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Aviation Weekly article-battle plans, plse circulate widely

Please circulate this far and wide. It shows:
1.  a 2 front battle plan, waiting to pounce on Iraq like a cat on a mouse,
also  plans for a no-drive zone in Iraq (ie, bombing traffic)
2. shows how far ahead the US was in planning, or how quickly they've been
able to mobilize, given that this article was published only a week after the
Sept 11, attack,
3. lack of precision mapping for proper targeting in Afghanistan,
4. notes that Iraq CAN legally have missiles with up to 150 mile range.
Philippa Winkler

U.S. To Move First, Plan Details Later.
                     UNITED States. -- Air Force; MILITARY readiness
                     Aviation Week & Space Technology, 9/24/2001, Vol. 155
Issue 13, p40,
                     2p, 1 map
                     Fulghum, David A.; Wall, Robert
                     Focuses on the transfer of United States military forces
into the Middle East and South Asia. Use of the multinational 'Bright
Star' exercise; Reason behind the move of the US; Uncertainties
encountered in the US Air Force operational planners.

                                                                   [Go To

Section: Military Response


 Defense officials say two equally large operations are involved: one you can
see and one you can't.

U.S. military forces are moving into the Middle East and South Asia, a flow
that will accelerate markedly over the next two weeks.

The multinational ``Bright Star'' exercise, slated for late September, will be
used to move additional forces into Egypt that will stay on in the region
after the exercise is completed, Air Force officials said.

The overall effort is to pre-position more supplies, aircraft and
troops--including covert forces--in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Diego
Garcia in the Indian Ocean. France has agreed to let the
U.S. use its large military base at Djibouti. U.S. Air Force F-16 units from
Misawa, Japan, have had their deployments to Southwest Asia extended. New
movements include F-15 units from Okinawa.
Heavy bomber units, including B-1s with enhanced electronic warfare and
electronic countermeasures, are being shifted to the three main regional
bomber bases--Fairford, England; Jedda, Saudi Arabia,
and Diego Garcia. An effort is underway to get overflight permission from
countries between them and Afghanistan.

THE WORDING of such permissions can cause wild gyrations in flight plans. For
example, bombers flying from Fairford during the Kosovo campaign could not
overfly France on the way to the target, so they had to fly well into the
Atlantic, through the Straits of Gibraltar. Only after launching their weapons
could they cross France.

Bargaining with Pakistan for U.S. access to bases continues. Some U.S. defense
officials contend that it wants to trade for additional F-16s, more foreign
aid and greater tolerance of its nuclear programs.
India was the first nation to offer bases to the U.S., but a number of
governments have asserted that they would opt out of any coalition to support
the U.S. if Indian or Israeli bases are used.

There appear to be two operations going on. ``One you do see and one you
don't, and the latter is as large as or larger than the first,'' a senior
defense official said. Covert forces from the U.S. and Britain
have been moving into the area for some time, but the U.S. wants to get Moslem
forces involved, particularly those of Turkey. ``They have great special
forces and they would be very good at this kind of operation.'' Such forces
are to make raids, lasting from a day to a week, into Afghanistan.

For some time, Afghanistan's Northern Alliance (the Taliban's main opponents)
has benefited from an airborne resupply route from Dushanbe, Tajikistan, to
Bagram AB north of Kabul. Arms and food are
lifted in by Russian-built, twin-engine An-24s and An-32s transports flying at
night. Uzbekistan has a small air force detachment in Tajikistan that also
apparently operates in support of the Northern Alliance. Supplies from India
also use this route. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, with prodding from
Russia, are now offering use of their bases as staging areas for attacks by
U.S. special forces. Pakistan would likely host heavy tanker and cargo

Nevertheless, among U.S. Air Force operational planners ``there is still
uncertainty about what to do,'' a senior defense official said. For now,
``they'll move into the region and then wait until there is an
opportunity for attack,'' he said. There is a consensus that ``something very
visible [even if it is only symbolic] has to happen soon.'' Moreover, there is
a widening of U.S. planning to include Iraq as
reports are substantiated that Iraqi officials met regularly with terrorists
and supplied money, passports and logistics. That likely would entail more
intensive air operations against Iraq, including establishment
of a ``no-drive zone'' that would subject any motor traffic in Iraq to attack.

MEANWHILE, THERE are some near-term problems for the Air Force.

The conflict is likely to highlight shortfalls within the National Imagery and
Mapping Agency (NIMA) whose new chief, Air Force Lt. Gen. (ret.) James R.
Clapper, has been told to restore morale and
quickly complete a key tool needed for precision bombing. The agency has been
producing only a third of the critical digital point precision databases that
military commanders have requested. These databases are the equivalent of
finely defined maps that show the exact targeting coordinates, in
three-dimensions and within 9 meters, for any point. However, much of the
effort has not been completed. The regional commanders-in-chief needed 9,000
of these maps, but NIMA is still 5,000 short, a U.S. intelligence specialists

EQUIPMENT FOR A U.S. Army division headquarters is on the way to supplement
that for a brigade already in Qatar, said Lt. Gen. Paul Mikolashek, head of
U.S. Central Command's army forces. He spoke about bolstering forces in the
region just prior to the attack on New York and Washington. Added to another
brigade's worth of supplies in Kuwait, that puts enough weaponry and
supplies to fill out a U.S. division. Equipment for another Army brigade and a
Marine brigade are on ships in the region.

The first 16 production Patriot PAC-3 missiles are now available to equip two
Patriot batteries in Kuwait and another two in Saudi Arabia as soon as they
are available. The upgraded Patriot provides a more effective defense against
tactical ballistic missiles than the current PAC-2. ``We have gone
through all the PAC-3 system upgrades over there in terms of the software that
can accommodate the missiles,'' Mikolashek said. C-5s were flying into
Huntsville, Ala.'s Redstone Arsenal within two days
of the attack on the U.S.

Defense officials acknowledge a regional missile threat.

``We have determined that the possibility exists that [Iraq] would have some
Scuds,'' Mikolashek said. ``For us to ignore that possibility I think would be
wrong. [Saddam Hussein] is authorized, by the way, under the agreements after
the [1990-91 Persian Gulf] war to have missiles with ranges of up to
150 km., and he has these.''

Iraq also has been developing the liquid-fueled Al-Samoud, which is thought to
be ready for operational use. U.S. officials believe it has at least a 180-km.
(112-mi.) range, well over the 150-km. limit set by U.N. sanctions. Iraq also
has shown a small number of solid-fuel Abadil-100 ballistic missiles.

As to what antiterrorist operations are likely to involve, there is at least
consideration of raids deep into other countries involving aerial insertion,
resupply and extraction supported by bombing and strike aircraft, defense
officials said.

``Air drops are a distinct possibility,'' a senior defense official said.
Operationally, ``the options being evaluated are still rather wide, ranging
from significant air bombing to the use of special forces and
even regular ground units,'' a senior aerospace industry official said.

Professionals with long experience in dealing with terrorists say that in
grappling with the immediate problem of finding terrorists, U.S. officials
should not alienate friendly nations in the Middle East and
South Asia, nor should they forget about the nations that provide sanctuary
and support for terrorists.

``The important thing is allies, allies, allies,'' said R. James Woolsey,
former director of central intelligence. ``We badly need the support of
moderate Moslem regimes and individuals abroad to carry on an effective war
against terrorism.''

He and others say that catching or killing those who perpetrated the attacks
on the U.S. doesn't solve the problem.

``THE FOCUS HAS TO BE on dismantling the organizations,'' said Larry C.
Johnson, former deputy director of the State Dept.'s office of
counter-terrorism. ``It will be like dismantling Nazi Germany.
Capturing [Osama bin Laden] will be illusory'' without a follow-up campaign
against those who supported him.

``I have one slogan to offer,'' Woolsey said. ``It's the regime, stupid. [bin
Laden and his organization] are mosquitoes. They carry a lethal disease. You
don't deal with malaria by swatting the mosquitoes. You drain the swamp.''

On the other hand, the U.S. is looking for converts.

``If a regime that backed terrorism in the past wants to change--take the case
of Iran--we very much welcome their conversion to antiterrorism,'' Woolsey
said. Those that are hopeless--Saddam Hussein and the Baath Party in Iraq and
``probably the Taliban'' in Afghanistan--need to be replaced, he said,
perhaps by the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan and the Kurds and Shiites in

``That's part of the world, for logistics and other reasons, where it's
difficult to see a lot of American troops being there for any substantial
period of time,'' Woolsey said.

One new factor that may be a help in the war against terrorism is the new
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Air Force Gen. Richard B. Myers.
``We're fortunate to have Dick Myers coming in as chairman of the JCS,'' said
another Air Force general. ``He's got a strong operational background,
he's respected on Capitol Hill and politically savvy from his time as vice
chairman, and he's technically astute. He won't get wound up in a solution too
complicated to work.''

One of those solutions is expected to be the rapid improvement of intelligence
gathering and its direct application to finding and killing elusive targets.


By David A. Fulghum, Washington and Robert Wall, Washington

Copyright 2001 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Copyright of Aviation Week &
Space Technology is the property
of McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to
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without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may
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individual use.
Source: Aviation Week & Space Technology, 9/24/2001, Vol. 155 Issue 13, p40,
2p, 1 map.
Item Number: 5285764


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