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Milan is correct, and I hope the confusion didn't begin with a lack of clarity in my comments regarding Professor Garfield. To reiterate: 1) Garfield did NOT describe the UNICEF estimates as conservative. Rather, he was discussing his own statistical work (still online at CASI) which was done in the absence of recent, large-scale survey data and which was, by intention, conservative in its estimations. 2) Although it's reasonable to assume a relationship between mortality rates of infants and toddlers and other at-risk populations (e.g., the aged and infirm), there is no accepted rule-of-thumb by which adult mortality rates can be inferred (again, per Garfield comments). Therefore, it's misleading to discuss these overall estimates in the context of the UNICEF survey -- and doubly improper to cite Garfield in this matter. 3) Neither of the preliminary UNICEF reports (for center/south or north) discuss cause of death. However, the preliminary northern report states that the full report *will* include causal data. (Note that the reports for the northern governorates are produced independently, so it's unclear whether similar information will be forthcoming from the center/south). 4) As regards cause, an interesting citation is from The Times itself. On August 13, they reported the UNICEF results under the headline: "Iraqi children 'dying because of sanctions'". This story is remains online at http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/99/08/13/timfgnmid01002.html?19 96766 . Regards, Drew Hamre Golden Valley, MN USA e-mail: drew.hamre@rainier.com -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq. To be removed/added, email soc-casi-discuss-request@lists.cam.ac.uk, NOT the whole list. Please do not sent emails with attached files to the list *** Archived at http://linux.clare.cam.ac.uk/~saw27/casi/discuss.html ***