the war against terrorism on the Kurds of Turkey has been more subtle. The Kurdistan Workers party (PKK), which has begun the process of putting away its weapons and transforming itself into a political movement, has been added to a European Union list of banned organisations. Turkey's Kurds normally look to Europe for helpful human rights interventions while hoping that accession to the EU will at result in better treatment for minorities. For the PKK, renouncing the gun has been a protracted process. The outmanoeuvred organisation began winding down its guerrilla campaign aimed at carving out a homeland in south-east Turkey and northern Iraq in 1999 after Turkish special forces seized the PKK's fugitive leader, Abdullah Ocalan. Two years ago the PKK - a secular, Marxist group with no known connections to al-Qaida - announced a ceasefire. Europe's condemnation of the organisation has been a demoralising blow, particularly for the Kurdish diaspora which tries to promote the cause of independence. The conclusion that democratic politics pay better dividends than violence is now being re-examined. The enthusiasm among western states for drawing up lists of outlawed groups predates September 11: a ban on the PKK and 20 other groups was announced by the home secretary under the Terrorism Act in March 2001. Civil rights lawyers argue the legislation is so restrictive that had it been in force during the apartheid era the African National Congress would not have been able to organise in Britain. The fervour with which banned lists have been assembled since President Bush launched the war against terrorism has intensified. In the scramble to coordinate security, there has been sustained lobbying from some states to ensure local opponents become outcasts. Turkey has been a persuasive lobbyist. "This EU ban...criminalises the whole of the Kurdish people," says Remzi Kartal, a Brussels based member of the executive council of the exiled Kurdish National Congress (KNC). "If Europe and the international community try to close down the liberation movement in the same way as the Turkish government does, then that leaves no alternative but to begin the war again." His threat is significant. The KNC is the umbrella organisation which brings together numerous Kurdish political groups. The PKK was a leading member until it formally dissolved itself in April. The movement reinvented itself as the Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (Kadek), this time promising: "No bombs. No violence." Kadek is now part of the KNC. The Turkish military response to the EU ban was to launch its summer search-and-destroy operations against pockets of PKK guerrillas in Tunceli, eastern Turkey, and into Iraq. Another part of the establishment, possibly the intelligence service, MIT, began leaking lists of allegedly pro-Kurdish organisations it would also like banned. Among names which surfaced in an Ankara paper were the Kurdish Human Rights Project, a London-based civil rights group, the European Council of Churches and the charity Medicins sans Frontieres. All three condemn the use of violence. On the other hand, Turkey's parliament - facing an early election to end months of political instability triggered by Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's illness - has voted to lift emergency rule in two predominantly Kurdish provinces, endorsing a decision by the military dominated national security council. The EU insists that emergency rule in four remaining provinces ends before Turkey opens membership talks with Brussels. The European parliament in Strasbourg is meanwhile trying to impose a requirement on Turkey that it opens up dialogue with Kurdish organisations. Under the "Copenhagen criteria" for joining the EU, Turkey must also remove restrictions on the use of the Kurdish language. This and other reforms are cooling the enthusiasm of some Turkish politicians and military officials for Europe. Channelling efforts into constitutional politics would not be so difficult for the Kurds in Turkey if they could organise politically. The movement has encouraged demonstrations by students demanding lessons in Kurdish, but that usually results in mass arrests. Language reforms, promised by successive Turkish politicians, have never materialised. The PKK ceasefire has elicited little response from the authorities. Leyla Zana and three other Kurdish MPs from the Democracy party have been imprisoned since 1994 for allegedly having links with the PKK. The European court of human rights again condemned their detention last month. One problem is the curious configuration of the Turkish state, in which the national security council plays a pivotal role. In 1997 the military ordered the Islamist party then in power to resign, effectively a coup in which tanks stayed inside the barracks. The Turkish general staff is opposed to dismantling the geographical boundaries or the secular nature of the state, and the Turkish army remains a key regional ally for the US, Israel, Britain and Nato. Airbases, such as Incerlik, are used daily by UK and US air patrols monitoring the no-fly zone in northern Iraq, and would be vital for an attack on Saddam Hussein. With such high stakes in play, the interests of the Kurds - in both Turkey and northern Iraq - are in danger of slipping down the west's diplomatic agenda. _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss To contact the list manager, email casi-discuss-admin@lists.casi.org.uk All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk