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[casi-analysis] IPO Iraq News Analysis: Jan 6, 2004

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News Analysis
January 6, 2004

- After the capture of Saddam Hussein, a new Sunni coalition has been
formed, possibly indicating an acceptance on their part that a return to
minority-rule is no longer possible. The coalition, which hinted to having
influence over the insurgents, comprises of Sufis, Salafis and the Muslim
Brotherhood and comes amid continued calls for greater Sunni representation.
- If current representatives are not very representative, then better
representation is required, not disproportionate representation - the seats
on the Governing Council should not be set in stone.
- The coalition seems to be fragile since Sufis are regarded by Salafis as
non-Muslims and the two groups are bitter enemies.
- A raid on a Salafi mosque in Baghdad that is the headquarters of one of
the major groups in the coalition uncovered mortars, grenades, and bomb
making equipment, which throws into question the groups sincerity.

- The gradual maturation of Iraqi politics is seeing the crystallization of
the political spectrum into four groups: Kurdish, Sunni Islamist, Shi'i
Islamist and Secular. The latter group is beginning to become more defined
as a struggle is emerging between Adnan Al-Pachachi and Ayyad Allawi for the
support of ex-Ba'athist groups, the Iraqi Communist Party and the National
Democratic Party. As Iraqi politics develops only one coalition can survive.

- In other news:
- The UN continue to resist calls to send staff back to Baghdad, as the
Governing Council agree with Sayyid Seestani to ask the UN to send a
delegation to assess the feasibility of elections for the transitional
parliament before June 2004.
- Baker's mission is making progress as Russia, China and Japan says they
will forgive most of Iraq's debt.
- The US is planning to create the biggest diplomatic mission in the world
in Baghdad - effectively converting the CPA into the US Embassy. However,
this conversion should not translate into maintenance of CPA power.

News Analysis brought to by the Iraqi Prospect Organisation:
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