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Hello, all. This statement below is fully consonant with what I said. Most reporting on the subject (including what you see in the papers these days) confuses the two distinct effects. The 1973 price hike hit the United States hard, but it hit Europe harder, even though only the Netherlands was subject to the embargo. The last time (last summer) that Iraq turned off the taps, Saudi Arabia scrambled to make sure there was not even a slight short-term effect. I assume something similar will happen again. In solidarity, Rahul Mahajan >Hallo all again, >Here is what the US Department of Energy says about the impact of the 1973 oil >embargo, it is off their website: >ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION > >EIA Reports > >U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY >WASHINGTON DC 20585 > >FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE >September 3, 1998 > > 25th Anniversary of the 1973 Oil Embargo: Where Are We Now? > >Since the 1973 oil embargo disrupted U.S. and world energy markets, per capita >use of petroleum in America has dropped, but oil imports have risen to record >levels, well above those seen 25 years ago. > >These and 28 other major energy trends are reported in 25th Anniversary of the >1973 Oil Embargo: Energy Trends Since the First Major U.S. Energy Crisis >prepared by the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department of >Energy. The report is being released today in advance of the embargo's 25th >anniversary in October. The year 1973 is still remembered for a >sharp run-up in energy prices, energy shortages, and long lines at many >gasoline stations. > > >===== Original Message From Rahul Mahajan <email@example.com> ===== > >Hello, all. In light of all the speculation about a possible oil embargo on > >the United States by Iraq (which will certainly not be supported by anyone > >else, with the extremely unlikely possible exception of Iran), I thought a > >historical note about the effect of such embargoes. > > > >Many people, when considering 1973, confuse two separate actions. One was a > >quadrupling of the price of oil by OPEC, which non-OPEC members went along > >with. The other was a specific embargo targeted at the United States and > >the Netherlands for their support of Israel. Although Saudi Arabia > >participated in this embargo, Iran did not. In any case, the effects of the > >embargo itself were negligible, although the effect of the price hike was > >great. The reason for this is the obvious fact that oil is fungible. The > >United States went to other sources, did third-party deals with European > >countries, and suffered no more than any other country, and less than many, > >since the US is itself an oil producer. > > > >Even if all of OPEC cut off the United States, the effect on oil prices for > >American companies would be very slight. Prices at the pump might rise, but > >that would just be because of domestic oil companies taking advantage of > >the situation. And, of course, what is being tentatively discussed is a > >symbolic one-month embargo, which most OPEC spokespeople have strongly >opposed. > > > >In solidarity, > > > >Rahul Mahajan > > > > > >_______________________________________________ > >Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. > >To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss > >To contact the list manager, email firstname.lastname@example.org > >All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk > > >_______________________________________________ >Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. >To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss >To contact the list manager, email email@example.com >All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk _______________________________________________ Sent via the discussion list of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-discuss To contact the list manager, email firstname.lastname@example.org All postings are archived on CASI's website: http://www.casi.org.uk