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Re: [iac-disc.] Encouragingarticle about Iraq Sanctions

I think the figure actually comes from the Iraqi Ministry of Health whose
latest report seems to have a revised estimate of around 1,500,000 deaths
(they were earlier saying 1,800,000).  The source references can be found
either with people who recently went to Iraq (I know at least the IAC
Sanctions Challenge delegates received info packets containing MOH
statistics) and on the CASI web site - 

On the issue of the change in the FAO reported figure of child deaths - in
their report on this issue, CASI outlines why they think the figure is in
between the 1995 and 1996 estimates and probably much closer to the higher
one, which I think is also the position taken by some FAO investigators.
The argument is given in the CASI report and I find it fairly convincing.

I hope this helps


On Wed, 21 Feb 2001, Edward G Qubain wrote:

> Hi,
>       I talked today briefly with Peter Pellet, who led most of the FAO
> delegations to Iraq, about the figures. He said the excess child mortality
> figures were found by comparing the current mortality rate with the
> pre-sanctions rate. He quoted me the 500,000 figure from the latest UNICEF
> study. When I asked about the 1 million excess mortality figure for the
> entire population he told me these figures were coming from groups like
> the International Action Center but he considered them realistic, so
> apparently this is not an official UN figure. 
> Edward Qubain
> On Wed, 21 Feb 2001, Milan Rai wrote:
> > > My understanding is that the UN figures are referring to deaths due to the
> > > sanctions. The latest figure I know of is that 1.2 million people have
> > > died from the sanctions. This was reported by the UN FAO in 1996, I
> > > believe.
> > 
> > The FAO 1995 survey did not produce an estimate of total child mortality.
> > Some analysts working for the FAO did produce their own estimate (576,000
> > children under five) which they had to withdraw about a year later because
> > the next FAO survey threw up different figures and a radically lower
> > estimate.
> > 
> > If anyone has an estimate made by a UN agency or by a UN official of the
> > total cumulative death toll attributable to sanctions, they should share it
> > with these lists (preferably with references).
> > 
> > Voices UK is not aware of any such estimate. We don't believe one has been
> > made (so far).
> > 
> > Best wishes
> > 
> > Mil
> > 
> > Milan Rai
> > Joint Coordinator
> > Voices in the Wilderness UK
> > National Office
> > 16B Cherwell St, Oxford OX4 1BG
> > 
> > NEW personal contact details
> > 29 Gensing Road, St Leonards-on-sea TN38 0HE
> > ph 0845 458 9571 (local rate) pager 07623 746 462
> > 
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