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-----Original Message----- From: firstname.lastname@example.org [mailto:email@example.com] Sent: Tuesday, March 28, 2000 10:48 PM To: firstname.lastname@example.org Subject: Iraq STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - 29 March 2000 By The Internet's Most Intelligent Source of International News & Analysis http://www.stratfor.com/ __________________________________________ Know the every move of your competitors -- even before they do. Stratfor Intelligence Services http://www.stratfor.com/services/ __________________________________________ WHAT'S GOING ON IN YOUR WORLD Stratfor.com has added a web page which contains articles we wrote before most news outlets knew the stories existed. Rather than tell you what has already happened, we specialize in telling you what will happen next. Visit http://www.stratfor.com/world/wetoldyouso.htm __________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update 29 March 2000 Power Struggle Brewing between Sons of Saddam Summary Iraq recently held parliamentary elections that resulted in Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's eldest son, Odai, winning a seat with 99.99 percent of the vote. Since Saddam carefully controls the elections as well as his regime, it appears that he has handed Odai a potentially powerful position in the Iraqi government, one which intensifies the ongoing power struggle between Odai and his younger brother, Qusai. Pitting one's sons against each other is not unheard of in successions. Nevertheless, the move may result in weakening the security apparatus that protects Saddam. Analysis Odai Hussein, eldest son of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, won a seat in the National Assembly (parliament) by a sweeping 99.99 percent of the vote. Saddam controls Iraq's parliamentary elections, which are neither free nor fair. Every candidate is a member of either Saddam's Baath party or one of the few parties that exist because they have pledged loyalty to Saddam's regime. Odai, who was once regarded as Iraq's heir apparent, now poses a new threat to his younger brother Qusai - and ultimately his father Saddam. Odai will also likely win the position of Assembly speaker in April. While the National Assembly is not a powerful body, the speaker has considerable influence in the regime and attends meetings of the Revolutionary Command Council, the all-powerful decision making body led by Saddam. A December 1996 assassination attempt left Odai partially paralyzed, prompting Saddam to focus on grooming the younger Qusai to be Iraq's next leader. If Odai becomes parliamentary speaker, it will be his first position of governmental power since before the attempt on his life. Odai, 35, has always played a public role in Iraq and currently publishes the influential Iraqi daily Babel, which often functions as a government mouthpiece. He heads Iraq's Olympic Committee and the Iraqi Football Federation, making him popular among Iraqis. The younger Qusai, 33, has worked behind the scenes for years gaining power and support in Iraq's security services. He heads the elite Republican Guards as well as the special security agency in charge of protecting the president. As deputy commander of the army, Qusai also commands the northern military region, which oversees Kurdish areas and is intended to respond to Turkish invasions. Qusai also has significant influence and support in the Iraqi intelligence service, Mukhabarat. Now, Odai will be able to use his election victory as the first big step in a campaign to challenge his brother's pre-eminence in the Iraqi succession struggle. In the past year, Qusai has solidified his power base and chipped away at Odai's while he struggled to return to the spotlight. In July, shortly after walking without assistance for the first time since the assassination attempt, Odai publicly made comments suggesting he was ready to return to the state's security and political apparatus. Qusai responded by purging the military and security apparatus of officers loyal to Odai. Saddam has not prevented Odai's resurgence, indicating tacit approval. If Odai wins parliamentary speaker - a likely possibility - he may try to rally support in the powerful Revolutionary Command Council away from his brother, who also attends the meetings. He may also try to regain influence in the military and security apparatus as well. If this occurs, it will undoubtedly spark a significant response from Qusai. Odai's mere comments in July were enough to set off purges by his younger brother. If Odai does have ambitions of edging out Qusai, he will have to be tactful. Qusai clearly has more power and resources at his disposal, as well as the apparent support of his father. It seems clear that Saddam has chosen Qusai as his successor. Saddam appointed Qusai to all of the high posts he now holds and has, in the past, had to rein in Odai who has a reputation as a short-tempered trouble-maker. In 1995, Saddam briefly jailed Odai after he shot an uncle in the leg during an argument. In December 1999, Saddam decorated Qusai with three prestigious military awards. Then in January, Saddam gave Odai a single medal of valor, one of the three awards Qusai received a month earlier. Saddam relies heavily on the highly efficient security agencies, commanded by Qusai, to keep him alive and in power. Odai must be careful not to undermine his brother so much that it affects Qusai's ability to control the agencies he heads. Any attempt by Odai to weaken Qusai or those agencies will not be taken lightly by a ruler known to execute family members. Saddam may well have set up the conflict to ensure that neither son is able to become too ambitious for the presidency. While Qusai controls the military and security apparatus, Odai enjoys widespread popular support. If both sons play to their strength, they exploit the already tense rift between the government and the people. If Odai undermines his brother - at the expense, or perceived expense, of the Iraqi regime's security - he may also undermine his father, which could result in his own demise. (c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ __________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES by clicking on http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, title, organization, address, phone number, and e-mail to email@example.com ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: firstname.lastname@example.org ___________________________________________________ -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email email@example.com Full details of CASI's various lists can be found on the CASI website: http://welcome.to/casi