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Dear CASI I have generated these stats to be posted to the New Statesman website in support of an article I'm helping Mark Thomas with. Any comments welcome. Best wishes Eric STATISTICS REGARDING THE SANCTIONS ON IRAQ Dr. Eric Herring Senior Lecturer in International Politics Department of Politics University of Bristol 10 Priory Road Bristol BS8 1TU England, UK Tel. +44-(0)117-928-8582 Fax +44-(0)117-973-2133 http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Politics eric.herring@bristol.ac.uk The main sources for the statistics below are the UN Office of the Iraq Programme (OIP) http://www.un.org/Depts/oip/latest/basic/figures.html, the International Institute for Strategic Studies 'Military Balance', and 'The Economist Pocket World in Figures'. Thanks to Glen Rangwala and other contributors to the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI) email discussion list <http://www.casi.org.uk>. It must be emphasised that, aside from the Oil For Food (OFF) Programme figures, all of the figures must be treated as 'ballpark' approximations. Throughout I have shown how I calculated my figures and where helpful have indicated magnitudes of uncertainty. For an overall analysis of the sanctions, see my article 'Between Iraq and a Hard Place: A Critique of the British Government's Case for UN Economic Sanctions'. This will be published in the 'Review of International Studies', volume 28, number 1 (January 2002). If you wish a copy in the interim, I am happy to email an electronic version. All figures below are as of 31 March 2001 unless otherwise indicated. Total Iraqi population: 22 million Population under control of GoI: 19.1million Population in northern governorates: 2.9 million Iraqi GDP 1989 in 1988-90 US$: $2,660 (similar to Malaysia $2,202 - top 60). Iraqi GDP would look higher if calculated in current US$. OVERALL FIGURES Iraqi total GDP between imposition of sanctions (start Aug 1990) and end of currently available figures (end March 1991) [10.66 years]: $38,602m of OFF-approved oil sales plus perhaps $4,000m illegal oil sales plus perhaps $4,000m non-oil economic activity. Total $46,602m. Non-oil economic activity is particularly hard to estimate. Looking at OFF goods arrivals and dividing the relevant OFF figure by either 2.9 million people (the UN administered northern governorates), 19.1 million people (the centre and south where the Iraqi government administers the OFF programme with UN monitoring) or 22 million people (the country as a whole) as appropriate, I arrive at the total value of OFF goods per head as follows: - Overall (North, Centre, South) $549 - Northern governates all sectors (excluding food and medicine purchased by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide, and oil spare parts) $210 - Food $305 (including items purchased for the three northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Centre and South food handling $29 - Health $56 (including items purchased for the three northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Oil spares $30 - Centre and South electricity $33 - Centre and South water/sanitation $23 - Centre and South agriculture $43 - Centre and South education $8 - Centre and South telecom/transport $3 - Centre and South housing $10 Per person, other relevant figures are: - $1,193: value of contracts received by OIP - $794: value of contracts approved by Sanctions Committee - $174: value of contracts approved by OIP 'fast track' - $156: value of contracts on hold What comes across is just how puny the amounts are. They seem even more puny when calculated as an amount per person per year of sanctions. ANNUAL FIGURES FOR THE 10.66 YEARS OF SANCTIONS GDP per capita per year: $46,602 divided by 22m people divided by 10.66 years equals $199. This puts it roughly 10th worst in the world between Sierra Leone (9th worst at $182 in 1995) and Nepal (11th at $205 in 1995). The rankings are based on 1995: 171 countries with population of at least 1m or GDP of at least $1bn. Hence Iraq slipped from about 60th at worst to about 163rd. It is a 7% of Iraq's 1989 GDP. Weirdly, 'The Economist' calculates Iraq's GDP as $17,000m, and a GDP of $836 per capita in 1995, but only by factoring in $14,500 of oil exports from 1989! I arrived at these figures by dividing the above figures by 10.66 (ie the 10 years and 8 months of the sanctions from beginning August 1990 to end March 2001). The OFF figures per person per year average are: - Overall (North, Centre, South) $52 - Northern governates all sectors (excluding food and medicine purchased by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide, and oil spare parts) $20 - Food $29 (including items purchased for the three northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Centre and South food handling $3 - Health $5 (including items purchased for the three northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Oil spares $3 - Centre and South electricity $3 - Centre and South water/sanitation $2 - Centre and South agriculture $4 - Centre and South education 75 cents - Centre and South telecom/transport 28 cents - Centre and South housing 94 cents ANNUAL FIGURES FOR THE 4.66 YEARS OF OFF Although the OFF resolution (SCR 986) was passed by the Security Council in April 1995 and was accepted by the Iraqi government in May 1996, OFF supplies only began to arrive in Iraq in 1997 and only in significant quantities from the Spring of 1998. The calculations below are for start of OFF Phase I in December 1996 through to end March 2001. GDP per capita per year of OFF: $46,602 divided by 22m people divided by 4.66 years equals $454. Equals 17% of Iraq's 1989 GDP. Looking at arrivals and dividing the relevant OFF figure by either 2.9 million people, 19.1 million people or 22 million people, and then dividing again by 4.66 years I arrive at the total value of OFF goods per head per OFF year as follows: - Overall (North, Centre, South) $118 - Northern governates all sectors (excluding food and medicine purchased by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide, and oil spare parts) $45 - Food $65 (including items purchased for the three northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Centre and South food handling $6 - Health $12 (including items purchased for the three northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Oil spares $6 - Centre and South electricity $7 - Centre and South water/sanitation $5 - Centre and South agriculture $9 - Centre and South education $2 - Centre and South telecom/transport 64 cents - Centre and South housing $2 Again, per person per year of OFF - $256: value of contracts received by OIP - $170: value of contracts approved by Sanctions Committee - $37: value of contracts approved by OIP 'fast track' - $33: value of contracts on hold -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email soc-casi-discuss-request@lists.cam.ac.uk Full details of CASI's various lists can be found on the CASI website: http://www.casi.org.uk