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Re: [casi] turn off the oil tap?



Hi Phillipa,
The embargo idea has been bandied about alot this week, but no major oil
producer apart from Iraq has taken it seriously, even Iraq may have just
brought it up for rhetorical purposes. Opec doesn't have the market share it
had in 1973, and in real terms alot of them , especially Saudi Arabia, are
economically poorer than when they were in those days.Even Iran could only
say they would do it only if every-one else does. It would be a nice idea
even just for symbolic reasons to say to the US "we are still a force to be
reckoned with," but I doubt the Saudis or any-one else are willing to put
their money where their mouth is, so to speak. That's because Arab oil
economies need their oil revenue at the moment more than they ever did. In
real terms the price of oil has stagnated while their populations have grown
rapidly so there's less to go around. Western economies also depend alot
less on oil for economic growth than in the early 1970s. So all I'm saying
is that the oil embargo weapon might not be the powerful weapon it seems to
be.

However, the US economy is going through a fragile recovery, and the last
thing it wants is a sharp spike in oil prices that could blow it all away.
Therefore, even just a hint of some supply disruptions could get something
meaningful out of the US in regards to the Palestinians, the price of oil
shot up alot this week which could partly explain Bush's shift in attitude
towards the Palestinians on thursday, but would it change their Iraq policy?
Probabably not I would imagine.
Best,
Peter


Subject: [casi] turn off the oil tap?


> >I think the proposed plan that Iraq and possibly Iran, could "turn off
the
> oil tap" to the US (which now receives 15% of its oil from Iraq)as a form
of
> protest against Israel, should be discussed by this email list. Given that
> Japan is 75% dependent on Gulf oil, Japan could step in as a major
recipient
> of Iraqi oil, Philippa Winkler
>



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