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[casi-analysis] casi-news digest, Vol 1 #114 - 2 msgs

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Today's Topics:

   1. FPIF News | Post-Conflict Lessons From Iraq (IRC Communications)
   2. 1.Iraqi oil /US ...2, Iraqi oil /Iran (ppg)


Message: 1
From: "IRC Communications" <>
Organization: Interhemispheric Resource Center
Subject: FPIF News | Post-Conflict Lessons From Iraq
Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 14:17:34 -0600

[ Presenting plain-text part of multi-format email ]

What's New at FPIF
"Working to make the U.S. a more responsible global leader and partner"

June 15, 2004

Introducing new material from Foreign Policy In Focus
Thoughts On Cordesman's "Post-Conflict" Lessons From Iraq
By Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.)

Anthony Cordesman, the thoughtful incumbent of the Arleigh Burke Chair in S=
trategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, titled his M=
ay 19, 2004 testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee "The 'P=
ost-Conflict' Lesson of Iraq and Afghanistan." Cordesman presented a devast=
ating critique of the pervasive lack of planning and preparedness throughou=
t the Executive Branch in general and the Pentagon and White House in parti=
cular for translating success in war into success in peace.

Most of Cordesman's points have been made before by him and by others. But =
they tend to assume increased gravitas by being assembled in one document t=
hat, while dwelling on Iraq and Afghanistan, also provides insight into reg=
ional consequences. And it is the latter that the rest of these remarks wil=
l address.

Dan Smith <> is a military affairs analyst for Foreign Policy i=
n Focus (online at, a retired U.S. army colonel and a senior =
fellow on Military Affairs at the Friends Committee on National Legislation=

See complete new FPIF commentary online at:

With printer-friendly PDF version at:


Distributed by FPIF:"A Think Tank Without Walls," a joint program of Interh=
emispheric Resource Center (IRC) and Institute for Policy Studies (IPS).

For more information, visit If you would like to add a name t=
o the "What's New At FPIF?" list, please email: communications@irc-online.o=
rg, giving your area of interest.

Also see our Progressive Response newsletter at:


Interhemispheric Resource Center (IRC)
Siri D. Khalsa
Outreach Coordinator

Siri D. Khalsa
Communications Coordinator
Interhemispheric Resource Center (IRC)

IRC Projects Online:
Americas Program (
Self-Determination In Focus (
Project Against the Present Danger (


Message: 2
From: "ppg" <>
To: <>
Subject: 1.Iraqi oil /US ...2, Iraqi oil /Iran
Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 01:33:25 -0400
alJazeera June 1

Iraqis fail to regain control of oil revenue
By Ahmed Janabi

The latest Iraqi attempts to recover control of the country's oil revenues
from the United States appear to have hit a dead end with a special
delegation being rebuffed in its bid to secure UN help.

The delegation has been in New York in a bid to petition the UN to exert
pressure on US occupation authorities, who currently preside over Iraq's oi=

It includes Hamid al-Bayati, a deputy in the Iraqi interim foreign ministry
and a spokesperson for the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

In New York since last week its members have so far failed to get an
audience with UN officials.

The control of Iraq's oil revenue has been controversial ever since the
US-led occupation of Iraq in 2003.

The US has imposed secrecy on oil deals, exportation, and use of revenues.
Iraqi officials have previously asked for access to oil revenues, but have
been turned down by the occupation Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)
headed by Paul Bremer.

Daylight robbery

Muzhir al-Dulaymi, spokesman for the League for the Defence of Iraqi
Peoples' Rights, told Aljazeera the US was systematically milking Iraq of
its oil.

***** "A daylight robbery is going in Iraq. I have first hand information
from sources in al-Bakr port in southern Iraq, and in the Turkish port of
Jihan, confirming that three million oil barrels are being taken out of Ira=
on a daily basis" al-Dulaymi said.

"Oil sale contracts only go to the Iraqi oil ministry for signing. They
cannot say a word about them; not to mention the fact that there are many
sealed contracts which the Iraqi ministry of oil is not notified of."

Al-Dulaymi says the Bush administration is benefiting from the process.

"When oil prices surpassed $30 last year, Bush sent his Energy Secretary to
the Middle East, who held talks with Saudi Arabia and other oil producers t=
reduce prices.

"But here we are now; oil prices have reached $40 and not a word from the
Bush administration. Why? Because they are benefitting. Definitely, they
will not sacrifice such revenue and give it to Iraqis." *******

US officials have consistently denied that the 2003 invasion was motivated
by a desire to seize Iraq's vast oil reserves.

The latest charge came from the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the UK and
Ireland Prince Turki al-Faisal.

"What we read and hear from our commentators in America and sometimes
congressional sources, if you remember going back a year ago, there was the
issue of the oil reserves in Iraq and that in a year or two they would be
producing so much oil in Iraq that, as it were, the war would pay for
itself," the envoy told the Irish Independent on Monday.

"[This] indicated that there were those in America who were thinking in
those terms of acquiring the natural resources of Iraq for America."

Oil experts agree that in the coming decades, oil resources will run low,
and some current oil producers will not be able to maintain current output.

Iraq possesses oil reserves equal to those of US, Canada, Mexico, Western
Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and non-middle eastern Asian countries put

The deposed Iraqi president Saddam Hussein said in the 1970s that Iraq woul=
provide the last drop of oil in the world.

In 2020, the world will need 112 million barrels of oil a day. Iraq and Ara=
Gulf states are the only countries which will be able to provide such
quantities of oil.

Abd al-Hay Zalloum, an oil expert and author told Aljazeera before the
invasion of Iraq that oil should not be forgotten as a US war aim.

"The US produces six to seven million barrels of oil a day. That means oil
in the US will be dried out in a decade" he said "the Bush administration
sees Iraq as a valuable resource."

Dr Mohamad al-Douri, the former Iraqi ambassador to the UN believes that th=
US might give Iraqis control over oil revenues.

"Currently, the US is not after oil revenues. What is more important to the=
is to secure oil flow in the coming decade, when oil resources run low",
al-Douri said "Their goal now is not the money, but to control the oil flow
itself in the future.

"At present Iraq=92s oil exportation is not huge, but Iraq possesses one th=
of the world=92s oil reserves, and this is what the US is after. They want =
secure their future."

During the UN sanctions on Iraq 1990-2003, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the
United Arab Emirates made up for Iraq=92s absence from the oil market.

2.  ***  Iran takes on west's control of oil trading ***

Terry Macalister
Wednesday June 16, 2004,3858,4948337-103676,00.html
The Guardian

Iran is to launch an oil trading market for Middle East and Opec producers
that could threaten the supremacy of London's International Petroleum
A contract to design and establish a new platform for crude, natural gas an=
petrochemical trades is expected to be signed with an international
consortium within days.

Top oil producing countries are determined to seize more control of trading
after being advised that existing markets such as the IPE and Nymex in New
York are not working in their favour.

Three years ago a former compliance director accused the IPE of manipulatin=
prices, although these allegations were dismissed after an investigation.

The Tehran oil bourse is scheduled to open in 2005, according to its
architect, Mohammad Javad Asemipour, who is a personal adviser to the
Iranian energy minister.

"We are in the final stage of choosing a concession for what is going to be
a very big development for us and the region," he said.

The expected winner of the contract is a consortium of Iranian and
international companies known as Wimpole, which is understood to include PA
Consulting and a former director of Nymex.

Mr Asemipour has been in London in the last few weeks visiting commodity
traders to encourage them to participate in his new venture.

He played down the dangers that the new exchange could eventually pose for
the IPE or Nymex, saying he hoped they might be able to cooperate in some

Some industry experts have warned the Iranians and other Opec producers tha=
western exchanges are controlled by big financial and oil corporations,
which have a vested interest in market volatility.

The IPE, bought in 2001 by a consortium that includes BP, Goldman Sachs and
Morgan Stanley, was unwilling to discuss the Iranian move yesterday. "We
would not have any comment to make on it at this stage," said an IPE

Many of the contracts for crude oil being exported from producers such as
Iran and Saudi Arabia are linked to prices for the UK North Sea Brent blend=

The Middle East producers would like to establish a rival Persian Gulf blen=
contract alongside hedging mechanisms that could operate around the new

The regional initiative is significant but not entirely new. The Dubai
Mercantile Exchange recently tried to develop an oil trading market with th=
help of Nymex but it collapsed through lack of interest.

The Tehran bourse is considered to be more likely to succeed because Iran
exports 2.7m barrels a day and produces 13m tonnes of petrochemicals every
year. The country has the second biggest oil reserves in the world behind
Saudi Arabia.

But Adam Sieminski, oil analyst with Deutsche Bank in London, questioned
whether it would succeed. "The IPE and Nymex work because there are many
sellers and many buyers. They are regulated markets based on
well-established systems for trading and I think the Iranians will struggle
to duplicate that."

Mr Asemipour said the new project is in tune with both Islamic and local
constitutional law and has been given the go-ahead by government and
parliament as part of the country's five-year plan.

=B7 The world is not short of oil and reserves should last 40 years at toda=
rates of consumption, according to BP chief executive John Browne.

There was "considerable scope" for proven reserves and production levels to
keep on rising in Russia and elsewhere, he said in BP's statistical review
of world energy.

Production in some areas such as the North Sea might have peaked but "this
is no reason for current high prices," said BP chief economist Peter Davies=
Oil prices during 2003 were the highest for 20 years despite world oil
production growing by 3.8%, higher than the 2.1% increase in demand, BP

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