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new reports by the Secretary-General to the Security Council

Two new reports by the UN Secretary-General to the Security Council were
released on 14 January and are now available on the UN Office of the Iraq
Programme's website (  The reports are:

1. S/2000/22 which addresses the steps taken by the Secretary-General to
implement the parts of SCR 1284 for which he is responsible.  Of note:

- the 53% account for humanitarian imports to South/Central Iraq under
oil-for-food is now a 54% account due to the suspension of the interest
payments account in the oil-for-food escrow account.  It does not seem
that Iraqi Kurdistan has had its allowance increased (on a per capita
basis, it exceeds that of South/Central Iraq).

- the "green list" of humanitarian goods mentioned in paragraph 17 is
being reviewed by technical experts before submission to the sanctions
committee.  Import contracts containing only items on this list will not
require approval by the sanctions committee.  The list is unlikely to
include inputs to public health infrastructure (such as electrical, water
and sanitation supplies) although

        "The most important problem in our view in Iraq at the moment is
        the increasingly precarious situation of the [**] public
        infrastructure [**]," said Beat Schweizer, head of the
        International Committee of the Red Cross delegation in Iraq.
        (Red Cross says Iraq's hospitals close to collapse, BAGHDAD, Jan
        23 (AFP))

- a group of experts is in the country to advise on both Iraq's oil
industry and on the revenues required to meet its humanitarian needs.  My
own sense is that there is more effort going into assessing these needs
than I have seen before; this I take to be a positive result of SCR 1284.

- SCR 1284's call for humanitarian donations to Iraq has not produced an
encouraging result.

- follow-up reports may be submitted on 10 March or 15 February and 26
March; the Secretary-General prefers submitting them both on 10 March.

2. S/2000/26 on the state of Iraq's oil industry.  This contains the
report of an oil expert dispatched under the authority of SCR 1281 [NOT
1284; there are a lot of experts these days].  Of note:

- "the oil industry in Iraq is in a lamentable state ... continuining
deterioration of the oil facilities ... adversely affecting the safety of
the workers ... causing serious environmental damage ... damaging oil
wells - some permanently ... may also cause a major breakdown in Iraq's
oil production"

- the Secretary-General reiterates his recommendation that Iraq be allowed
to double its permitted oil spare parts and equipment imports to $600
million / phase.  Reviewing its needs, he found this "reasonable" and
indicated that the funds for it were available.  The UN oil expert was
informed by the Government of Iraq that they had already contracted for
$630 million of spare parts.

- Iraq's plans include the drilling of new wells to return its oil
production towards 3.3 - 3.4 million barrels per day in 2000; this was its
level under OPEC in 1990.  This is a "realistic" target if all holds on
oil parts are released but, as this is unlikely, "a more likely scenario" 
"would be a reduction in production of some 300,000 barrels per day" [at
recent prices of $24 / barrel, this implies a reduction of $7.2 million
per day, or $1.3 billion over a 180 day phase]  Production of crude oil
has peaked.

- oil exports [rather than production] are expected to be the same as in
last period.  The lifting of the cap in SCR 1284 is therefore unlikely to
make a difference yet.

Colin Rowat

Coordinator, Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

393 King's College            
Cambridge CB2 1ST                       tel: +44 (0)468 056 984
England                                 fax: +44 (0)870 063 4984

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