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Re: [casi-analysis] IPO's Iraq News Analysis: Nov 19, 2004

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That would be a recipe for disaster. Re-Baathification
never happened. Negroponte objected to many of the re-
Baathification plans. The Iraqi government more or less did
what the Americans wanted. E.g. no amnesty was given to
people suspected in involvement in attacks on coalition

If you use the US military to ''defeat'' the Baathists,
then you may get little more security, but at the price of
turning Iraq into a police state. The elections in Iraq
would then only be a little more democratic than the
elections organised by Saddam Hussein.

Clearly a democracy can only work if almost 100% of the
people are in favor of a democratic system. Imagine what
would have happened in the US if 1% of the Kerry supporters
had taken up arms to overthrow Bush! So, any move toward a
democracy in Iraq must necessarily involve convincing
people to voluntarily give up violence.

Quoting Yasser Alaskary <>:

>   1.. Stopping the process of re-Baathification. Why it
should come as a
> surprise that the new Iraqi security forces continue to
be 'infiltrated'
> when Baathists are actively recruited and reinstated in
top-level positions
> is staggering. Building Iraq's security around the people
who wish to
> destroy it is sheer stupidity and dangerously
incompetent. Furthermore,
> this process has only served to alienate those who
suffered under the Baath
> regime, especially amongst the Shia and Kurds, and has
done nothing to
> pacify or appease non-Baathist Sunnis.
>   2.. Actively rounding up any 'former' Baathists
associated with Saddam's
> security forces and local Baathist ring-leaders. For the
first few months
> after the war, when most Baathists had fled their
neighbourhoods and were
> in hiding, the security situation was remarkably calm.
When they found they
> were not being hunted, they grew in confidence and began
to launch attacks.
> There has been a sustained upsurge in terrorist activity
since then,
> dramatically increasing after re-Baathification was
launched in the summer.
> We should have them on the run, not giving them the
freedom and time to
> plan and organize more terror. They should be living in
fear of being
> arrested, not inflicting fear on the people of Iraq.
>   3.. Reinvigorate the process of de-Baathification. The
Baath Party has
> not been defeated by the war as many of its key members
are still in
> positions of power, helping their 'comrades' on the
outside (see the IPO's
> November 1, 2004 analysis for examples of this).
> Before an enemy can be defeated, it must be identified.
The US-led
> coalition and the Interim Iraqi Government can continue
to convince
> themselves that the insurgency is not Baathist at its
core; they can
> continue with the failed process of re-Baathification.
However, the
> Fallujah phenomenon will be repeated again and again and
Iraq's security
> will spiral even more out of control and ultimately
innocent Iraqis will
> pay the price.
> The can find this page online at:
> News Analysis brought to you by the Iraqi Prospect
Organisation -
> The Iraqi Prospect Organisation is a network of young
Iraqi men and women
> promoting democratic values in Iraq.
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