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Re: Figures on arrivals of OFF goods in Iraq

Eric's statistical breakdown is a useful exercise, and it makes a valuable
campaigning tool to begin discussions on Iraq.

However, I'm really not so sure the actual figures. In short, the figures
on OIP are only for arrivals in South / Central Iraq (coming out of the
ESB / 59% account), except for food & health supplies which are reimbursed
separately from ESC for bulk purchasing: a total of $1.04bn was reimbursed
from ESC (ie the Northern governorates) to ESB (S/C Iraq) up to 9 May 01,
according to latest SG report from earlier this month (see para.17); also
oil spares were so reimbursed ($138m). The separate figure for the
Northern governorates ($610m) accounts for housing, electricity, water /
sanitation &c in the Northern governorates.

If one assumes the population balance has remained at 1996 levels, then
the 3 governorates contain 13% of the population. If the total population
is 22 million (I think it's probably slightly higher), this makes the
population in the three Northern governorates 2.86 million (there's
good reason to imagine it may be less, though). That means the area under
GoI control contains 19.1 million.

As a result, the figures for the population in South / Central Iraq should

> - Food $305 (including items purchased for the three
> northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk
> arrangements countrywide)

Slightly more complicated: this figure excludes food purchasing by the
Northern governorates outside the bulk purchasing arrangements. It should,
then, be slightly higher.

> - Food handling $25
For S/C, if total in ESB orders is divided by 19.1m, would come to $29.

> - Health $56 (including items purchased for the three
> northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements
> countrywide)
As with food, above.

> - Oil spares $30

> - Electricity $29
33, and so on.

The Northern governorates figure can be calculated from the amount
reimbursed from ESC (in the SG's report, up to May01) plus 610m (only
valid up to end of March) = 1.79bn + whatever has been ordered
independently in April & May. If that latter figure is assumed to be
small, it would amount to $625 per person.

By the way - one item that we don't cite often enough - the total amount
allocated to the compensation fund alone ($12.34bn, according to
SG2001/505 Annex I, 2c; up to end of April) is still probably greater than
the total value of the goods that have arrived in Iraq throughout the
whole of OFF ($12.1bn, up to end of March). Furthermore, the operating
expenses of the Compensation Commission (ie lawyers' & experts' fees) is
four times the total value of imports under the whole OFF programme in the
transport and telecommunications sector.

If you spot any flaws in this analysis, please let me know.
Best wishes

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