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[casi-analysis] IPO Iraq Analysis



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IPO's Iraq News Analysis
July 22, 2004

  a.. Since Re-Ba'athification started a month ago, Ba'athist strongholds in the North and West of 
Baghdad have not subsided, neither have kidnappings, bombings or assassinations. Re-Ba'athification 
has not achieved its objective of improving the security situation, resulting in negative aspects 
only:
  1. Iraqis begin to lose trust in the new Iraq bringing about an era of democracy;
  2. Danger of creating civil unrest if Iraqis see the state is not dealing with tormentors, then 
they will resort to taking matters in their own hands, which occurred in 1991. If anything, 
Bremer's early de-Ba'athification decision saved Iraq from wide spread revenge killings.

  b.. Iraq will have a national census in October, replacing the plan of Karina Parelli (UN 
Election Assistance Team Head), who stated in June that the elections team may rely on the ration 
card database and other government databases to build voter registration lists. This would have 
been disastrous for Iraq's upcoming election because the ration card database is deeply flawed. The 
Hajj pilgrimage allocations, executed in December and which were based on that database, resulted 
in gross overestimation of population size of districts that were Ba'athi strongholds, and 
underestimation of population size from districts that were hostile to Saddam.
  a.. Despite the opening and booming of the Iraq Stock Exchange, with continued insecurity 
impinging the economy and reconstruction, Allawi announced the formation of a new spy agency. This 
is a positive development which, along with tighter border control, will no doubt improve the 
security situation. However, the new agency must preserve and respect the human rights and freedoms 
of Iraqis, and not morph into the much-feared Mukhabarat of Saddam.
  a.. Saddam heard the charges against his atrocities. A public and thorough trial is vital for 
healing the wounds of Iraqis, and displaying the degree of his crimes to the international 
community. The trial must be fair, more for the victims than the defendant, whose guilt is 
unquestionable, though the extent of his guilt is.

News Analysis brought to you by the Iraqi Prospect Organization: http://www.iprospect.org.uk
Promoting democracy for Iraq



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