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Rania recently posted the names of the 3 most likely candidates for head
of UNMOVIC, Celso Amorim, Pasi Patokallio and Rolf Ekeus. Kofi Annan has
to make the decision by Sunday, according to SCR1284. It's a highly
important post, given the ability of the head of UNMOVIC to make the 
judgment on Iraqi compliance, & to negotiate entry of UNMOVIC into Iraq.
Here's my limited knowledge of the Amorim & Patokallio - I imagine we all
know about Ekeus. 

Pasi Patokallio has been the frontrunner for the job for a long time.
Reports from September last year said that the Security Council had in
effect already decided that he would lead any future arms body. He was
Finland's long-time disarmament chief, heading the Finish mission to the
UN Conference on Disarmament - where, despite Finland's support for
nuclear disarmament, he was a leading critic of attempts to link the
renewal of the Non-Proliferation Treaty to immediate negotiations for
universal verifiable nuclear disarmament (a position supported primarily
by Middle Eastern States). He also became famous (notorious) as the head
of Finland's delegation to the negotiations for a treaty to ban
landmines, as he was opposed to any prohibition on the use or stockpiling
of landmines (due to the Russian threat). Nevertheless, he is seen to
have had good relations with Russia, and closer to the European than the
US position on most issues - apparently, the US was the last to be
convinced at last September's Security Council talks that he was a
suitable candidate. Recently, he has served as Finland's ambassador to
Israel and Cyprus.

Celso Amorim is the surprise candidate. He's on the list of course because
he, as Brazil's ambassador to the UN, assembled and chaired the 3 Security
Council panels of 1999, which (by all accounts I've seen) he did very
competently. He annoyed the US by excluding Richard Butler from the
Weapons panel, and (if I remember correctly) he supported the strong tone
on the humanitarian panel, starkly drawing attention to the suffering of
the Iraqi people. However, his background is not in the Middle East or
disarmament fields at all. Most of his political life has been spent in
economic delegations. He rose to be head of the economic department of the
Brazilian foreign ministry, was trade ambassador to the GATT talks, and
played a significant role in the early running of the WTO. He became
Brazil's foreign minister in the early 1990s, again seemingly
concentrating on international economic issues. He then shifted to become
Brazil's ambassador to the UN; he is credited with trying to exclude all
language from UNSC resolutions on Iraq that would seem to imply that
unilateral military action could be taken (by the US) if Iraq failed to
comply with the inspectors.

Latest reports seem to indicate that none of these candidates are getting
unanimous support. AP reported this morning that new possibilities are 
South Africa's deputy director-general for multilateral affairs, Abdul
Minty (who I know nothing about) and Indonesia's former ambassador to the
UN, Nugroho Wisnumurti. But worst of all, the suggestion has been put
forward that Indonesia's notorious former foreign minister, Ali Alatas - a
bloodthirsty man who served as the US/UK's middleman for conducting the
brutality against the East Timorese - could do the job. I have
compromising photos of him, just in case. 

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