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[casi-analysis] Fw: 100.000 IRAQI DEATHS ! WORLD WIDE PETITION AGAINST THE ESCALATION !



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IMPORTANT:

World Wide Petition Against the Escalation in Iraq

an initiative of the BRussells tribunal

endorsed by the World Tribunal on Iraq

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

If you want to sign, PLEASE REPLY WITH "I SIGN"  TO: Info@Brusselstribunal.org. If possible add 
profession and locality.


_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Dear all,

Prof. Jean Bricmont, a Belgian scientist, specialist in theoretical physics, and author on 
politics, who was member of the prosecution at the BRussells Tribunal, has written a short but 
strong statement "Stop the escalation" (see the text after this message, in English, French and 
Dutch). It has been signed already by several distinghuised people (see underneath).

We feel that we can't wait any longer to do something. We hope that you and/or your organisation 
will sign this letter, giving the call of prof Bricmont the resonance it deserves and he aimed at 
in writing it.

Now that we know, since the evening of 28th of October 2004, from an article in the Lancet, based 
on a survey by Johns Hopkins University that 100.000 Iraqi's died in the war, we feel this petition 
is urgent, so we send it out now.

We hope you join us in our outcry over the ongoing massacres by signing this petition against the 
escalation.

Yours in the struggle for peace

Lieven De Cauter, Dirk Adriaensens, Hana Al Bayaty and Patrick Deboosere,
on behalf of the BRussells Tribunal committee.(see www.brusselstribunal.org)

This letter is being distributed with full support of the the World Tribunal on Iraq (see 
www.worldtribunal.org) of which the BRussells tribunal Committee is part.
_____________________________________________________________________________

If you want to sign, PLEASE REPLY WITH "I SIGN"  TO: Info@Brusselstribunal.org. If possible add 
profession and locality.


_________________________________________________________________________________

 please spread as largely as possible.


STOP THE ESCALATION


"Excluding information from Falluja, a Lancet report of october 29 estimates that 100,000 more 
Iraqis died than would have been expected had the invasion not occurred. Eighty-four percent of the 
deaths were reported to be caused by the actions of Coalition forces and 95 percent of those deaths 
were due to air strikes and artillery."(Reuters, October 28, 2004)

Far from being over, the war in Iraq has only begun.  The United States do not seem to be able to 
defeat the Iraqi resistance with the means they have been using. But neither can they accept their 
setbacks.  The very arrogance with which the war was declared and waged has put all their prestige 
at stake in Iraq and, thereby, decades of efforts to assure their world domination.  The stakes are 
even greater than in the Vietnam war. The United States cannot get out of Iraq unless they leave 
behind a friendly government, but today they have so few friends in that part of the world that no 
democratic election can produce such a government.

        As a result, one must seriously anticipate a military escalation after the elections -- 
immediately in case Bush is returned to office, perhaps more gradually should Kerry win. But the 
Democratic candidate has no more intention than Bush of withdrawing from Iraq.  The U.S. government 
will seek to defeat the resistance by all possible means. The effort is already underway to 
demonize the resistance in world opinion by associating it with abductions and murders condemned by 
virtually the whole spectrum of political organizations in the Arab world.


        We demand that the United States face up to reality, unconditionally withdraw their troops 
from Iraq, and draw the necessary conclusions as to the unacceptable nature of preventive war. It 
is an illusion to ask that the U.S. forces remain until Iraq is pacified or stabilized, because 
their very presence is so hated that it constitutes the main obstacle to any sort of pacification.

        Meanwhile, we affirm that we shall oppose by all peaceful and legal methods every attempt 
to crush the Iraqi resistance by a military escalation such as was attempted during the Vietnam 
war. We call on all governments to grant asylum to American military personnel refusing to serve in 
Iraq. We shall do our best to spread all available information to counter the war propaganda, and 
we shall try to mobilize world public opinion, as in 2002, to demand that the United States abandon 
their efforts to impose a military solution on Iraq.




_________________________________________________________________________________


CONTRE L'ESCALADE




 "excluant information sur Falluja, un rapport publié par The Lancet le 29 octobre estime que 
100.000 Irakiens de plus ont mouru que expecté si l'invasion n'aurait pas eu lieu. 84 pourcent des 
morts sont rapporté d'être due aux actions des forces de la coalition et 95 de ces morts sont du a 
des attaques aeriens et d' artillerie "(Reuters, October 28, 2004)

Loin d'être finie, la guerre en Irak ne fait que commencer. Les États-Unis ne semblent pas arriver 
à vaincre la résistance irakienne avec les moyens qu'ils utilisent. Mais ils ne peuvent pas non 
plus reculer: l'arrogance même avec laquelle la guerre a été déclarée et menée fait en sorte que 
tout leur prestige est en jeu en Irak et, avec lui, des décennies d'efforts visant à la domination 
du monde. L'enjeu pour eux est encore plus considérable que lors de la guerre du Viêt-Nam. Les 
États-Unis ne peuvent quitter l'Irak qu'en laissant derrière eux un gouvernement ami, mais ils 
n'ont aujourd'hui que très peu d'amis dans cette partie du monde et aucune élection démocratique ne 
pourra produire un tel gouvernement.

Par conséquent, il faut sérieusement s'attendre à une escalade militaire après les élections. 
Immédiatement si Bush est élu, plus lentement peut-être si c'est Kerry. Mais celui-ci n'a, pas plus 
que Bush, la volonté de se retirer d'Irak. Ils chercheront à vaincre la résistance par tous les 
moyens. On tente déjà de démoniser celle-ci dans l'opinion publique mondiale en l'associant à des 
enlèvements et des assassinats condamnés par la quasi-totalité des organisations politiques du 
monde arabe.


Nous demandons que les États-Unis fassent preuve de réalisme, retirent leurs troupes d'Irak sans 
condition, et en tirent les conclusions qui s'imposent concernant le caractère inaceptable des 
guerres préventives. Il est illusoire de demander que leurs forces armées restent jusqu'à ce que 
l'Irak soit pacifié ou stabilisé, parce que leur présence est tellement détestée qu'elle constitue 
le principal obstacle à toute pacification. En attendant, nous affirmons que nous nous opposerons 
par tous les moyens pacifiques et légaux à toute tentative d'écraser la résistance irakienne par 
une escalade militaire, comme cela a été tenté lors de la guerre du Viêt-Nam. Nous demandons que 
tous les gouvernements accordent l'asile politique aux déserteurs américains. Nous nous efforcerons 
de diffuser toutes les informations permettant de contrer la propagande de guerre et nous tenterons 
de mobiliser l'opinion publique mondiale, comme en 2002, afin d'exiger que les États-Unis renoncent 
à chercher une solution militaire à la situation en Irak.



 
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



TEGEN DE ESCALATIE





" Met uitsluiting van cijfers uit fallaja, een rapport gepubliceerd in The Lancet van 29 oktober 
stelt dat naar schatting 100.000 Irakezen meer zijn omgekomen dan het geval zou geweest zijn indien 
de invasie niet had plaats gevonden. 84 % van deze doden zouden volgens het rapport veroorzaakt 
zijn door acties van de coalitie troepen en 95 % ervan zijn te wijten aan luchtaanvallen en 
artillerie. "(Reuters, October 28, 2004)





De oorlog in Iraq is verre van voorbij. Hij is pas begonnen. De Verenigde Staten schijnen er niet 
in te slagen het Iraaks verzet te overwinnen met de middelen die zij nu inzetten. Maar ze kunen 
evenmin terug: de arrogantie waarmee de oorlog werd verklaard en gevoerd maakt dat hun prestige op 
het spel staat in Irak en daarmee ook decennia van pogingen tot werelddominantie. De inzet is 
groter dan in de oorlog in Vietnam. De Verenigde Staten kunnen Irak slechts verlaten als ze er een 
bevriende regering kunnen achterlaten, maar ze hebben in dit deel van de wereld vandaag de dag erg 
weinig vrienden en geen enkele democratische verkiezing kan een dergelijke regering voortbrengen.




Dus moet men zich verwachten aan een militaire escalatie na de verkiezingen. Onmiddellijk indien 
Bush wordt verkozen, iets trager misschien indien het Kerry wordt. Maar deze heeft, evenmin als 
Bush, de wil om zich uit Irak terug te trekken.  Ze zullen proberen het verzet te overwinnen met 
alle mogelijke middelen. Men is reeds bezig om het verzet te demoniseren in de ogen van de publieke 
wereldopinie  door het in verband te brengen met ontvoeringen en mooden die door zowat alle 
politieke organisaties van de Arabische wereld worden veroordeeld.



Wij vragen dat  de Verenigde Staten zich realistisch opstellen, hun troepen onvoorwaardelijk 
terugtrekken en conclusies trekken omtrent het onaanvaardbare karakter van preventieve oorlogen. 
Het is een illusie om te vragen dat hun troepen blijven tot Irak zou zijn gepacificeerd of 
gestabiliseerd, omdat hun aanwezigheid zo erg verafschuwd wordt dat ze het belangrijkste obstakel 
vormt voor elke pacificatie.



In afwachting, bevestigen wij dat wij ons met alle vreedzame en legale middelen zullen verzetten 
tegen elke poging om het Iraaks verzet te breken door een militaire escalatie, zoals dat eertijds 
geprobeerd werd in Vietnam. Wij vragen dat alle regeringen politiek asiel toekennen aan Amerikaanse 
deserteurs. Wij zullen ons inspannen om alle informatie te verspreiden om de oorlogspropaganda 
tegen te gaan. En wij zullen proberen om de publieke opinie van de wereld te mobiliseren, zoals in 
2002, om te eisen dat de Verenigde staten afzien van een militaire oplossing van de situatie in 
Irak.



first provisional list of signatories (30.10.04)



Jean Bricmont, prof. of theoretical physics and political publicist, writer of this petition, 
Belgium

Lieven De Cauter, prof of philosophy, Belgium

Patrick Deboosere, demographer, Belgium

Hana Al Bayaty, film maker, Iraq/France

Dirk Adriaensens, SOS Iraq, Belgium

Ayse Berktay, WTI organiser, Turkey

 Abdul Ilah Al Bayaty, author, Iraq/France

Haifa Zangana, Iraqi-Kurdish novelist and journalist, Irak/UK

Ahmedzaib Khan Mahsud, Architect / Planner, Doctoral candidate, K. U. Leuven

Dr.Haithem Alshaibani, Prof of.Physics, UAE

tareq aldelaimi, writer and political activist, Iraq

Salah Omar Al Ali, Chief Editor of Al Wifaq Al Democraty, Iraq

Ed Herman, Professor Emeritus of Finance, Pennsylvania, economist and media analyst, USA

Michael Parenti, author, USA

William Blum, author of books on US foreign policy, Washington, DC

Richard Plunz, professor urban design, New York

Pierre Galand, Senator, Belgium

Karen Parker, attorney, USA

Amy Bartholomew, Law professor, Canada

Tom Barry, Policy Director, Interhemispheric Resource Center (IRC), USA

John Saxe-Fernández,  Professor, Mexico

Joachim Guilliard, journalist, Germany

Alkan Kabakcioglu, Posdoctoral Fellow in Physics, University of Padova, Padova, ITALY

Erik Swyngedouw, prof of social geography, Oxford

Ur Shlonsky, Professor Geneva, Switzerland

Xavier Bekaert, theoretical physicist, Paris

Nicolas Boulanger, Chercheur en Physique Théorique, Belgium

Bruno Vitale, physicist, Geneva (Switzerland)

Biju Mathew, Professor, USA

Anton Regenberg, former director of the Brussels Goethe Institute

Anthony Alessandrini, New York University Students for Justice in Palestine, USA

Ayca Cubukcu, Ph.D. student, Columbia University, WTI-New York organizer, New York

Madiha Tahir, student and activist, USA

Rania Jawad, Graduate Student, New York City

Gizem Arikan, Graduate Student, USA

Stephanie Schwartz, New York, NY

Ozlem Altiok, Peace Action of Denton, Texas, USA

Obie Hunt, therapy aide Manhattan Psychiatric Center, USA

Pierre Py, Dictionnaire Historique de la Suisse

Janine Tillmann Py, Switserland

Silvia Cattori, Journaliste, Suisse

Adriana Hernandez Alarcon Mexico Doctor,  member  and founder of the organization "Not in Our Name 
México"

Aracely Cortes Galan Mexico,  member  and founder of the organization "Not in Our Name México"

Federico Campbell, México, Journalist,   member  and founder of the organization "Not in Our Name 
México"

Ramsés Ancira, México, Jorunalist, member of "Not In Our Name Mexico"·

Rosa García, México, member and founder of  of the organization "Not in Our Name México"

Gabriel Perez Rendon Mexico Doctor, member  and founder of the organization "Not in Our Name México"

Annelies De Backer, Belgium

Griet Boddez, director's secretary, Belgium

Ariella Masboungi, Architect and urbanist, France

Stefan Boeykens, Architect-Engineer, Leuven, Belgium

Paul Blondeel, urban research and consultancy, Amsterdam

Daniela Peluso, Anthropologist, Canterbury, UK

Erling Fidjestøl, social worker, Norway

Kaat Boon, civil engineer architect, Brussels

Elise Christensen, Peace Council, Norway

Catherine Denis, Médecin généraliste, Belgium

Simten Cosar, Ankara, Turkey

Enrique Ferro, Peace Activist, Brussels

Behcet Akalin, Istanbul-Turkey, IT Director

Saul Landau, journalist, USA

Noam Chomsky, author, USA





_____________________________________________________________________________

If you want to sign, PLEASE REPLY WITH "I SIGN"  TO: Info@Brusselstribunal.org. If possible add 
profession and locality.


_________________________________________________________________________________





------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

background :

100,000 Iraqi Deaths

By EMMA ROSS, AP Medical Writer

LONDON - A survey of deaths in Iraqi households estimates that as many as 100,000 more people may 
have died throughout the country in the 18 months after the U.S. invasion than would be expected 
based on the death rate before the war. There is no official figure for the number of Iraqis killed 
since the conflict began, but some non-governmental estimates range from 10,000 to 30,000. As of 
Wednesday, 1,081 U.S. servicemen had been killed, according to the U.S. Defense Department. The 
scientists who wrote the report concede that the data they based their projections on were of 
"limited precision," because the quality of the information depends on the accuracy of the 
household interviews used for the study. The interviewers were Iraqi, most of them doctors.

Designed and conducted by researchers at Johns Hopkins University, Columbia University and the 
Al-Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, the study is being published Thursday on the Web site of The 
Lancet medical journal. The survey indicated violence accounted for most of the extra deaths seen 
since the invasion, and air strikes from coalition forces caused most of the violent deaths, the 
researchers wrote in the British-based journal. "Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition 
forces were women and children," they said. The report was released just days before the U.S. 
presidential election, and the lead researcher said he wanted it that way. The Lancet routinely 
publishes papers on the Web before they appear in print, particularly if it considers the findings 
of urgent public health interest.

Those reports then appear later in the print issue of the journal. The journal's spokesmen said 
they were uncertain which print issue the Iraqi report would appear in and said it was too late to 
make Friday's issue, and possibly too late for the Nov. 5 edition. Les Roberts, the lead researcher 
from Johns Hopkins, said the article's timing was up to him. "I emailed it in on Sept. 30 under the 
condition that it came out before the election," Roberts told The Asocciated Press. "My motive in 
doing that was not to skew the election. My motive was that if this came out during the campaign, 
both candidates would be forced to pledge to protect civilian lives in Iraq (news - web sites). "I 
was opposed to the war and I still think that the war was a bad idea, but I think that our science 
has transcended our perspectives," Roberts said. "As an American, I am really, really sorry to be 
reporting this."

Richard Peto, an expert on study methods who was not involved with the research, said the approach 
the scientists took is a reasonable one to investigate the Iraq death toll. However, it's possible 
that they may have zoned in on hotspots that might not be representative of the death toll across 
Iraq, said Peto, a professor of medical statistics at Oxford University in England. To conduct the 
survey, investigators visited 33 neighborhoods spread evenly across the country in September, 
randomly selecting clusters of 30 households to sample. Of the 988 households visited, 808, 
consisting of 7,868 people, agreed to participate in the survey. At each one they asked how many 
people lived in the home and how many births and deaths there had been since January 2002. The 
scientists then compared death rates in the 15 months before the invasion with those that occurred 
during the 18 months after the attack and adjusted those numbers to account for the different time 
periods.

Even though the sample size appears small, this type of survey is considered accurate and 
acceptable by scientists and was used to calculate war deaths in Kosovo in the late 1990s. The 
investigators worked in teams of three. Five of the six Iraqi interviewers were doctors and all six 
were fluent in English and Arabic. In the households reporting deaths, the person who died had to 
be living there at the time of the death and for more than two months before to be counted. In an 
attempt at firmer confirmation, the interviewers asked for death certificates in 78 households and 
were provided them 63 times. There were 46 deaths in the surveyed households before the war. After 
the invasion, there were 142 deaths. That is an increase from 5 deaths per 1,000 people per year to 
12.3 per 1,000 people per year - more than double.

However, more than a third of the post-invasion deaths were reported in one cluster of households 
in the city Falluja, where fighting has been most intense recently. Because the fighting was so 
severe there, the numbers from that location may have exaggerated the overall picture. When the 
researchers recalculated the effect of the war without the statistics from Falluja, the deaths end 
up at 7.9 per 1,000 people per year - still 1.5 times higher than before the war. Even with Falluja 
factored out, the survey "indicates that the death toll associated with the invasion and occupation 
of Iraq is more likely than not about 100,000 people, and may be much higher," the report said. The 
most common causes of death before the invasion of Iraq were heart attacks, strokes and other 
chronic diseases. However, after the invasion, violence was recorded as the primary cause of death 
and was mainly attributed to coalition forces - with about 95 percent of those deaths caused by 
bombs or fire from helicopter gunships. Violent deaths - defined as those brought about by the 
intentional act of others - were reported in 15 of the 33 clusters. The chances of a violent death 
were 58 times higher after the invasion than before it, the researchers said.

Twelve of the 73 violent deaths were not attributed to coalition forces. The researchers said 28 
children were killed by coalition forces in the survey households. Infant mortality rose from 29 
deaths per 1,000 live births before the war to 57 deaths per 1,000 afterward. The researchers 
estimated the nationwide death toll due to the conflict by multiplying the difference between the 
two death rates by the estimated population of Iraq - 24.4 million at the start of the war. The 
result was then multiplied by 18 months, the average period between the invasion and the survey 
interviews. "We estimate that there were 98,000 extra deaths during the postwar period in the 97 
percent of Iraq represented by all the clusters except Falluja," the researchers said in the 
journal.

"This isn't about individual soldiers doing bad things. This appears to be a problem with the 
approach to occupation in Iraq," Roberts said. The researchers called for further confirmation by 
an independent body such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, or the World Health 
Organization (news - web sites). The study was funded by the Center for International Emergency 
Disaster and Refugee Studies at Johns Hopkins University and by the Small Arms Survey in Geneva, 
Switzerland, a research project based at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva.

http://www.thelancet.com





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