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[ This message has been sent to you via the CASI-analysis mailing list ] [ Presenting plain-text part of multi-format email ] IPO's Iraq News Analysis July 22, 2004 a.. Since Re-Ba'athification started a month ago, Ba'athist strongholds in the North and West of Baghdad have not subsided, neither have kidnappings, bombings or assassinations. Re-Ba'athification has not achieved its objective of improving the security situation, resulting in negative aspects only: 1. Iraqis begin to lose trust in the new Iraq bringing about an era of democracy; 2. Danger of creating civil unrest if Iraqis see the state is not dealing with tormentors, then they will resort to taking matters in their own hands, which occurred in 1991. If anything, Bremer's early de-Ba'athification decision saved Iraq from wide spread revenge killings. b.. Iraq will have a national census in October, replacing the plan of Karina Parelli (UN Election Assistance Team Head), who stated in June that the elections team may rely on the ration card database and other government databases to build voter registration lists. This would have been disastrous for Iraq's upcoming election because the ration card database is deeply flawed. The Hajj pilgrimage allocations, executed in December and which were based on that database, resulted in gross overestimation of population size of districts that were Ba'athi strongholds, and underestimation of population size from districts that were hostile to Saddam. a.. Despite the opening and booming of the Iraq Stock Exchange, with continued insecurity impinging the economy and reconstruction, Allawi announced the formation of a new spy agency. This is a positive development which, along with tighter border control, will no doubt improve the security situation. However, the new agency must preserve and respect the human rights and freedoms of Iraqis, and not morph into the much-feared Mukhabarat of Saddam. a.. Saddam heard the charges against his atrocities. A public and thorough trial is vital for healing the wounds of Iraqis, and displaying the degree of his crimes to the international community. The trial must be fair, more for the victims than the defendant, whose guilt is unquestionable, though the extent of his guilt is. News Analysis brought to you by the Iraqi Prospect Organization: http://www.iprospect.org.uk Promoting democracy for Iraq _______________________________________ Sent via the CASI-analysis mailing list To unsubscribe, visit http://lists.casi.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/casi-analysis All postings are archived on CASI's website at http://www.casi.org.uk