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[casi-analysis] Garfield comments on the apparent drop in Iraqi infant mortality

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Prof. Richard Garfield (one of the Lancet study's authors) responded to an email
questioning the rapid apparent drop in Iraqi infant mortality.

Dr. Garfield replied that "one can't compare a cluster sample survey (Lancet's
methodology) to a much larger demographic survey ... the cluster sample has a
wide CI when you get down to age specific causes."  Dr. Garfield goes on to say,
"I trust the 1999 UNICEF piece, but that is only through 1998.  We know
mortality declined since then, and we still don't know how much."

Note that while the CPA mortality rates from earlier this year remained high,
Dr. Garfield doesn't grant these data much weight.

On a related note, a link posted by Daniel O'Huiginn continues to accumulate
informed analysis and bears repeated visits.  See

Drew Hamre
Golden Valley, MN USA

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