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[casi-analysis] more on interim constitution and democracy

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Roger Myerson, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, shared
with Juan Cole the following on the Interim Constitution:

"Article 55 . . .may be a key to the evolution of power in Iraq. This
specifies that any group that has taken control of a Governate Council
before 1 July 2004 under the CPA can retain control "until free, direct,
and full elections, conducted pursuant to the law, are held." There is no
indication of when such Governate elections may occur. In particular,
these Governate elections are not linked to the National Assembly
elections, nor is it clear whether the National Assembly has the power to
call Governate elections (since "no member of any region government,
governor, member of any governate... may be dismissed by the federal
government"). As I read it, the suggestion is that local elections may not
be generally required until a final constitution is approved. Article 56
also promises that these Governate councils will get a significant role in
administering the country.

"So if an aspiring national leader can develop a factional network that has
widespread control of Governate councils (established without elections
under the CPA), then that leader may be able to control local elections to
the National Assembly in these Governates and may dominate the national
political process thereafter.

"I have written essays and professional articles [2, 3, below] arguing that,
promote democracy in occupied Iraq, local elections should have been held
first and then local councils should have be given leading roles in the
constitution of the provisional government. But if local elections are
indefinitely postponed, then the establishment of a system of autonomous
and unelected Governate leaders could instead seriously jeopardize the
development of democracy in Iraq. Many people may be thinking only of
Kurdish concerns for autonomy when they read Articles 55 and 56. But we
should recognize the power of local authorities throughout the country to
administer and control the elections to the National Assembly. These local
councils hold the keys to national power in the new Iraq.

The Basic Law's ambiguity about the timing of local elections may give
some hope. For example, if the CPA before June were to administer free
democratic elections for local councils in all Governates, then the
significance of these articles would be reversed.

Roger Myerson "

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Roger B. Myerson
W.C.Norby Professor of Economics
Department of Economics
University of Chicago
1126 East 59th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
posted by Juan Cole at
3/11/2004 09:17:06 AM

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