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(1) EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT & IRAQ In response to Ornella's question "Any ideas?", one that comes to mind is to have someone summarise the report for this discussion list. Having done that, we can compile a list of questions or statements. Members of the list can then direct them to their MEPs. Ideally they would be sent to MEPs with some request for action ("please inform..." or "please vote for...", etc.). I, unfortunately, don't have time to do any of this, but if someone had a chance to read and summarise the report that could start things. (2) UN COMPENSATION FUND I've performed some calculations using the data presented in http://www.unog.ch/uncc/status.htm (27 June 2001) to estimate the outstanding liabilities that Iraq will face under the compensation process. To do so, I have extrapolated linearly from the past: that is, I have assumed that the ratio of dollars awarded to dollars claimed will continue into the future. I've done this in two ways, which I call "unconditional" and "conditional": (i) The unconditional approach uses one ratio, that of the total compensation awarded to date relative to that sought in the claims processed to date. Applying this to the compensation sought by unprocessed claims yields $71 billion. (ii) The conditional approach calculates ratios for each category of claim. It then applies each ratio to that category's outstanding claims. The figures for each category are then summed for a total of $75 billion. In my view, the conditional approach is a better one as it uses information contained in the categories about the extent to which settled claims differ from future claims. To explain, the data table shows that category A, B and C claims are completely resolved; further, in all three cases, the award ratios are higher than those in the categories with claims outstanding. Therefore, a technique that applies estimates future claims by treating all of the past equally, may be misleading. In any case, the two techniques yield similar results. I have made one inference about the data available on http://www.unog.ch/uncc/status.htm. The table presented there contained a 0 in the cell corresponding to compensation sought by F4 claims resolved. This is clearly incorrect: 105 F4 claims for $0 each would not have been submitted. I replaced this value with $700 million by assuming that the total value of F4 claims had not changed since 29 May 2001 (google.com's cached version of the UNCC page has this version). This inference leaves open one small question: four claims seem to have disappeared between May and June. I've notified the UNCC's webmaster about the error and will provide an update on these calculations when it is fixed if there is a significant difference. Finally, the above allows an estimate of outstanding payments. Iraq certainly owes $23 billion (the difference between that awarded to date, and that paid) and, according to the estimate above, will owe another $75 billion. These sum to $98 billion. To this must be added the foreign debt acquired by Iraq prior to 1990, estimated to now be worth about $120 billion (see http://www.cam.ac.uk/societies/casi/info/alnasrawi.html). In sum, these amount to about $218 billion, or about $9,000 per Iraqi. Best, Colin Rowat work | 269 Mercer Street, Room 710 | Department of Economics | New York University | New York, NY 10003, USA | (212) 998 8939 | http://homepages.nyu.edu/~cir2 | firstname.lastname@example.org home | 116 W. 226 St. | Bronx NY 10463, USA | email@example.com tel/fax | (917) 517 5840 (mobile) | (707) 221 3672 (fax) | firstname.lastname@example.org (SMS) autumn | Department of Economics | The University of Birmingham | Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email email@example.com Full details of CASI's various lists can be found on the CASI website: http://www.casi.org.uk