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Here are the recalculations of the OIP figures I circulated. The figures on the OIP table are only for arrivals in South / Central Iraq, except for food and health supplies and oil spare parts The separate figure at the bottom of the OIP table for the Northern governorates ($610.3m) accounts for all other sectors (housing, electricity, water / sanitation etc). If one assumes the population balance has remained at 1996 levels, then the three northern governorates contain 13% of the population - 2.9 million. That means the area under Government of Iraq control contains 19.1 million. So, looking at arrivals and dividing the relevant OFF figure by either 2.9 million people, 19.1 million people or 22 million people, I arrive at the total value of OFF goods per head as follows: - Overall (North, Centre, South) $549 - Northern governates all sectors (excluding food and medicine purchased by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide, and oil spare parts) $210 - Food $305 (including items purchased for the three northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Centre and South food handling $29 - Health $56 (including items purchased for the three northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Oil spares $30 - Centre and South electricity $33 - Centre and South water/sanitation $23 - Centre and South agriculture $43 - Centre and South education $8 - Centre and South telecom/transport $3 - Centre and South housing $10 Per person, other relevant figures are: - $1,193: value of contracts received by OIP - $794: value of contracts approved by Sanctions Committee - $174: value of contracts approved by OIP 'fast track' - $156: value of contracts on hold What comes across is just how puny the amounts are. They seem even more puny when calculated as an amount per person per year of sanctions. I arrived at these figures by dividing the above figures by 10.66 (ie the 10 years and 8 months of the sanctions). The OFF figures per person per year average are: - Overall (North, Centre, South) $52 - Northern governates all sectors (excluding food and medicine purchased by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide, and oil spare parts) $20 - Food $29 (including items purchased for the three northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Centre and South food handling $3 - Health $5 (including items purchased for the three northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real figure will be slightly higher - Oil spares $3 - Centre and South electricity $3 - Centre and South water/sanitation $2 - Centre and South agriculture $4 - Centre and South education 75 cents - Centre and South telecom/transport 28 cents - Centre and South housing 94 cents One might also recalculate the averages for the period of the OFF programme. Although the OFF resolution (SCR 986) was passed by the Security Council in April 1995 and was accepted by the Iraqi government in May 1996, OFF supplies only began to arrive in Iraq in 1997 and only in significant quantities from the Spring of 1998. These amounts have been supplemented in various ways: 1. government rations outside OFF, 2. non-state smuggling and black market dollar activities, 3. aid channelled through the UN (as aid it is outside the UN OFF programme, which is funded by Iraqi oil sales), 4. Iraqi state smuggling (makes the regime about $1.5 bn per year), 5. selling their assets (right down to books, toys, etc. and 6. pretty marginal economic activity in the dinar economy within Iraq. Apologies for having to send a correction. Cheers ---------------------- Dr. Eric Herring Department of Politics University of Bristol 10 Priory Road Bristol BS8 1TU England, UK Tel. +44-(0)117-928-8582 Fax +44-(0)117-973-2133 http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Politics eric.herring@bristol.ac.uk -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email soc-casi-discuss-request@lists.cam.ac.uk Full details of CASI's various lists can be found on the CASI website: http://www.casi.org.uk