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Dear all: I agree with Glen's corrections and will circulate an accurate set of figures ASAP. Apologies from me and thanks to Glen. Cheers Eic On Thu, 24 May 2001 16:06:49 +0100 (BST) Glen Rangwala <gr10009@hermes.cam.ac.uk> wrote: > Eric's statistical breakdown is a useful exercise, and it makes a valuable > campaigning tool to begin discussions on Iraq. > > However, I'm really not so sure the actual figures. In short, the figures > on OIP are only for arrivals in South / Central Iraq (coming out of the > ESB / 59% account), except for food & health supplies which are reimbursed > separately from ESC for bulk purchasing: a total of $1.04bn was reimbursed > from ESC (ie the Northern governorates) to ESB (S/C Iraq) up to 9 May 01, > according to latest SG report from earlier this month (see para.17); also > oil spares were so reimbursed ($138m). The separate figure for the > Northern governorates ($610m) accounts for housing, electricity, water / > sanitation &c in the Northern governorates. > > If one assumes the population balance has remained at 1996 levels, then > the 3 governorates contain 13% of the population. If the total population > is 22 million (I think it's probably slightly higher), this makes the > population in the three Northern governorates 2.86 million (there's > good reason to imagine it may be less, though). That means the area under > GoI control contains 19.1 million. > > As a result, the figures for the population in South / Central Iraq should > read: > > > - Food $305 (including items purchased for the three > > northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk > > arrangements countrywide) > > Slightly more complicated: this figure excludes food purchasing by the > Northern governorates outside the bulk purchasing arrangements. It should, > then, be slightly higher. > > > - Food handling $25 > For S/C, if total in ESB orders is divided by 19.1m, would come to $29. > > > - Health $56 (including items purchased for the three > > northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements > > countrywide) > As with food, above. > > > - Oil spares $30 > Agreed. > > > - Electricity $29 > £33, and so on. > > The Northern governorates figure can be calculated from the amount > reimbursed from ESC (in the SG's report, up to May01) plus 610m (only > valid up to end of March) = 1.79bn + whatever has been ordered > independently in April & May. If that latter figure is assumed to be > small, it would amount to $625 per person. > > By the way - one item that we don't cite often enough - the total amount > allocated to the compensation fund alone ($12.34bn, according to > SG2001/505 Annex I, 2c; up to end of April) is still probably greater than > the total value of the goods that have arrived in Iraq throughout the > whole of OFF ($12.1bn, up to end of March). Furthermore, the operating > expenses of the Compensation Commission (ie lawyers' & experts' fees) is > four times the total value of imports under the whole OFF programme in the > transport and telecommunications sector. > > If you spot any flaws in this analysis, please let me know. > Best wishes > Glen. > > -- > ----------------------------------------------------------------------- > This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq > For removal from list, email soc-casi-discuss-request@lists.cam.ac.uk > Full details of CASI's various lists can be found on the CASI website: > http://www.casi.org.uk > ---------------------- Dr. Eric Herring Department of Politics University of Bristol 10 Priory Road Bristol BS8 1TU England, UK Tel. +44-(0)117-928-8582 Fax +44-(0)117-973-2133 http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Politics eric.herring@bristol.ac.uk -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email soc-casi-discuss-request@lists.cam.ac.uk Full details of CASI's various lists can be found on the CASI website: http://www.casi.org.uk