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UN: what's next for Iraq?



All of these articles concern the UN's new proposals for improving the
humanitarian situation in Iraq.

*       UN urged to allow investment in Iraq (Financial Times): "The
humanitarian situation in Iraq will continue to be a dire one in the
absence of a sustained revival of the Iraqi economy, which in turn
cannot be achieved through remedial humanitarian efforts."
*       Proposal to ease Iraq oil scheme (BBC Online): "The gravity of
the humanitarian situation of the Iraqi people is indisputable and
cannot be overstated.''
*       Two more articles on the UN's new proposals (Associated Press)
(basically repetition of the above, but more details about the Kuwait
and disarmament panels)
*       Iraq Ambassador: "Anything short of lifting sanctions, I don't
think there is a way out.'' (Associated Press)
*       Baghdad: London's suggestions an attempt to keep sanctions
forever (Arabic News)

********************
The Financial Times, Thursday 1 April 1999
UN urged to allow investment in Iraq
By Roula Khalaf, Middle East Correspondent, in London

A panel set up by the United Nations Security Council to study the
humanitarian situation in Iraq has recommended that foreign companies be
allowed to invest in Iraq's oil sector to raise the country's export
capability, diplomats said yesterday. The panel, made up of four senior
UN officials, was one of three established by the Council with the aim
of formulating a new policy on Iraq, following last December's US and
British air raids and the policy divisions among the five permanent
Council members. 

It found that Iraq had moved from relative affluence to poverty since
sanctions were imposed. Literacy rates had dropped from 75 per cent
eight years ago to 53 per cent today; infant mortality was now the
highest in the world. While it did not urge the eight-year-old UN
sanctions be lifted, it suggested a partial easing would let foreign
companies invest in the oil sector, and other industries battered by
sanctions.

Diplomats said the panel made clear that the oil for food programme,
allowing Iraq to sell limited amounts of oil to buy humanitarian goods,
was inadequate. "The humanitarian situation in Iraq will continue to be
a dire one in the absence of a sustained revival of the Iraqi economy,
which in turn cannot be achieved through remedial humanitarian efforts,"
the panel said.

The recommendations were welcomed by France, which, with Russia and
China, has called for a lifting of sanctions. Diplomats said yesterday
that the US and Britain were likely to oppose proposals for investments
in Iraq. Security Council members are likely to disagree over their
reading of the results of the 20-member disarmament panel.

Aid agency officials close to the UN said it recommended this week that
Iraqi disarmament be moved to a reinforced monitoring and verification
phase meant to ensure Iraq did not redevelop weapons it had eliminated.
The panel said intrusive inspections would have to continue under this
phase, since the bulk of disarmament work had been finished, but
important issues remained to be settled. Analysts said this would
provide the US and Britain with ammunition to argue that sanctions on
Iraq should remain in place. 

The panel suggested that Unscom, the UN commission charged with Iraqi
disarmament, should be restructured.  But it did not call for abolishing
the commission and setting up a new one, as countries sympathetic to
Iraq on the Security Council have wanted. Analysts said the disarmament
panel failed to produce recommendations that might entice Iraq to agree
to the return of inspectors. The panel said it was up to the Security
Council to find ways of convincing Iraq to resume co-operation. 

It warned, however, that the longer inspection and monitoring activities
remained suspended, the greater the risk that Iraq might reconstitute
its proscribed weapons programmes or retain  prohibited items. A third
panel reporting to the Council this week dealt with Kuwaiti prisoners
taken by Iraq during its 1990 invasion. Its findings are believed to
have been that Iraq has yet to give adequate information.

********************
BBC Online, Wednesday, March 31, 1999 Published at 11:30 GMT 12:30 UK
World: Middle East
Proposal to ease Iraq oil scheme

Medical supplies are desperately needed in Iraq's hospitals

Foreign companies should be allowed to invest in Iraq's oil industry to
provide money for food and medicine, says a United Nations panel
investigating Iraq's humanitarian needs. "The gravity of the
humanitarian situation of the Iraqi people is indisputable and cannot be
overstated," the panel said. The group added that money from the sales
would still be expected to pass through the UN. 

Iraq's infant mortality rates are among the highest in the world.
Baghdad has always resisted the "oil-for-food" program, which lets Iraq
sell $5.2bn of oil every six months to buy humanitarian aid. But even
the permitted $5.2bn is not achieved at present, because of low oil
prices and production limits. 

Following the release of the report's details over the last few days,
senior officials in Washington welcomed the recommendations. They
suggested a more flexible future for relief programs - provided they
help the Iraqi people and not the government. 

No end to sanctions 

The four-member UN panel is not calling for an end to the oil embargo
imposed after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. Iraq has demanded for a
lifting of the embargo, while France has suggested such a move could
persuade Baghdad to allow weapons inspections to resume. Senior UN
officials on the panel said that even if stringent UN sanctions were
lifted "it will take a long time before the infrastructure is repaired
and the economy recovers." The permanent Iraqi mission to the UN had no
comment on Tuesday. 

Three panels 

The panel of experts was one of three established by the Security
Council in February to provide a basis for an Iraq policy which the 15
divided members could accept. The other panels, on disarmament, and the
repatriation of prisoners and property after the invasion of Kuwait,
have also reported recently. The disarmament group recommended that a
more intrusive long-term monitoring system be set up to complete the
disarmament of Iraq. The repatriation panel criticised Baghdad for the
absence of a credible explanation on missing archives and military
material. 

Observation mission 

The UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, has recommended the extension of
Unikom, the observation mission on the border of Iraq and Kuwait.
Concluding the half-yearly review of Unikom, Mr Annan said it continued
to receive the co-operation of the Iraqi and Kuwaiti authorities. It has
1,311 staff under a Finnish commander.

********************
U.N. Seeks New Iraq Relationship 
By Nicole Winfield, Associated Press Writer, Wednesday, March 31, 1999;
4:11 a.m. EST

UNITED NATIONS (AP) -- The Security Council has a host of
recommendations to try to chart a new relationship with Iraq in the
aftermath of December's U.S. and British airstrikes. More importantly,
however, is whether Iraq will agree to any of the council's final
decisions. Baghdad has been relatively silent for the past month as
three technical panels have tried to assess the status of Iraq's
disarmament, humanitarian situation and reparations to Kuwait, and make
recommendations. 

But Iraq is unlikely to be pleased with at least one conclusion of the
humanitarian panel, which in a report Tuesday didn't recommend lifting
the oil embargo Iraq has suffered under since its 1990 invasion of
Kuwait. Iraq has demanded the embargo be removed, arguing that it has
rid itself of its weapons of mass destruction and thereby satisfied U.N.
conditions for easing the sanctions. Instead, the panel recommended
improvements and some alterations to the U.N. humanitarian program,
which allows Iraq to sell limited amounts of oil -- $5.2 billion over
six months -- to provide humanitarian aid for its people. 

The report suggested the export limit be removed. And because Iraq
currently cannot meet the $5.2 billion limit due to low oil prices and
production limits, the report also suggested the council consider
authorizing foreign investment to improve Baghdad's export abilities. By
allowing private companies to bring in spare parts and maintain Iraq's
dilapidated oil machinery, the $300 million Iraq is allowed to spend to
buy oil spare parts and equipment could be funneled to buy more aid, the
report said. The panel also suggested, among other things, that Iraq be
allowed to buy humanitarian goods without consulting the U.N. sanctions
committee. 

The Security Council established the panels in February after coming
under pressure to better provide for Iraqis and in an attempt to restart
arms inspections that were halted by December airstrikes. The panel
looking into the status of Iraq's weapons programs said Monday there
were still disarmament-related questions but said answers could be found
through a system of monitoring. In the Kuwaiti report released Tuesday,
the panel concluded that Iraq had not provided sufficient explanations
about missing Kuwaitis or cooperated enough in returning looted
property. The Iraqi U.N. mission had no comment Tuesday.

********************
UN: Investment Recommended in Iraq 
By Nicole Winfield, Associated Press Writer, Tuesday, March 30, 1999;
9:59 p.m. EST

UNITED NATIONS (AP) -- The Security Council should consider letting
foreign companies invest in Iraq's oil industry so more proceeds can go
to buying food and medicine for needy Iraqi civilians, a U.N. panel
recommended Tuesday. Iraq should also be allowed to export as much oil
as it can to help finance U.N. humanitarian programs -- provided the
revenues continue to be funneled through the United Nations, the panel's
report said. ``The gravity of the humanitarian situation of the Iraqi
people is indisputable and cannot be overstated,'' the report said. 

Notably, the panel did not call for a lifting of the oil embargo imposed
after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. Iraq has demanded that the embargo be
lifted, and France has suggested such a move could persuade Baghdad to
allow weapons inspections to resume. A senior U.S. official said
Washington was willing to consider the reports recommendations and said
it would be flexible in providing more humanitarian relief -- provided
it helps the Iraqi people and not the government. 

The Security Council established the panel of experts in February after
coming under pressure to better provide for Iraqis and in an attempt to
chart a new relationship with Baghdad that fell apart after the
U.S.-British airstrikes in December. The 15-member council will consider
the report along with one on the status of Kuwaiti prisoners of war and
another on Iraq's disarmament. 

In the Kuwaiti report, also released Tuesday, the panel concluded that
Iraq had not provided sufficient explanations about missing Kuwaitis or
cooperated enough in returning looted property. The panel looking into
the status of Iraq's weapons programs said Monday that there were still
disarmament-related questions that needed answers. The Iraqi mission had
no comment Tuesday. 

Baghdad has always resisted the ``oil-for-food'' program, which lets
Iraq sell limited amounts of oil -- $5.2 billion worth over six months
-- to buy humanitarian aid. Iraq accuses Washington of using the program
to maintain sanctions, which cannot be lifted until U.N. weapons
inspectors report that Iraq has disarmed. Baghdad says it has met that
requirement. Iraq currently cannot meet the $5.2 billion it is allowed
to export because of low oil prices and production limits, the report
suggests the council consider authorizing production-sharing agreements
between Baghdad and foreign oil companies that would be monitored by the
United Nations. 

By allowing private companies to bring in spare parts and maintain the
oil infrastructure, the $300 million Iraq can spend to buy oil industry
spare parts and equipment could be funneled to buy more aid, the report
said. The panel also suggested Iraq be allowed to buy humanitarian goods
without consulting the U.N. sanctions committee.

********************
Iraq Ambassador: Lift Sanctions 
By Nicole Winfield, Associated Press Writer, Wednesday, March 31, 1999;
7:02 p.m. EST

UNITED NATIONS (AP) -- Iraq will most likely reject any proposal for
renewed U.N. relations that doesn't include an end to the punishing
sanctions imposed during the Persian Gulf War, Iraq's U.N. ambassador
said Wednesday. Ambassador Saeed Hasan gave his preliminary response to
recommendations this week by three technical panels, which met for a
month to assess the status of Iraq's disarmament, humanitarian situation
and reparations to Kuwait. 

Hasan stressed that he hadn't read the panel's recommendations and
hadn't received any official reaction from Baghdad. But he said reports
of the proposals indicated ``no real solutions'' to the problems Iraqis
face after more than eight years of sanctions which have crippled Iraq's
economy. ``Our position is clear,'' Hasan said in an interview.
``Anything short of lifting sanctions, I don't think there is a way
out.'' 

But the humanitarian panel didn't recommend lifting the oil embargo
imposed on Iraq after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Iraq had demanded an
end to the embargo and France had suggested lifting it as a way to
persuade Baghdad to allow U.N. oversight of its weapons programs resume.


Instead, the panel suggested a series of improvements to the U.N.
oil-for-food program, which lets Iraq sell limited amounts of oil to buy
food and medicine for its people. Because Iraq currently cannot meet the
$5.2 billion limit due to low oil prices and production limits, the
report suggests the council consider authorizing foreign investment to
improve Baghdad's export abilities. The oil-for-food program, ``is not
working and it won't work,'' even with the improvements, Hasan said.
``It really destroyed the Iraqi economy.'' 

The panel looking into the status of Iraq's weapons programs said there
were still disarmament-related questions -- but said answers could be
found through a system of monitoring. When asked whether Baghdad could
live with monitors taking over the more confrontational
disarmament-related work of U.N. weapons inspectors, Hasan replied:
``Sanctions lifting is something Iraq might live with, not transferring
certain disarmament issues to monitoring.'' ``We think all disarmament
requirements have been achieved,'' he said. 

The Security Council is still badly divided over the December airstrikes
which halted inspections. While discussions are expected to start next
week, no decisions are expected for some time. ``There's a lot of meat
there to discuss,'' Britain's U.N. Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock said
Wednesday. ``But remember that the politics of this has got to click in
due course, and we'll see how the council plays out.'' 

The United States and Britain have more strictly enforced the no-fly
zones over northern and southern Iraq, while Iraq has challenged those
patrols. The zones are designed to protect dissidents in those parts of
Iraq. Allied jets have repeatedly attacked Iraq's air defense system,
most recently on March 19 in the southern no-fly zone.

********************
Baghdad: London's suggestions an attempt to keep sanctions forever
Arabic News, Iraq, Politics, 3/31/99

Iraq has opposed British suggestions to upgrade the oil-for-food
program, considering it an attempt to keep economic sanctions against
Iraq forever. The British ambassador at the United Nations, Jeremy
Greenstock, has suggested forcing Iraq to put is petroleum exports under
the supervision of the United Nations and allowing the delay of Iraq's
payments to the Gulf War compenation fund. Meanwhile, an Iraqi official
source accused Britain "of seeking to obtain comprehensive control over
his country and keeping the Iraqi people as a lasting hostage to an
unjust embargo."

********************
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