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Recalculated OFF arrivals figures



Here are the recalculations of the OIP figures I circulated.

The figures on the OIP table are only for arrivals in South
/ Central Iraq, except for food and health supplies and oil
spare parts The separate figure at the bottom of the 
OIP table for the Northern governorates ($610.3m) accounts
for all other sectors (housing, electricity, water / 
sanitation etc).

If one assumes the population balance has remained at 1996 
levels, then the three northern governorates contain 13% of
the population - 2.9 million. That means the area under 
Government of Iraq control contains 19.1 million.

So, looking at arrivals and dividing the relevant OFF 
figure by either 2.9 million people, 19.1 million people or
22 million people, I arrive at the total value of OFF goods
per head as follows: 
- Overall (North, Centre, South) $549
- Northern governates all sectors (excluding food and 
medicine purchased by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements 
countrywide, and oil spare parts) $210
- Food $305 (including items purchased for the three 
northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk 
arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some 
purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so 
the real figure will be slightly higher 
- Centre and South food handling $29
- Health $56 (including items purchased for the three 
northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements
countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing 
power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real 
figure will be slightly higher 
- Oil spares $30
- Centre and South electricity $33
- Centre and South water/sanitation $23
- Centre and South agriculture $43
- Centre and South education $8
- Centre and South telecom/transport $3
- Centre and South housing $10

Per person, other relevant figures are:
- $1,193: value of contracts received by OIP
- $794: value of contracts approved by Sanctions Committee
- $174: value of contracts approved by OIP 'fast track'
- $156: value of contracts on hold

What comes across is just how puny the amounts are. They 
seem even more puny when calculated as an amount per person
per year of sanctions. I arrived at these figures by 
dividing the above figures by 10.66 (ie the 10 years and 8 
months of the sanctions). The OFF figures per person per 
year average are:
- Overall (North, Centre, South) $52
- Northern governates all sectors (excluding food and 
medicine purchased by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements 
countrywide, and oil spare parts) $20
- Food $29 (including items purchased for the three 
northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk 
arrangements countrywide). Northern governorates have some 
purchasing power outside the bulk purchasing process, so 
the real figure will be slightly higher 
- Centre and South food handling $3
- Health $5 (including items purchased for the three 
northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements
countrywide). Northern governorates have some purchasing 
power outside the bulk purchasing process, so the real 
figure will be slightly higher 
- Oil spares $3
- Centre and South electricity $3
- Centre and South water/sanitation $2
- Centre and South agriculture $4
- Centre and South education 75 cents
- Centre and South telecom/transport 28 cents
- Centre and South housing 94 cents

One might also recalculate the averages for the period of 
the OFF programme. Although the OFF resolution (SCR 986) 
was passed by the Security Council in April 1995 and was 
accepted by the Iraqi government in May 1996, OFF supplies 
only began to arrive in Iraq in 1997 and only in 
significant quantities from the Spring of 1998.

These amounts have been supplemented in various ways: 1. 
government rations outside OFF, 2. non-state smuggling and 
black market dollar activities, 3. aid channelled through 
the UN (as aid it is outside the UN OFF programme, which is
funded by Iraqi oil sales), 4.  Iraqi state smuggling 
(makes the regime about $1.5 bn per year), 5. selling their
assets (right down to books, toys, etc. and 6. pretty 
marginal economic activity in the dinar economy within 
Iraq. 

Apologies for having to send a correction.

Cheers

----------------------
Dr. Eric Herring
Department of Politics
University of Bristol
10 Priory Road
Bristol BS8 1TU
England, UK
Tel. +44-(0)117-928-8582
Fax +44-(0)117-973-2133
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Politics
eric.herring@bristol.ac.uk

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