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Sorry for the multiple posts but the following articles (one from AP and the other from the New York Times) provide some indications at to what might happen if (a) the "omnibus" resolution is passed and rejected or (b) it's vetoed. AP claims that "A vote on the overall new policy would enable the counilto extend the UN program for six months and incorporate a host of enhancements, such as removing the $5.2 billion limit in the amount Iraq can export over six months" It's not clear to me whether this means a *positive* vote. The report goes on to note that : "Diplomats said Tuesday the United States would support a six-month extension of the program even if the council doesn't agree on the overall resolution". Meanwhile Barbara Crossette (providing her usual service to power) writes in the NYT that : "The program has been given two short extensions, prompting Iraq to stop exporting oil for the last three weeks in protest. The next deadline is Saturday, and diplomats say that the program is likely to be extended for the full six months. If there is agreement on the arms inspection plan this week, the oil-sales plan would be phased into the overall Iraq surveillance program. Under that program the oil-sales agreement would be enhanced in several ways, primarily by removing the limit on sales, although supervision of the money earned would continue." Note the "If there is agreement". She goes on to note that : "If the resolution creating the new body, the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, is vetoed, however, sanctions against President Saddam Hussein's government will remain in place indefinitely -- which many in Washington would welcome. The only question then becomes whether the embargo would begin to erode as nations tired of an inconclusive policy and eager to strike business deals would begin to break the rules and deal openly with Iraq. That problem, however, would no longer belong to the Clinton administration but to its successor" Anyway, here are the two reports in full : %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% DECEMBER 07, 22:17 EST Council Schedules Iraq Consultations By NICOLE WINFIELD Associated Press Writer UNITED NATIONS (AP) But Russia, an Iraqi ally on the powerful council, is insisting it needs more time for negotiations ``There is still room for compromise U.S. Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering was in New York on Tuesday to meet with Russian Ambassador Sergey Lavrov to try to reach a compromise over the resolution, which has the support of most of the council, a U.S. official said. Russian backing for the resolution is key since it could veto the measure, leaving the council with little to show for nearly a year of negotiations that began after weapons inspections in Iraq collapsed last December. British Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock, the current council president, said he wouldn't rule out any area of discussion during Wednesday's scheduled closed door consultations, which would mark the first time in weeks that the full 15 members have met on the subject. The permanent five members of the council Russia and China favor the suspension of sanctions, which were imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, soon after Iraq allows inspectors to return and demonstrates it is cooperating with them. But the United States and Britain want a longer waiting period and Iraqi answers to outstanding questions about its disarmament. ``It's up to council members to talk about the comprehensive approach on Iraq as they wish,'' Greenstock said. ``But I made it clear that we need to take action before the weekend.'' The United States and Britain want the council to vote on the resolution before Saturday, when the current phase of the U.N. humanitarian program in Iraq expires. The program lets Iraq sell limited amounts of oil to buy food, medicine and oil industry spare parts for its ailing oil sector. A vote on the overall new policy resolution would enable the council to extend the U.N. program for six months and incorporate a host of enhancements included in the overall policy resolution, such as removing the dlrs 5.2 billion limit in the amount of oil Iraq can export over six months. Diplomats said Tuesday the United States would support a six-month extension of the program even if the council doesn't agree on the overall resolution. Copyright 1999 Associated Press. All rights reserved. %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% December 8, 1999 New Arms Inspection Plan Could End Sanctions Against Iraq By BARBARA CROSSETTE NITED NATIONS -- A new arms inspection plan that could lead to the suspension of nine years of sanctions against Iraq sometime next year may go to the Security Council for debate on Wednesday, Western diplomats said Tuesday. British and American envoys, augmented by State Department officials, spent Tuesday trying to build a consensus that would avoid a Russian veto. Diplomats said that on Wednesday the foreign ministers of key Security Council countries, including Secretary Of State Madeleine Albright and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov of Russia, would discuss the proposals by telephone. While a formal vote by the 15-member council may not take place until the weekend, there is a sense among council members that the next day or two will be crucial to future policy on Iraq. At stake are not only the creation of a new arms-monitoring body and the laying out of a rough timetable pointing to relief from the crippling international embargo if Iraq complies with inspectors, but also the future of the "oil-for-food" program. The economic sanctions were imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, and are to remain in place until Iraq demonstrates it has eliminated its weapons of mass destruction. The oil-for-food program is intended to soften the effects of the embargo on ordinary Iraqis by permitting Iraq to sell controlled amounts of oil in order to purchase needed civilian goods. The program has been given two short extensions, prompting Iraq to stop exporting oil for the last three weeks in protest. The next deadline is Saturday, and diplomats say that the program is likely to be extended for the full six months. If there is agreement on the arms inspection plan this week, the oil-sales plan would be phased into the overall Iraq surveillance program. Under that program the oil-sales agreement would be enhanced in several ways, primarily by removing the limit on sales, although supervision of the money earned would continue. Western diplomats say that significant differences remain on several points between the Russians on one hand and the British and Americans on the other, primarily over how to judge whether Iraq is in compliance with inspectors. On that judgment rests the trigger that would lift sanctions for renewable periods of 100 days. Several council members said that it is important to have Russian support for the plan to demonstrate to Iraq that the council is firmly committed to resuming arms inspections. In a trend that has been developing since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, diplomats find themselves trying to factor in Russian domestic political pressures as well as Moscow's long ties to Iraq as they search for consensus. Tuesday, Thomas Pickering, the American undersecretary of state, came to New York to speak with Sergey Lavrov, the chief Russian representative on the council, who returned on Monday from Moscow. In Moscow, Lavrov took part in four days of talks with Tariq Aziz, Iraq's deputy prime minister, who urged the Russians to oppose the arms inspections, Aziz said Tuesday in a speech in Baghdad. He did not say much about the Russian response, but he did repeat Iraq's strong opposition to the new plan and again demanded the immediate and unconditional lifting of sanctions. Some diplomats thought that Lavrov had toughened his position somewhat Tuesday after the talks with Aziz and consultations with Russian colleagues, but others speculated that the Russian envoy's harder line in talks may have been a bargaining tool as discussions enter their final hours. The Iraq negotiations are being conducted for the United States by Peter Burleigh, a Middle East and Asia expert who is about to depart as deputy chief representative here. Richard Holbrooke, the chief American representative, is on an extended tour of Africa. There is a sense among diplomats that the Americans regard this as the final push on Iraq, nearly a year after British and American bombing raids to punish Iraq for its failure to cooperate with Unscom, the first arms inspection team. If the new resolution creating Unscom's successor passes, the United States and other members will be seen to have acted decisively after months of dithering. Iraq will resist new inspections, but that confrontation will open a new phase in its relations with the United Nations. If the resolution creating the new body, the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, is vetoed, however, sanctions against President Saddam Hussein's government will remain in place indefinitely -- which many in Washington would welcome. The only question then becomes whether the embargo would begin to erode as nations tired of an inconclusive policy and eager to strike business deals would begin to break the rules and deal openly with Iraq. That problem, however, would no longer belong to the Clinton administration but to its successor. -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email soc-casi-discuss-request@lists.cam.ac.uk Full archive and list instructions are available from the CASI website: http://welcome.to/casi