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Re: Figures on arrivals of OFF goods in Iraq



Dear all:

I agree with Glen's corrections and will circulate an 
accurate set of figures ASAP.

Apologies from me and thanks to Glen.

Cheers

Eic

On Thu, 24 May 2001 16:06:49 +0100 (BST) Glen Rangwala 
<gr10009@hermes.cam.ac.uk> wrote:

> Eric's statistical breakdown is a useful exercise, and it makes a valuable
> campaigning tool to begin discussions on Iraq.
> 
> However, I'm really not so sure the actual figures. In short, the figures
> on OIP are only for arrivals in South / Central Iraq (coming out of the
> ESB / 59% account), except for food & health supplies which are reimbursed
> separately from ESC for bulk purchasing: a total of $1.04bn was reimbursed
> from ESC (ie the Northern governorates) to ESB (S/C Iraq) up to 9 May 01,
> according to latest SG report from earlier this month (see para.17); also
> oil spares were so reimbursed ($138m). The separate figure for the
> Northern governorates ($610m) accounts for housing, electricity, water /
> sanitation &c in the Northern governorates.
> 
> If one assumes the population balance has remained at 1996 levels, then
> the 3 governorates contain 13% of the population. If the total population
> is 22 million (I think it's probably slightly higher), this makes the
> population in the three Northern governorates 2.86 million (there's
> good reason to imagine it may be less, though). That means the area under
> GoI control contains 19.1 million.
> 
> As a result, the figures for the population in South / Central Iraq should
> read:
> 
> > - Food $305 (including items purchased for the three
> > northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk
> > arrangements countrywide)
> 
> Slightly more complicated: this figure excludes food purchasing by the
> Northern governorates outside the bulk purchasing arrangements. It should,
> then, be slightly higher.
> 
> > - Food handling $25
> For S/C, if total in ESB orders is divided by 19.1m, would come to $29.
> 
> > - Health $56 (including items purchased for the three
> > northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements
> > countrywide)
> As with food, above.
> 
> > - Oil spares $30
> Agreed.
> 
> > - Electricity $29
> 33, and so on.
> 
> The Northern governorates figure can be calculated from the amount
> reimbursed from ESC (in the SG's report, up to May01) plus 610m (only
> valid up to end of March) = 1.79bn + whatever has been ordered
> independently in April & May. If that latter figure is assumed to be
> small, it would amount to $625 per person.
> 
> By the way - one item that we don't cite often enough - the total amount
> allocated to the compensation fund alone ($12.34bn, according to
> SG2001/505 Annex I, 2c; up to end of April) is still probably greater than
> the total value of the goods that have arrived in Iraq throughout the
> whole of OFF ($12.1bn, up to end of March). Furthermore, the operating
> expenses of the Compensation Commission (ie lawyers' & experts' fees) is
> four times the total value of imports under the whole OFF programme in the
> transport and telecommunications sector.
> 
> If you spot any flaws in this analysis, please let me know.
> Best wishes
> Glen.
> 
> -- 
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----------------------
Dr. Eric Herring
Department of Politics
University of Bristol
10 Priory Road
Bristol BS8 1TU
England, UK
Tel. +44-(0)117-928-8582
Fax +44-(0)117-973-2133
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Politics
eric.herring@bristol.ac.uk

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